We’re getting close to the time to start tracking the Presidential race on a state by state basis, so here’s a suggestion regarding some key states to watch. So far, Obama appears to be ahead in all of them, but that is no excuse for overconfidence. How many of us thought that there was no way America could be so stupid as to let Bush close enough to steal the election in 2004?
Map credit: electoral-vote.com
With just over six months until Election Day, an analysis of the emerging electoral map by The New York Times found that the outcome would most likely be determined by how well President Obama and Mitt Romney perform in nine tossup states.
All nine voted for Mr. Obama in 2008, only to see Republicans make big gains since then.
Now, with many of those states transformed economically and politically by the recession, they are perhaps even less predictable than they were in past close elections. The disparity in their circumstances highlights the challenges that both the Obama and the Romney campaigns face in framing arguments that will resonate across the country.
The nine — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin — offer both parties reasons for hope, and concern. It is no coincidence that Mr. Obama chose two of them, Ohio and Virginia, to hold his first official re-election rallies on Saturday…
Inserted from <Truth-Out>
I encourage you to click through, because the article has much more detailed information.
Every Republican in office is one Republican too many!
13 Responses to “Swing States to Watch”
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Those of us with a Brain in our heads look at what is going on and think no way would the electorate put such a fool as Romney in office—
But- we tend to lose sight of the fact there are a lot bout there who think they are dealing with the GOP of days long gone , instead of the monster it has become– the corporate puppet–
We know how low they have stooped- they will again—The game isnt over until the next inauguration–
Amen, Phylis!
Thanks for the Link to the map site “Electoral Vote”. They ran one in 2008 that rivaled Nate Silver’s 538 in accuracy – and a LOT less wonky than 538.
“The nine — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin — offer both parties reasons for hope, and concern.”
I moved from Maine to Florida three years ago and thank you SoINeedAName for Nate Silver’s reference…
YVW Nameless. I’ve followed them since 2000.
I’m hoping that the states who swung to the right in 2010 have learned their lessons after watching the lunatics in power since then and will swing back our way.
I think there’s an excellent chance that will happen.
Sadly, I see Kentucky is still a red state. We almost always elect a Democratic governor, what is going wrong with us in our national politics?
Good question Edie. Sadly, your Democrats tend to be almost Republican.
“Moody’s Analytics, on the other hand, said that its forecasting model, which is based in part on assumptions about how the economy will perform in each state, predicts that Mr. Obama will be re-elected.”
I sure hope that their prediction record is without equal! Four years of Republican/Teabagger treachery is 4 years too much! My concern are the low-effort “thinking” voters because they are ripe for a trip to Fantasy Island! They will only watch Faux Noise. Faux Noise should be billed as “Public Enemy No. 1”! I never cease to be amazed at the number of times that these low-efforts bring up Mr Obama’s promise to close Gitmo and say he didn’t do what he promised. It would be great if these guys opened their eyes to realise that the Congress passed a bill that meant that could not happen. Some prisoners were shipped to other countries under agreement with those countries, but there were still many left. Congress said that the others could not be brought to the US to stand trial and be incarcerated, so there they are at Gitmo. And that my friends is courtesy of the Republican/Teabagger dominated Congress, likely with the help of a few blue dogs and turncoats.
I find it interesting reading various posts that Americans like their freedom. But with freedom comes responsibility and that is the part where people fall down. People in general do not take seriously their own role in government — that of listening, questioning, suggesting, holding political feet to the fire. They go about their business until election time and then bitch and whine! Well get involved! Vote Democrat 2012!!! Vote Obama/Biden 2012!!! … and hold your Representative’s and Senator’s feet to the fire!
If you don’t try to make a difference, if you don’t listen, question, suggest, and hold feet to the fire, then NOTHING WILL CHANGE!
If you TRY, then you have a chance to change things for the better. If you do NOT try, then you will gain nothing, you will not achieve change.
Very well said. Most Americans could learn from that.
As I look at this map, I am feeling optimistic. Not complacent, mind you; just optimistic. It is up to all of us to restore Democratic rule to all the houses of our government; only then will we start seeing cooperation and the chance for measurable real change.
I agree, but I see little chance for a filibuster proof Senate before 2016.