Yesterday, I got to see Virgil – and we got the deck of cards. It was just us for a while, but by the time I left 5 others inmates had received visitors (the guests included two toddlers, but not more than one at a time. I’m sure no one planned that – it was just a matter of who could get there when and who had to leave when.) Colleen remarked she hoped the weather was nice, and it was – for me. It was cold but not freezing, and there was no precipitation, but lots of cloud cover. I know, it sounds dismal – but it meant I didn’t have to have sun in my eyes driving back, but it was plenty light enough to see to drive. Actually there was a teeny tiny bit of rain, but so little that the slowest wiper speed (the one that is one slow swipe and then a fifteen second pause) took care of it, and it lasted less than three minutes total.
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SPLC – Unhealthy Homes: ‘Gutted’ New Orleans ordinance allows landlords to neglect run-down properties
Quote – “I can’t imagine having to put in a card opposing a healthy homes ordinance offered by the city of New Orleans, but we find ourselves here today after this very effective and very essential legislation has been effectively gutted by the vote you just took,” HousingNOLA Executive Director Andreanecia Morris told Morrell at the city council meeting where the revised ordinance was adopted. “We rise in opposition. What you have today is not good enough. It is not good enough for the people of New Orleans.” Click through for story. And we all know those most affected will be the most vulnerable. Is there an emoji for spitting in disgust?
Salon – Ex-GOP candidate’s wife hit with 52 felony charges after casting 23 votes for husband: DOJ
Quote – Her actions took place ahead of the June 2020 primary election, in which Jeremy Taylor unsuccessfully ran for the Republican nomination for Iowa’s 4th District Congressional seat as well as during the November general election in which Taylor defeated incumbent Democrat Marty Pottebaum for the District 3 seat on the county board. Click through for details. More than one election was affected by thiese shenanigans.
Experts in autocracies have pointed out that it is, unfortunately, easy to slip into normalizing the tyrant, hence it is important to hang on to outrage. These incidents which seem to call for the efforts of the Greek Furies (Erinyes) to come and deal with them will, I hope, help with that. As a reminder, though no one really knows how many there were supposed to be, the three names we have are Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone. These roughly translate as “unceasing,” “grudging,” and “vengeful destruction.”
I said last week I wasn’t finished with the subject of the Speakership of the House of Representatives. I expect thet after today I will be – for a while. I assume what inspired this article is the fact that the GOP majority in the house is so slender – more so even than our was for the last two years. And McCarthy is no Pelosi. Also, the Republican Party is in rupture, not only in the House, but statewide in most states (if not all of them) and nationally.
As the author points out, deaths happen. Resignations happen, for whatever reasons. And, with this majority, it’s a good bet indictments are going to happen. I don’t know to whom, I don’t know for what crimes, I certainly don’t know for how many. But even if the House decides to stand by its felons, some crimes currently under investigation are such as to constitutionally disqualify the felon from public office.
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Speaker of the House faces political peril from member deaths and resignations – especially with a narrow majority
The arm-twisting, dealmaking and vote hunting around Kevin McCarthy’s quest to be named House speaker have put on full display the fact that razor-thin majorities in both the House and the Senate are becoming a fact of life at the federal level.
In multiple ballots conducted on Jan. 3, 2023 to elect the speaker of the House, McCarthy failed to get the required number of votes. Additional balloting is expected in the race for speaker.
Slim margins might make for dramatic television, but they create legislative and institutional uncertainty that has very real consequences for how Congress is run and how policy gets made.
The GOP’s slim majority may actually get slimmer. This is because of seat vacancies caused by the early departures of members of Congress. These vacancies happen with regularity, and could have major impacts on the Republicans’ legislative agenda over the next two years.
A slim majority means that the Republican leadership can’t afford to lose support from even small groups of members within their party. But each congressional session, some members depart Congress early, leaving vacancies that can complicate party leaders’ efforts to placate their competing factions or blocs. Imagine, for example, that a moderate Republican member dies or resigns in the next few months. Will that person be replaced with another moderate? A Trump-aligned Republican? A Democrat?
With such a small advantage, the potential effect of this replacement is huge – not just for McCarthy, but for Congress as a whole, and the American people, whose lives are affected by legislation passed by Congress.
Visitors file past the flag-draped casket of Rep. Don Young, R-Alaska, as he lies in state in Statuary Hall at the U.S. Capitol on March 29, 2022. Drew Angerer/Getty Images
How do vacancies occur?
The 117th Congress, which met from Jan. 3, 2021, to Jan. 3, 2023, set a modern record with 15 vacancies, a rate unmatched going back to the 1950s. This was partly because of six member deaths, including Rep. Don Young, R-Alaska, the longest-serving House member at the time. A number of these vacancies occurred in the first days of the 117th, when several Democratic House members, including Cedric Richmond of Louisiana and Marcia Fudge of Ohio, took positions in the new Biden administration.
And although the 117th was a banner Congress for vacancies, the historical data demonstrates that they happen all the time. Based on my analysis, there are usually at least a handful of vacancies per two-year congressional cycle.
Resignation is the most common reason for departure in recent Congresses. However, at least one member – and often more than one – has died in all but one Congress in the past 70 years. The number of deaths that regularly occur among members is more than sufficient to change how the majority party functions in a closely contested Congress like this one.
This potentially leaves party leaders captive to some particular interest, either in their party or in the opposition party.
These elections usually happen within a few months of the vacancy. What this means is that there are real possibilities for the size of a party’s majority to shrink, or grow, between election years. And even if a majority party shift doesn’t happen, a district could still replace a moderate departing representative with an extremist, or vice versa.
Special elections have received significant focus from the media and the public in recent years. That’s mainly because their results, when compared with the most recent result for that seat, can be bellwethers for how the next set of congressional elections will turn out.
For example, a number of special elections throughout 2022 — including the Alaska race to replace Young — showed even or Democratic-leaning results compared with 2020, giving early indications that the “red wave” many experts predicted would not actually materialize.
Speaker of the House John Boehner, a Republican, announced his resignation from Congress on Sept. 25, 2015, and gave this speech.
What does this mean for the 118th Congress?
A vacating member, and the special election that decides a successor, is not just an electoral crystal ball. It can have major implications for the balance of power in Congress; any GOP leader will have to manage these implications.
On the right, there is the 44-member House Freedom Caucus and, more specifically, the “MAGA Squad” – think Lauren Boebert, Matt Gaetz and Andy Biggs. To the left, there’s a swath of more moderate Republicans from such states as New York and Ohio with no intention of letting far-right firebrand Marjorie Taylor Greene control the agenda.
These are two factions of Republicans who want vastly different action in the 118th Congress. The moderate bloc understands that, with a Democratic Senate and Joe Biden as president, compromise with Democrats may be necessary for legislative achievement.
Meanwhile, the far-right bloc has made other priorities clear, such as relentlessly investigating Biden, his administration and his family. Managing these competing demands will be hard enough for the new House speaker and unexpected vacancies could make the task even harder.
Beyond the tensions among Republicans, Democrats will be ready to pounce on any opportunity to divide and conquer. The recent revelations surrounding incoming Rep. George Santos, a Republican from New York, who allegedly fabricated huge portions of his résumé and personal story during his campaign, represent one such potential opportunity. If Santos is forced to resign, a Democratic victory in a special election in his Long Island swing district could cut the GOP’s majority from 10 to eight.
Even if special elections don’t change a party’s control over certain seats, vacancies can and will throw the 118th House of Representatives into chaos by shifting the balance of power from one ideological bloc to another. More chaos, that is, than it is already enduring.
============================================================== Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone, personally, I look forward to legal actions which will shrink the Republican majority, possibly even turn it into a minority. And he made the concession that it takes just one person now to move to vacate the chair.
Glenn Kirschner – Trump Organization sentenced. Next up, NY AG Tish James suit against Trump Org AND Tump personally
Thom Hartmann – What Really Happened During McCarthy’s ‘Battle for the Gavel’ Featuring Rep. Mark Pocan (title not 100% accurate, but some interesting points made)
Farron Balanced – Giuliani Hit With Subpoena As Special Prosecutor ‘Follows The Money’
Robert Reich – Do We Have to Bribe Corporations to Do What’s Right?
Pittie Puppy Rescued From The Worst Owner Smiles Through Every Setback
Beau – Let’s talk about Georgia and the Special Grand Jury….
Yesterday, the radio opera was “Fedora” by Umberto Giordano. It’s his second-best-known opera, the best-known one being “Andrea Chenier,” set during the French Revolution. “Fedora, based on a play by Sardou (right up there with Victor Hugo and David Belasco as an operatic inspiration) set in Russia in the 1880s, a time and place when the local political bogeyman was “Nihilism.” Fedora is a Russian noblewoman whose feance is killed on the eve of their wedding. After the arrival of the police and on-stage questioning of the servants, she comes to the conclusion that Count Ipanov did it – he was a nihilist sympathizer and her fiance a trarist. Learning Ipanov has gone to Paris, she decides to go there and attempt to seduce him to get a confession. Well, she gets a particl confesion, and invites him to come to her room and tell her the whole story. While awaiting him, she writes and posts a “come-and-get-him” letter to the police in Russia. When he arrives, he tells her that her fiance and his wife were having an affair, and that he caught them in flagrante and killed him (and he shot first). Between this news and the fact that Ipanov is basically a decent guy, she falls in love with him. But it’s too late – the letter is already gone. Eventually she has to confess that the “Russian woman” whose information sicced the cops on him is she – whereupon she takes poison and dis. It’s a “diva vehicle” which has been championed by Maria Callas and Mirella Freni, among others. An influential singer certainly can use her or his influence to get an opera performed which has been overlooked, but ultimately it’s the operagoers who decide whether any opera, new or revived, will make it into standard repertory. After those two strong attempts in the 20th century I’m not expecting this one in the 21st century to succeed, but I could be wrong – it’s a very strong cast. The Met audience is changing, if the choices each season are any indication. It’s becoming moch more interested in new operas, and much more open to the work of black composers, and to women conductors. There are still many who are older and fond of the old standard rep, which definitely shows up when there is voting on what old recording should be played on the “Listeners Choice” weekend. But that audience is dying off, and in any case, I suspect there are more than one would expect who, like me, are very open to the new stuff. Maybe if I live long enough a star tenor will come along who believes in “The Great Gatsby” by John Harbison, and I can hear it once more. Or a star baritone who believes in “An American Tragedy” by Tobias Picker, and I can hear it for the first tiem – since the mamager of the local radio station when it was a matinee was too cowardly to air it when it was broadcast.
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PolitiZoom – Closest Trump Allies Assert Biden was Set Up in Docs Case – Why?
Quote – Little did I know as I wrote yesterday that two of Trump’s closest allies in the public sphere, blowhard Sean Hannityjob and failed Surgeon General aspirant Adm. Ronny Jackson would take to the airwaves and do precisely what I decided to do not – circulate conspiracy theories about the placement and uncovering of the classified documents in question…. Now why, when the simple facts, as known, in the case are already so damaging to the President, would two of his biggest and most ardent supporters take to the airways to suggest in any way that Biden was not responsible for the security breech? Click through for story. I admit it occurred to me, and, based on Lona’s comment on Thursday’s video thread, it appears to have occurred to her. Of course the idea that the setup could have been done by Democrats is pure projection. You might, if you looked really hard, find a Democrat or two who might contemplate it, but it would not be anyone in leadership, and the leadership would not permit it even if someone had the temerity to suggest it. Do they know that it was done, done by them, and are they pre-emptively trying to look innocent?
HuffPost – Here’s The Real Agenda Behind The Republican Debt Ceiling Threats
Quote – As McCarthy explained it, “one of the greatest threats we have to this nation is our debt,” noting that the ratio of public debt to gross domestic product ― a widely used metric for measuring the federal government’s debt levels ― had not been this high since World War II…. It’s absolutely true that the debt-to-GDP ratio hasn’t been this high since World War II (or at any other time in U.S. history). But it was so high back then because the U.S. faced a once-in-a-lifetime crisis that required a massive, sudden, one-time burst of spending. That’s precisely what just happened because of COVID-19, and why deficits (which lead to debt) suddenly spiked. Click through for details. McCarthy is being extremely disingenuous (which is the polite way to say “attempting deliberate fraud.”)
Yesterday, I got confirmation to visit Virgil tomorrow. This is the second visit in a row I’ve had to follow up on my request, but it pays off not to get upset, and I think they are rotating assignments or something because the name in the “signature” was new to me. So I think I’ll just start adding “Thanks in advance for your confirmation” or the like to my emails. It’s easy to do, it’s not insulting, and it could save a whole lot of grief on both ends. I also heard from a friend in California, one town up from where I grew up (but we had to join the Marines and be stationed in North Carolina to meet) letting me know that the rains had been heavy, but that she is fine. That area is separated from the ocean by what they call “the foothills,” although they aren’t at the foot of any mountains, they are just there. They are tall enough that a couple of inches, or even a couple of feet in sea level rise is not going to affect the area, but of course rain is another story. I’ll have to start paying more attention to the weather, beyond my own weather and the big headline storms.
Cartoon – (So many of TomCat’s cartoons were clairvoyant. This one is from January 2015.)
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Wonkette – Oh Sh*t, Ohio Student Noticed Top Secret Anti-Racist Message Of ‘The Sneetches’
Quote – This is where we are: You can’t read The Sneetches because a kid might notice discrimination is wrong. And that’s exactly what red state governors and legislators have been accomplishing. She added that the school district is “really not about suppressing any viewpoints or dialogues,” which it did, actually. In addition, so everyone will have something to groan about, she also insisted “We do not ban any books,” which is true, because all she did was ban a teacher from reading one. Congratulations, rightwing hoax-panic over “critical race theory.” Click through for story. Children, like adults, differ, and not all of them have brains that fit the “tabula rasa” theory. Some are quite intelligent. So, while I of course would not call any kind of censorship healthy, no matter how hard they try, some facts are going to get through.
Robert Reich – What to do about America’s “labor shortage?” Easy. Pay people more.
Quote – The reason people aren’t working is that work doesn’t pay them enough, given declining wages and the increasing costs of childcare, eldercare, and transportation. Both the Fed’s solution (slow the economy so employers can find the workers they need without raising wages) and the Republican corporate solution (slash safety nets so people are so desperate they have to take any job available) are cruel. They would impose huge burdens on many of the most vulnerable people in our society. If we want more people to take jobs and we wish to live in a decent society, the answer is to pay people more. Click through for details. I don’t get it. Is it because Reich’s background is technically in the field of labor, not economics, that “serious economists” don’t take him seriously? He is right on this, he is virtually always right, and he has cold, hard facts to back him up.
Food For Thought (Our system can handle gifs, but not, for some reason, this one. But uyou can see it in moton here.)
Glenn Kirschner – Judge rules Trump’s “stand back and stand by” is admissible, relevant evidence in Proud Boys trial
The Lincoln Project – Last Week in the Republican Party – January 10, 2023
MSNBC – Nassau County GOP calls on Rep. Santos to resign: ‘He deceived the voters’ (When was the last time Republicans called for a Republican to resign?)
Thom Hartmann – DeSantis Ascends To Fascist Fuhrer
The Riccardis – My Resume (The George Santos Song) – CC added by the Riccardis, so it’s accurate. (Tune – “America” from “West Side Story”)
German Shepherd Bomb Detection Dog Misses Her Job After Retirement
Yesterday, I kind of fell down the gas stove rabbit hole. I grew up with a gas stove, which my mom loved because of the instant temperature changes it makes possible (otherwise, heat is heat – that’s really the big difference.) The same autumn during which President Kennedy was murdered, we sprung a minor leak somewhere. It was so minor neither of us could smell it. Mom worked full time (and always overtime the closer it got to year end) whereas I was a sophomore in college and had a car, and a schedule with a lot of gaps, so I was home more. And when I started feeling a lack of energy, I spent even more time at home, and lost even more energy. My aunt smelled it when she and my uncle came for Christmas, and we got it fixed. I never felt the same about gas stoves, and after moving out (well, a lot of moves, since I went into the service) I learned how to use a gas stove, and that there are ways of gaining the control over temperature changes that so many people think you lose, such as using two burners, one set on simmer while you are bring the dish up to high hear, then moving it to the low temp one and turning off the hot one. As in making rice, and doing stir-fry or wok coooking. Since the Biden White House recently issued an alert on the danger of fumes from gas stoves, gas stove lovers on all parts of the political continuum are freaking out, and I’m afraid I fell into the rabbit hole in the comments at a couple of my sources. Amazingly, so far, no one has savaged me. I actually received one uprate on a tip (a gadget to warm tortillas ina microvave) and one reply thanking me for the two-burner tip. Amazing. Of course, both sources are left-leaning, and it shouldn’t surprise me that Democratic gas stove lovers, even though Democrats can get snarky, would be more polite than Republican ones.
I’m not going to talk about President Joe’s documents at this point. I have read a couple of very different artivcles I’d recommend, here and here, if anyone wants to go deeper into it at this point.
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Wonkette – Proud Boys Lose Lawyer, Fight For All White Jury, Manhood In Jan 6 Suit
Quote – Well, to be more precise, it’s a Batson challenge, although not perhaps as the Supreme Court envisioned it in 1986 when it held that it violates the Constitution’s Equal Protection clause for prosecutors to use their peremptory strikes to exclude jurors simply because of their race and lowered the threshold for proving that a strike was racially motivated. In plain English, in a criminal case, each side can strike unlimited numbers of jurors “for cause,” and a limited number just because they feel like it, i.e. peremptorily. Before Batson, it was standard practice in some jurisdictions for prosecutors to strike all Black jurors when the defendant was Black. Click through for story. I believe the jury is set and oral arguments began yesterday, but I wanted to post a reminder of the “Batson challenge” and the bad old days. I also wanted to share Wonkette’s source which said the jury “is not bereft of white people.” That gave me a chuckle.
truthout – Privatization Scam Threatens to Replace Traditional Medicare Altogether by 2030
Quote – The incessantly repeated television ad for Medicare Advantage, which has often been narrated by 1960s quarterback Joe Namath, is full of disinformation — and it’s a profitable scam for health insurers. The disingenuously named privatized program has all kinds of disadvantages compared to the traditional Medicare program that dates back to 1965. Click through for details. I’ve never felt a supplemental program, other than Part D, was right for my unusual circumstances. But i’m 100% good with some kind of supplement to Medicare (mine just happens to be a former-employer-funded HSA). A lot of us here have Medicare, some probably have a supplement, and you should have access to the knowledge of exactly what you are paying for.
