Once again I always try to share a clip of Bill, whenever I find one, because his humor is so spot on, despite his rough edges. On Friday, Bill took a wonderful shot at Republican Supply-side pseudo Christian hate group, Focus on the Family, and their bogus predictions of what Obama’s election would bring.
Some of my predictions have been wrong, but I’m a hell of a lot better than 0 for 34!
It’s getting closer as we are now within one month of election day, so here are my latest projections of the Presidential Race, plus I am adding close Senate Races for the first time. If a candidate is 5% or more ahead in the average polls, I called that state for that candidate. Especially because the most recent polls reflect public reactions to neither the Presidential debate, nor the drop in the unemployment rate, these numbers are subject to change.
President:
Even States
State
EV
Obama
Romney
FL
29
47
45
NC
15
48
48
VA
13
48
46
This represents an electoral vote count of 290 to 191 in favor of Barack Obama.
The Senate:
Even Senate
AZ
Carmona – D
43
Flake – R
43
CT
Murphy -D
48
McMahon – R
45
IN
Donnelly -D
40
Mourdock – R
38
MT
Tester – D
45
Rehberg – R
45
ND
Heitkamp – D
47
Berg – R
46
NV
Berkley – D
46
Heller – R
47
TN
Clayton – D
48
Corker – R
51
VA
Kaine – D
47
Allen – R
44
The current tally is:
Democratic 48
Republican 42
Independent 2
Undecided 8
Map credit: 270 to Win
Stats credit: ElectoralVote.com
In the Senate the two leading Independents are Bernie Sanders (VT) and Angus King (ME). Bernie will caucus with the Democrats, and although King’s views are very close to the Democrats, he has not yet committed to caucus with either party.
I used statistics with Rasmussen excluded. Polls determine their mix of Democrats, Republicans and Independents based on self-identification. Because of the Republican shift to the extreme right, some former Republicans now self-identify as Independents, and some former Independents now self-identify as Democrats, reflecting a shift in the electorate. Most polls are including more Democrats and fewer Republicans proportional to that shift in self-identification, as they should. It seems that Rasmussen weights their sample with more Republicans that the actual demographics support, reflecting their Republican bias and skewed results.
Once again, these numbers are subject to change at a moments notice, so this is no reason to relax our efforts to send the Republican party the way of the Whigs.
Whomever you vote for, the most important vote in this election is yours.
Patty is a regular, and you’ll find her excellent comments on virtually every article, almost every day. She comes to us from Care2. This is her fourth Big Mouth Award, having also posted the 28,000th comment in January, the 31,000th comment in May, and the 33,000th comment in July. Patty’s is still a MAJOR Jig Zone predator. Once upon a time, she used to complain that she would never be good enough to beat the average. But she goes after those puzzles with all the zeal of a Republican politician trying to steal a baby’s candy. Now she beats my tail with even more exasperating regularity! Nevertheless, She is a completely welcome fixture here.
Yesterday I went for the ultrasound on my bad leg. The lab was tucked away in large strip mall, and I had to walk over half a mile looking for it. They gave me no directions when I scheduled, but had the gall to be irate that I was ten minutes late. The heat was severe and so was my COPD. Today I’m waiting for an O2 delivery, and fell asleep at my desk, which is why this is late. I’m current with replies. Tomorrow appears routine.
Jig Zone Puzzle:
Today’s took me 4:06 (average 4:25). To do it, click here. How did you do?
Welcome Home!
Welcome back, Lee. You have been missed!!
Religious Agony:
Fantasy Football Report: Our league is Lefty Blog Friends.
Scores:
TomCat Teabag Trashers
Playing without a helmet
116.14
91.06
hugos renegades
Progressive Underdogs
99.00
85.10
MittsMagicJock
Texans Will Rise Again
110.72
61.74
Standings:
Rank
Team Name
W-L-T
Pct
Streak
Waiver
For
Against
1 (1)
TomCat Teabag Trashers
2-0-0
1.000
W2
6
221.92
190.66
2 (2)
hugos renegades
2-0-0
1.000
W2
5
210.36
182.52
3 (3)
Playing without a helmet
1-1-0
.500
L1
4
212.38
211.38
4 (4)
MittsMagicJock
1-1-0
.500
W1
3
208.14
173.10
5 (5)
Progressive Underdogs
0-2-0
.000
L2
2
184.70
204.78
6 (6)
Texans Will Rise Again
0-2-0
.000
L2
1
156.98
232.04
Short Takes:
From MoveOn: What We Already Knew About The Tea Party And ‘The Newsroom’ Finally Said Out Loud
The big secret about the Tea Party is that there is no Tea Party. They are just the goose-stepping storm trooper brigade of the Republican Party.
From Reuters: Some 800 union delegates representing the 29,000 teachers and support staff in Chicago Public Schools met on Sunday but continued the strike for two days so they could review details of a proposed new contract negotiated with Emanuel.
The meeting on Tuesday will be the second attempt by the union membership to try to get approval from delegates for the compromise deal, which must be approved by a simple majority to suspend the strike.
For the sake of Chicago’s students, I hope the deal is good enough, but if not, I support the teachers!
From CNN: The first eight months of 2012 were the hottest ever recorded in the continental United States and the summer period of June, July and August was the third hottest ever, the National Climatic Data Center reported Monday.
Although the August average of 74.4 degrees Fahrenheit made it only the 16th hottest August on record, the hottest July ever combined with the hottest spring on record to keep January-August 2012 atop the record books.
The nation as a whole is averaging 4 degrees Fahrenheit above average for the year. That’s a full degree higher than the same period in 2006, the second hottest January-August on record. [emphasis added]
No wonder it’s been such a tough year!
Cartoon:
Did Willard consider Seamus a lazy moocher too?
With the Presidential Election less than two months away, we have reached the time that projections of results can be closer to reality that they could have been earlier on. To that end I have prepared a 2012 election map with my own projections.
Map credit: 270 to win
I moved MI, MN and WI onto the blue column, because Obama leads all three by over five points in the polls, and because Willard and the Billionaire Bankster PACS have pulled their money from those states.
Given this configuration, Obama leads the electoral vote count 247 to 191 and needs only 23 more to win.
The election will be decided in the eight states that are too close to call. Here are the current polling results for them.
Toss-up States
State
EV
Obama
Romney
CO
9
47.8
45.5
FL
29
47.3
46.7
IA
6
45
44.8
NV
6
49
45.7
NH
4
48.3
44.8
NC
15
45.3
47.3
OH
18
46.2
45.5
VA
13
47.3
46.7
One state, Florida, could put Obama over the top, and he has a small lead there and in all but one of the other seven.
While I consider Obama’s reelection highly likely, that should not be cause for complacency. There is no way for this projection to account for the votes that will not be cast, because of Republican measures to deprive legitimate Democratic voters of their right to vote.
Every Vote Counts
Especially YOURS!
I have frequently given examples here of how the Republican Party is bending head over heels to interfere with your right to vote, if you are old, disables, poor, a minority, a student or a worker. In sharp contrast, Barack Obama and the Democratic Party support voting rights for all qualified voters, regardless of affiliation, and have done this to try to make it easier to register.
Anyone with a website or blog can now easily help register voters for the fall election. You can use the settings at left to customize an embeddable voter registration widget for your website.
Visitors to your site will be able to easily fill out and print the appropriate voter registration form for their state, or register online if their state allows.
Inserted from <BarackObama.com>
You can click through to get this widget for your own site.
Since Republicans frequently threaten to secede, if they don’t get their way, it came to me that there is really no reason to break up the country. Instead, why not give Republicans a planet of their very own? The more I pondered this, it became clear that Mars would be ideal for Republicans and here are ten reasons why.
10) The lighter gravity would make it easier to hold up Donald Trump's hair.
9) They could outlaw Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.
8) They could say global warming is good without lying.
7) Willard could bury his tax returns there.
6) Since Republicans lack curiosity, Curiosity is already there.
5) Methane, which Republicans have in abundance, is ideal for terraforming.
4) Since mars has no intelligent life, Republicans there would change nothing.
3) Republicans would have a whole new world to destroy.
2) Mars is already a red planet.
1) If they were on Mars, they would not be here.
Bye!
© Politics Plus, 2012
I’m still down from excessive heat and my kidney stone. Today should be a little cooler. The low in my apartment last night was 85°. It almost felt cool. I had another excruciatingly painful day, but I passed the stone at long last. What a relief! Today I’ll be recovering. Tomorrow and Thursday I hope to blog, but it will be limited, because I have to take the stone in for analysis tomorrow, and Thursday I have an appointment with a Cardiologist. Please bare with me.
Kudos to the Canadian women’s soccer team. Their game with the US was classic, and even though the US won, neither team deserved to lose.
