Everyday Erinyes #353

 Posted by at 4:31 pm  Politics
Jan 152023
 

Experts in autocracies have pointed out that it is, unfortunately, easy to slip into normalizing the tyrant, hence it is important to hang on to outrage. These incidents which seem to call for the efforts of the Greek Furies (Erinyes) to come and deal with them will, I hope, help with that. As a reminder, though no one really knows how many there were supposed to be, the three names we have are Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone. These roughly translate as “unceasing,” “grudging,” and “vengeful destruction.”

I said last week I wasn’t finished with the subject of the Speakership of the House of Representatives. I expect thet after today I will be – for a while. I assume what inspired this article is the fact that the GOP majority in the house is so slender – more so even than our was for the last two years. And McCarthy is no Pelosi. Also, the Republican Party is in rupture, not only in the House, but statewide in most states (if not all of them) and nationally.

As the author points out, deaths happen. Resignations happen, for whatever reasons. And, with this majority, it’s a good bet indictments are going to happen. I don’t know to whom, I don’t know for what crimes, I certainly don’t know for how many. But even if the House decides to stand by its felons, some crimes currently under investigation are such as to constitutionally disqualify the felon from public office.
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Speaker of the House faces political peril from member deaths and resignations – especially with a narrow majority

GOP House leader Kevin McCarthy wants to be speaker of the House.
Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Charles R. Hunt, Boise State University

The arm-twisting, dealmaking and vote hunting around Kevin McCarthy’s quest to be named House speaker have put on full display the fact that razor-thin majorities in both the House and the Senate are becoming a fact of life at the federal level.

In multiple ballots conducted on Jan. 3, 2023 to elect the speaker of the House, McCarthy failed to get the required number of votes. Additional balloting is expected in the race for speaker.

Slim margins might make for dramatic television, but they create legislative and institutional uncertainty that has very real consequences for how Congress is run and how policy gets made.

Because the GOP’s 10-seat House majority is so small, McCarthy has had to placate the moderate wing, the right wing and the far-right wing of his conference – all at the same time – in his quest for the speaker’s gavel.

The GOP’s slim majority may actually get slimmer. This is because of seat vacancies caused by the early departures of members of Congress. These vacancies happen with regularity, and could have major impacts on the Republicans’ legislative agenda over the next two years.

A slim majority means that the Republican leadership can’t afford to lose support from even small groups of members within their party. But each congressional session, some members depart Congress early, leaving vacancies that can complicate party leaders’ efforts to placate their competing factions or blocs. Imagine, for example, that a moderate Republican member dies or resigns in the next few months. Will that person be replaced with another moderate? A Trump-aligned Republican? A Democrat?

With such a small advantage, the potential effect of this replacement is huge – not just for McCarthy, but for Congress as a whole, and the American people, whose lives are affected by legislation passed by Congress.

A flag-draped casket is in the middle of a large, stately hall, surrounded by people.
Visitors file past the flag-draped casket of Rep. Don Young, R-Alaska, as he lies in state in Statuary Hall at the U.S. Capitol on March 29, 2022.
Drew Angerer/Getty Images

How do vacancies occur?

The 117th Congress, which met from Jan. 3, 2021, to Jan. 3, 2023, set a modern record with 15 vacancies, a rate unmatched going back to the 1950s. This was partly because of six member deaths, including Rep. Don Young, R-Alaska, the longest-serving House member at the time. A number of these vacancies occurred in the first days of the 117th, when several Democratic House members, including Cedric Richmond of Louisiana and Marcia Fudge of Ohio, took positions in the new Biden administration.

High-profile vacancies in recent history were due to other causes. Some members were forced to resign because of scandal, like Rep. Jeff Fortenberry, R-Neb., who was convicted in 2022 for lying to the FBI about illegal campaign contributions. Others cut short their current term, leaving Congress after losing their primaries, as Rep. Eric Cantor, a Virginia Republican, did in 2014. House Speaker John Boehner, a Republican from Ohio, resigned after facing threats of being ousted from leadership in 2015.

And although the 117th was a banner Congress for vacancies, the historical data demonstrates that they happen all the time. Based on my analysis, there are usually at least a handful of vacancies per two-year congressional cycle.

Resignation is the most common reason for departure in recent Congresses. However, at least one member – and often more than one – has died in all but one Congress in the past 70 years. The number of deaths that regularly occur among members is more than sufficient to change how the majority party functions in a closely contested Congress like this one.

This potentially leaves party leaders captive to some particular interest, either in their party or in the opposition party.

How are vacancies filled?

Although U.S. Senate vacancies are often – though not always – filled through an appointment by the governor of that state, the Constitution mandates that House vacancies be filled by special elections scheduled by the governor.

These elections usually happen within a few months of the vacancy. What this means is that there are real possibilities for the size of a party’s majority to shrink, or grow, between election years. And even if a majority party shift doesn’t happen, a district could still replace a moderate departing representative with an extremist, or vice versa.

Special elections have received significant focus from the media and the public in recent years. That’s mainly because their results, when compared with the most recent result for that seat, can be bellwethers for how the next set of congressional elections will turn out.

For example, a number of special elections throughout 2022 — including the Alaska race to replace Young — showed even or Democratic-leaning results compared with 2020, giving early indications that the “red wave” many experts predicted would not actually materialize.

Speaker of the House John Boehner, a Republican, announced his resignation from Congress on Sept. 25, 2015, and gave this speech.

What does this mean for the 118th Congress?

A vacating member, and the special election that decides a successor, is not just an electoral crystal ball. It can have major implications for the balance of power in Congress; any GOP leader will have to manage these implications.

On the right, there is the 44-member House Freedom Caucus and, more specifically, the “MAGA Squad” – think Lauren Boebert, Matt Gaetz and Andy Biggs. To the left, there’s a swath of more moderate Republicans from such states as New York and Ohio with no intention of letting far-right firebrand Marjorie Taylor Greene control the agenda.

These are two factions of Republicans who want vastly different action in the 118th Congress. The moderate bloc understands that, with a Democratic Senate and Joe Biden as president, compromise with Democrats may be necessary for legislative achievement.

Meanwhile, the far-right bloc has made other priorities clear, such as relentlessly investigating Biden, his administration and his family. Managing these competing demands will be hard enough for the new House speaker and unexpected vacancies could make the task even harder.

Beyond the tensions among Republicans, Democrats will be ready to pounce on any opportunity to divide and conquer. The recent revelations surrounding incoming Rep. George Santos, a Republican from New York, who allegedly fabricated huge portions of his résumé and personal story during his campaign, represent one such potential opportunity. If Santos is forced to resign, a Democratic victory in a special election in his Long Island swing district could cut the GOP’s majority from 10 to eight.

Even if special elections don’t change a party’s control over certain seats, vacancies can and will throw the 118th House of Representatives into chaos by shifting the balance of power from one ideological bloc to another. More chaos, that is, than it is already enduring.The Conversation

Charles R. Hunt, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Boise State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone, personally, I look forward to legal actions which will shrink the Republican majority, possibly even turn it into a minority. And he made the concession that it takes just one person now to move to vacate the chair.

The Furies and I will be back.

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Jan 072023
 

Glenn Kirschner – DOJ’s inaction allows Donald Trump to AGAIN victimize GA election workers Shaye Moss & Ruby Freeman

The Lincoln Project – McCarthy (v)

Ring of Fire – Lauren Boebert Brags About Republicans Removing Metal Detectors From Congress

Robert Reich – Behind the Silence on Record Corporate Profits

Watch This Little Bird Sneak Up On His Butterfly Siblings

Beau – Let’s talk about Biden, negotiations, and the briar patch….

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Jan 072023
 

Yesterday, the Daily Beast newsletter was a gosip rag, and Steve Schmidt wrote about January 6. Rep. Scott Perry told us that the adage “Be nice to people you meet on the way up; you’ll meet them again on the way down” even applies to Republicans like Kevin McCarthy. In other news, Bold Progressives is collecting signatures for a Get-Well message to Jamie Raskin.

Also yesterday, my new space heater (and a spare) arrived 5 days earlier than promised. They are larger than I expected but they fit in the space, and they are most definitely adequate for the job. So I expect to be able to qui wearing socks with my (faux of course) fur lined shoes and boots.

And I would add Cavin’Kevin was finally elected on the 15th ballot … but it was after midnight in DC, so it actually happened today.

Cartoon – 07 7Cartoon.jpg

Short Takes –

Crooks and Liars – Now It’s The Proud Boys’ Turn To Find Out
Quote – The seditious conspiracy trial of Proud Boys leader Henry “Enrique” Tarrio and four [other] members of the Proud Boys … is underway. Opening statements have not yet begun, however. Instead, jury selection has moved at a glacial pace at the federal courthouse in Washington, D.C…. [They] face nine charges apiece including seditious conspiracy; conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding; obstruction of an official proceeding; conspiracy to prevent an officer from discharging their duties; obstruction of law enforcement during a civil disorder; destruction of government property; and aiding and abetting, and assaulting, resisting, or impeding officers.
Click through for story. The seating of the jury is taking longer, because the Proud Boys are a tad more notorious than the Oath Keepers – otherwise, we can hope this trial will go pretty much like that one.

Wonkette – Dipsh*ts Charged In Christmas Attacks On Four Washington Substations
Quote – Matthew Greenwood, 32, and Jeremy Crahan, 40, were charged in federal court Tuesday with conspiracy to damage energy facilities, and Greenwood also caught charges of possessing unregistered firearms. When Greenwood was arrested, he was found with an illegally modified short-barreled rifle with a homemade silencer, as well as a short-barreled shotgun, neither registered as required by law. In the Justice Department press release announcing the charges, US Attorney Nick Brown noted, “We have seen attacks such as these increase in Western Washington and throughout the country and must treat each incident seriously. The outages on Christmas left thousands in the dark and cold and put some who need power for medical devices at extreme risk.”
Click through for details. Basically, these people are murderers who are too cowadly to face their victims. There are colder places than Western Washington (the ocean to its west gives it some protection from the kind of blizzarda and sub-zero temperatures we see on the prairie and in the northeast) but it can still get cold enough fot hypothermia to kill- even if one doesn’t need oxygen or other electric-powered medical support.

Food For Thought

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Jan 062023
 

So Glenn didn’t take a day off when i originally thought he did … but he did take New Years Day off – and now that the legal recap is up, I need to use this – Glenn Kirschner: Is There an Intersection Between Trump & The Proud Boys? Can a Court Prove it?

Meidas Touch – REVEALED: What did AOC and Matt Gaetz DISCUSS on House Floor?

Political Voices Network – Andrew Weissmann & Harry Litman: Texts Sent by Aides Detail Chaos of Trump’s Final Days in Office

Farron Balanced – Republican Election Official Pleads Guilty To Massive Voter Fraud

Stray Cats Become Inseparable Once Adopted

Beau – Let’s talk about whether it’s time to stop covering Trump….

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