It’s getting closer as we are now within one month of election day, so here are my latest projections of the Presidential Race, plus I am adding close Senate Races for the first time. If a candidate is 5% or more ahead in the average polls, I called that state for that candidate. Especially because the most recent polls reflect public reactions to neither the Presidential debate, nor the drop in the unemployment rate, these numbers are subject to change.
President:
Even States
State
EV
Obama
Romney
FL
29
47
45
NC
15
48
48
VA
13
48
46
This represents an electoral vote count of 290 to 191 in favor of Barack Obama.
The Senate:
Even Senate
AZ
Carmona – D
43
Flake – R
43
CT
Murphy -D
48
McMahon – R
45
IN
Donnelly -D
40
Mourdock – R
38
MT
Tester – D
45
Rehberg – R
45
ND
Heitkamp – D
47
Berg – R
46
NV
Berkley – D
46
Heller – R
47
TN
Clayton – D
48
Corker – R
51
VA
Kaine – D
47
Allen – R
44
The current tally is:
Democratic 48
Republican 42
Independent 2
Undecided 8
Map credit: 270 to Win
Stats credit: ElectoralVote.com
In the Senate the two leading Independents are Bernie Sanders (VT) and Angus King (ME). Bernie will caucus with the Democrats, and although King’s views are very close to the Democrats, he has not yet committed to caucus with either party.
I used statistics with Rasmussen excluded. Polls determine their mix of Democrats, Republicans and Independents based on self-identification. Because of the Republican shift to the extreme right, some former Republicans now self-identify as Independents, and some former Independents now self-identify as Democrats, reflecting a shift in the electorate. Most polls are including more Democrats and fewer Republicans proportional to that shift in self-identification, as they should. It seems that Rasmussen weights their sample with more Republicans that the actual demographics support, reflecting their Republican bias and skewed results.
Once again, these numbers are subject to change at a moments notice, so this is no reason to relax our efforts to send the Republican party the way of the Whigs.
Whomever you vote for, the most important vote in this election is yours.
16 Responses to “Election Projection–10/7/2012”
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7-11 says 60 Obama / 40 Romney. They've nailed the last 3 elections. Look for a new polling method.
Welcome Mark. 🙂
And you problem with my methodology is?
Being born in Vermont, Bernie Sanders is the best advocate for the working man… I lived in Maine too and voted for Angus King for Governor years back…. I hope for a bright light of common sense…?
You know him better than I, Richard. What do you think of him?
I look forward to seeing the next Election Projection and the influence of the 1st debate and the good jobs numbers report.
But whatever the polls, the only one that counts is the one at the polling stations on 06/11/2012!
Don't be complacent. Get out the vote!!!!!
The old football cheer goes "Roll 'em back! roll 'em back! Way back!" Well, roll the Republican/Teabaggers into the annals of history never to be spoken about or heard from again!
Vote Democratic 2012!!!! Vote Obama/Biden 2012!!!!!
So do I… with bated breath.
Yes!
Yes!
Amen!!
I know it's not going well for the RepubliCONs because that rat-bastard Rep. John Shimkus (R-IL) has signs out with dark Blue backgrounds & a single row of red & white stars! How stupid does he think we are? Hmm, I Know these people..oh, crap…:(
I have a few other words for that Bastard Shimkus (- R-IL)
I have the worst word of all: Republican!
May you be proven to be a great oracle, Tom.
LOL! Thanks!
Most important now– VOTE!!
Indeed. 🙂
I so hope you are right about the Presidential race. Polls today show Rmoney ahead. Hopefully, our prez will "show up" at the next debate. I wish Bernie Sanders could be my senator.
As of today they are tied at 47 – 47.
I don't put much stock in daily tracking polls, Edie.