Yesterday, I received a petition from Faithful America. Here is a link. I’m not specifically asking anyone here to sign the petition, though of course you can if so moved. Instead, what I want y’all to see here is the back story, and specifically the words of the church’s pastor. TomCat would have been as proud of this statement as I am. He from time to time wrote about authentic Christians as opposed to pseudo-Christians. Both kinds are all over, without regard to denomination or the frequency with which they “go to church.”
This is a guest post to Wonkette by Ali Davis. I don’t know the correct pronouns, so I’ll use they/them. Ali has their own Substack, which appears new, (only 2 posts there including this one), but appears to be speaking toRepublicans, particularly Congressional Republicans, who are closet ant-Trumpers. I don’t know how to get their posts in the attention of the intended audience (I’m pretty sure that Wonkette is not it, but I appreciate Wonkette republishing it so we can read it), but between this one and the first one (which I found by clicking on the live link on their name at the bottom of the post), I can say they address the real issues that no one else is speaking about to that intended audience, and quite frankly too. If you have a Republican Congresscritter or Senator who at least used to be halfway sane, you could do worse than sneak a copy of either article, or both articles, to them.
I may not need that sarcasm tag for this blog, but I want to be sure no one has even a single-point rise in blood pressure from The F* News here. Certainly as you read you’ll see where he’s going with this – “put up or shut up” and there’s nothing to put up. It’s cleverly done, certainly.
Experts in autocracies have pointed out that it is, unfortunately, easy to slip into normalizing the tyrant, hence it is important to hang on to outrage. These incidents which seem to call for the efforts of the Greek Furies (Erinyes) to come and deal with them will, I hope, help with that. As a reminder, though no one really knows how many there were supposed to be, the three names we have are Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone. These roughly translate as “unceasing,” “grudging,” and “vengeful destruction.”
Republicans (by whatever name, and throughout history) do tend to buy into conspiracy theories, whereas Democrats (throughouy history and by whatever name) generally do not – not even if there is evidence – not even if the conspiracy is real. Because some conspiracies are real. People do work together in groups if nexessary to get something done which can be accomplished no other way. We are humans, and that’s what we do. And, if whatever that something is, is illegal (or maybe just discreditable), that’s a conspiracy. I remember when Hillary spoke of a vast right-wing conspiracy and was universally mocked. But subsequent events have shown that, though not 100% correct in all details, she was right. But you won’t hear a Democrat today allow the phrase “right-wing conspiracy” pass his or her lips.
==============================================================
A protester holds a Q sign as he waits to enter a campaign rally with then-President Donald Trump in Wilkes-Barre, Pa., in August 2018. AP Photo/Matt Rourke
But the “golden age” of conspiracy theories, it seems, is now. On June 24, 2022, the unknown leader of the QAnon conspiracy theory posted online for the first time in over a year. QAnon’s enthusiasts tend to be ardent supporters of Donald Trump, who made conspiracy theories a signature feature of his political brand, from Pizzagate and QAnon to “Stop the Steal” and the racist “birther” movement. Key themes in conspiracy theories – like a sinister network of “pedophiles” and “groomers,” shadowy “bankers” and “globalists” – have moved into the mainstream of right-wing talking points.
Much of the commentary on conspiracy theories presumes that followers simply have bad information, or not enough, and that they can be helped along with a better diet of facts.
But anyone who talks to conspiracy theorists knows that they’re never short on details, or at least “alternative facts.” They have plenty of information, but they insist that it be interpreted in a particular way – the way that feels most exciting.
My research focuses on how emotion drives human experience, including strong beliefs. In my latest book, I argue that confronting conspiracy theories requires understanding the feelings that make them so appealing – and the way those feelings shape what seems reasonable to devotees. If we want to understand why people believe what they believe, we need to look not just at the content of their thoughts, but how that information feels to them. Just as the “X-Files” predicted, conspiracy theories’ acolytes “want to believe.”
Over 100 years ago, the American psychologist William Jamesnoted: “The transition from a state of perplexity to one of resolve is full of lively pleasure and relief.” In other words, confusion doesn’t feel good, but certainty certainly does.
James called this the “sentiment of rationality”: the feelings that go along with thinking. People often talk about thinking and feeling as though they’re separate, but James realized that they’re inextricably related.
For instance, he believed that the best science was driven forward by the excitement of discovery – which he said was “caviar” for scientists – but also anxiety about getting things wrong.
So how does conspiracy theory feel? First of all, it lets you feel like you’re smarter than everyone. Political scientist Michael Barkun points out that conspiracy theory devotees love what he calls “stigmatized knowledge,” sources that are obscure or even looked down upon.
In fact, the more obscure the source is, the more true believers want to trust it. This is the stock in trade of popular podcast “The Joe Rogan Experience” – “scientists” who present themselves as the lone voice in the wilderness and are somehow seen as more credible because they’ve been repudiated by their colleagues. Ninety-eight percent of scientists may agree on something, but the conspiracy mindset imagines the other 2% are really on to something. This allows conspiracists to see themselves as “critical thinkers” who have separated themselves from the pack, rather than outliers who have fallen for a snake oil pitch.
One of the most exciting parts of a conspiracy theory is that it makes everything make sense. We all know the pleasure of solving a puzzle: the “click” of satisfaction when you complete a Wordle, crossword or sudoku. But of course, the whole point of games is that they simplify things. Detective shows are the same: All the clues are right there on the screen.
Powerful appeal
But what if the whole world were like that? In essence, that’s the illusion of conspiracy theory. All the answers are there, and everything fits with everything else. The big players are sinister and devious – but not as smart as you.
QAnon works like a massive live-action video game in which a showrunner teases viewers with tantalizing clues. Followers make every detail into something profoundly significant.
When Donald Trump announced his COVID-19 diagnosis, for instance, he tweeted, “We will get through this TOGETHER.” QAnon followers saw this as a signal that their long-sought endgame – Hillary Clinton arrested and convicted of unspeakable crimes – was finally in play. They thought the capitalized word “TOGETHER” was code for “TO GET HER,” and that Trump was saying that his diagnosis was a feint in order to beat the “deep state.” For devotees, it was a perfectly crafted puzzle with a neatly thrilling solution.
It’s also key to avoid saying that conspiracy theories are “simply” irrational or emotional. What James realized is that all thinking is related to feeling – whether we’re learning about the world in useful ways or whether we’re being led astray by our own biases. As cultural theorist Lauren Berlantwrote in 2016, “All the messages are emotional,” no matter which political party they come from.
Conspiracy theories encourage their followers to see themselves as the only ones with their eyes open, and everyone else as “sheeple.” But paradoxically, this fantasy leads to self-delusion – and helping followers recognize that can be a first step. Unraveling their beliefs requires the patient work of persuading devotees that the world is just a more boring, more random, less interesting place than one might have hoped.
Part of why conspiracy theories have such a strong hold is that they have flashes of truth: There really are elites who hold themselves above the law; there really is exploitation, violence and inequality. But the best way to unmask abuses of power isn’t to take shortcuts – a critical point in “Conspiracy Theory Handbook,” a guide to combating them that was written by experts on climate change denial.
To make progress, we have to patiently prove what’s happening – to research, learn and find the most plausible interpretation of the evidence, not the one that’s most fun.
============================================================== Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone, yes, conspiracy theories are exciting. And therefore can be dangerous. But can it not also be dangerous, maybe even more dangerous, to ignore a real conspiracy which is fully or practically right out in the open? Sure, if you are hooked on living (and governing) by reason and compassion and equality, excitement – or at least that kind of excitement – can be uncomfortable or worse.. But not nearly as uncomfortable as living in a fascist theocracy. If we want to reach more people, to have a big tent, to fill it with people who are not exactly like us, we need to learn to make our messaging more exciting. And it certainly would not hurt to expose a few right wing conspiracies and cabals along the way.
Experts in autocracies have pointed out that it is, unfortunately, easy to slip into normalizing the tyrant, hence it is important to hang on to outrage. These incidents which seem to call for the efforts of the Greek Furies (Erinyes) to come and deal with them will, I hope, help with that. As a reminder, though no one really knows how many there were supposed to be, the three names we have are Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone. These roughly translate as “unceasing,” “grudging,” and “vengeful destruction.”
I saw a wicked good article on QAnon last week, written by a game designer. If you have time you should really look at it. But here’s a quote which gives you the key takeaway:
“When I saw QAnon, I knew exactly what it was and what it was doing. I had seen it before. I had almost built it before. It was gaming’s evil twin. A game that plays people.” Cue ominous music:
While we probably can train ourselves to be on the alert for telltale signs of phony conspiracies, not everyone has the time or the disposition. That’s why I was so relieved to see the article which follows:
================================================================
An AI tool can distinguish between a conspiracy theory and a true conspiracy – it comes down to how easily the story falls apart
In the age of social media, conspiracy theories are collective creations. AP Photo/Ted S. Warren
The audio on the otherwise shaky body camera footage is unusually clear. As police officers search a handcuffed man who moments before had fired a shot inside a pizza parlor, an officer asks him why he was there. The man says to investigate a pedophile ring. Incredulous, the officer asks again. Another officer chimes in, “Pizzagate. He’s talking about Pizzagate.”
In that brief, chilling interaction in 2016, it becomes clear that conspiracy theories, long relegated to the fringes of society, had moved into the real world in a very dangerous way.
Conspiracy theories, which have the potential to cause significant harm, have found a welcome home on social media, where forums free from moderation allow like-minded individuals to converse. There they can develop their theories and propose actions to counteract the threats they “uncover.”
But how can you tell if an emerging narrative on social media is an unfounded conspiracy theory? It turns out that it’s possible to distinguish between conspiracy theories and true conspiracies by using machine learning tools to graph the elements and connections of a narrative. These tools could form the basis of an early warning system to alert authorities to online narratives that pose a threat in the real world.
The culture analytics group at the University of California, which I and Vwani Roychowdhury lead, has developed an automated approach to determining when conversations on social media reflect the telltale signs of conspiracy theorizing. We have applied these methods successfully to the study of Pizzagate, the COVID-19 pandemic and anti-vaccination movements. We’re currently using these methods to study QAnon.
Collaboratively constructed, fast to form
Actual conspiracies are deliberately hidden, real-life actions of people working together for their own malign purposes. In contrast, conspiracy theories are collaboratively constructed and develop in the open.
Conspiracy theories are deliberately complex and reflect an all-encompassing worldview. Instead of trying to explain one thing, a conspiracy theory tries to explain everything, discovering connections across domains of human interaction that are otherwise hidden – mostly because they do not exist.
People are susceptible to conspiracy theories by nature, and periods of uncertainty and heightened anxiety increase that susceptibility.
While the popular image of the conspiracy theorist is of a lone wolf piecing together puzzling connections with photographs and red string, that image no longer applies in the age of social media. Conspiracy theorizing has moved online and is now the end-product of a collective storytelling. The participants work out the parameters of a narrative framework: the people, places and things of a story and their relationships.
The online nature of conspiracy theorizing provides an opportunity for researchers to trace the development of these theories from their origins as a series of often disjointed rumors and story pieces to a comprehensive narrative. For our work, Pizzagate presented the perfect subject.
Pizzagate began to develop in late October 2016 during the runup to the presidential election. Within a month, it was fully formed, with a complete cast of characters drawn from a series of otherwise unlinked domains: Democratic politics, the private lives of the Podesta brothers, casual family dining and satanic pedophilic trafficking. The connecting narrative thread among these otherwise disparate domains was the fanciful interpretation of the leaked emails of the Democratic National Committee dumped by WikiLeaks in the final week of October 2016.
AI narrative analysis
We developed a model – a set of machine learning tools – that can identify narratives based on sets of people, places and things and their relationships. Machine learning algorithms process large amounts of data to determine the categories of things in the data and then identify which categories particular things belong to.
We analyzed 17,498 posts from April 2016 through February 2018 on the Reddit and 4chan forums where Pizzagate was discussed. The model treats each post as a fragment of a hidden story and sets about to uncover the narrative. The software identifies the people, places and things in the posts and determines which are major elements, which are minor elements and how they’re all connected.
The model determines the main layers of the narrative – in the case of Pizzagate, Democratic politics, the Podesta brothers, casual dining, satanism and WikiLeaks – and how the layers come together to form the narrative as a whole.
To ensure that our methods produced accurate output, we compared the narrative framework graph produced by our model with illustrations published in The New York Times. Our graph aligned with those illustrations, and also offered finer levels of detail about the people, places and things and their relationships.
Sturdy truth, fragile fiction
To see if we could distinguish between a conspiracy theory and an actual conspiracy, we examined Bridgegate, a political payback operation launched by staff members of Republican Gov. Chris Christie’s administration against the Democratic mayor of Fort Lee, New Jersey.
As we compared the results of our machine learning system using the two separate collections, two distinguishing features of a conspiracy theory’s narrative framework stood out.
First, while the narrative graph for Bridgegate took from 2013 to 2020 to develop, Pizzagate’s graph was fully formed and stable within a month. Second, Bridgegate’s graph survived having elements removed, implying that New Jersey politics would continue as a single, connected network even if key figures and relationships from the scandal were deleted.
The Pizzagate graph, in contrast, was easily fractured into smaller subgraphs. When we removed the people, places, things and relationships that came directly from the interpretations of the WikiLeaks emails, the graph fell apart into what in reality were the unconnected domains of politics, casual dining, the private lives of the Podestas and the odd world of satanism.
In the illustration below, the green planes are the major layers of the narrative, the dots are the major elements of the narrative, the blue lines are connections among elements within a layer and the red lines are connections among elements across the layers. The purple plane shows all the layers combined, showing how the dots are all connected. Removing the WikiLeaks plane yields a purple plane with dots connected only in small groups.
The layers of the Pizzagate conspiracy theory combine to form a narrative, top right. Remove one layer, the fanciful interpretations of emails released by WikiLeaks, and the whole story falls apart, bottom right. Tangherlini, et al., CC BY
Early warning system?
There are clear ethical challenges that our work raises. Our methods, for instance, could be used to generate additional posts to a conspiracy theory discussion that fit the narrative framework at the root of the discussion. Similarly, given any set of domains, someone could use the tool to develop an entirely new conspiracy theory.
However, this weaponization of storytelling is already occurring without automatic methods, as our study of social media forums makes clear. There is a role for the research community to help others understand how that weaponization occurs and to develop tools for people and organizations who protect public safety and democratic institutions.
Developing an early warning system that tracks the emergence and alignment of conspiracy theory narratives could alert researchers – and authorities – to real-world actions people might take based on these narratives. Perhaps with such a system in place, the arresting officer in the Pizzagate case would not have been baffled by the gunman’s response when asked why he’d shown up at a pizza parlor armed with an AR-15 rifle.
================================================================ Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone, the best science and technology in the world underperforms (to say the least) if people don’t believe it, don’t use it, won’t use it. Some conspiracies are real. More are not. I hope you can put a fire under all of us to use the technology and trust the results.
It’s a busy tired day here in the CatBox. The infusions still bring fatigue, but it’s not as severe as it was. But today is a grocery delivery day, and putting them all away will be a lot of work. Tomorrow Diana is coming to change my patch, but I should be able to do a full Open Thread then. The big question for the day is this: How will Injustice Amy Coney Blowjob interface with Injustice Pervert Nookie KavaNazi? (Update: groceries are stowed.)
Jig Zone Puzzle:
Today’s took me 4:29 (average 6:08). To do it, click here. How did you do?
Cartoon:
Trump* Virus Update:
US Cases: 9,125,714 US Deaths: 233,172 Plus all Trump*/GOP plague murders Republicans are hiding
It’s unusual that anyone shares parody as good as Don’s work. We are blessed that Don has shared this with is. Thank You! Speak the name Biden instead! RESIST!!
From YouTube (Raw Story Channel): MSNBC host shuts down Trump adviser: ‘Hunter Biden isn’t running for president’
Good job! All reporters need to shut down all Republican propagandists when they spread bullshit. That is, whenever they speak! RESIST!!
From YouTube (a blast from the past): Don’t Think Twice It’s All Right – Bob Dylan
It’s another tired day, here in the CatBox. My meeting with Diana yesterday was Routine, as was grocery delivery, but by the time I finally got to bed I was too tired to sleep well last night, so I’m really shot today. Deborah, my Home health doctor is coming this morning for my routine monthly checkup. I am gradually expanding my diet, so that if I do have a problem, I’ll know what caused it. This morning I had pancakes for breakfast. Wow! They were almost as good as a dawg! Tomorrow I have nothing extra to do, and Sunday is a morning WWWendy day. TGIF!
Jig Zone Puzzle:
Today’s took me 3:12 (average 4:46). To do it, click here. How did you do?
Cartoon:
Trump* Virus Update:
US Cases: 8,223,181 US Deaths: 222,836 Plus all the Trump*/GOP plague murders Republicans are hiding from us
Short Takes:
From Crooks and Liars: A ruling by Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett that whitewashed racism in the workplace shocked the Internet this week.
According to the the [sic] report, Barrett said that there was no evidence that use of the n-word “created a hostile or abusive working environment.”
The AP reported:
“The n-word is an egregious racial epithet,” Barrett wrote in Smith v. Illinois Department of Transportation. “That said, Smith can’t win simply by proving that the word was uttered. He must also demonstrate that Colbert’s use of this word altered the conditions of his employment and created a hostile or abusive working environment.”
According to Barrett’s racist Republican perspective, this is the mere exercise of their God given right and patriotic duty to hate Blacks. RESIST!!
From YouTube (MSNBC Channel): Trump Fuels Range Of Conspiracy Theories With Town Hall Answers
Bad as these are, Criminal Fuhrer Trump* is hammering on absurd conspiracy theories because there is nothing else he could say that wouldn’t be even worse for his electoral prospects. RESIST!!
From YouTube (a blast from the past): Neil Young – Heart Of Gold
