Yesterday, I kept periodically checking on Hurricane Hilary. PP has at least one reader in southern Cal, and my BFF has family there. Just to make life more intresting, there was a 5.1 magnitude earthquake near Ojai (Ventura Coounty) – if you hadn’t heard, that’s probably because compared to the storms it was trivial. And then there’s southern Nevada and Arizona, which are now in the path. Hilary had been staying a cat 4 into the afternoon, but they were not ruling out Cat 5 status being reached, and the flooding was being considered the biggest danger. We could be continuing to see the ongoing effects for another day or two before it finishes. And then there’a another system in the Pacific and 4 more in the Atlantic.
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HuffPost – Trump Lawyer On Georgia Case Has Eyebrow-Raising Tie To Prosecutor Fani Willis
Quote – Findling gave $1,440 to Fani Willis’ successful Democratic primary bid for Fulton County DA in July 2020, the outlet wrote, citing data from the Georgia Government Transparency and Campaign Finance Commission. Meanwhile, he donated $8,400 for Biden’s White House bid…. He told Insider at the time that differing political views do not stand in the way of him offering a vigorous defense against “wrongful investigations.” Click through for details. I doubt that this means anything (except that he might be competent), but I’m surprised that Trump** isn’t all over it like stink on you-know-what.
Orlando Sentinel (via Yahoo! News) – ‘Parenting with Pride’ aims to take on conservative Moms for Liberty in Florida schools
Quote – “This is what Florida families really look like,” said Brandon Wolf, spokesperson for Equality Florida as he gestured to the group of people with varying races, gender identities, sexualities and immigration statuses who had come to support the new initiative. “For years, parents and families just like the ones behind me have been under assault. … Politicians have waged war on these families turning their classrooms into political battlefields and descending school districts into utter chaos. But today marks a turning of the tide. Today marks a rise in the resistance against that agenda.” Click hrough for article. Yahoo! News provides news articles straight from their sources, which is why I cited the Sentinel. However, I did not look at the comments, and I recommend (based on prior experience) that ypu don’t either if you value your blood pressure. Too many little-y yahoos.
Experts in autocracies have pointed out that it is, unfortunately, easy to slip into normalizing the tyrant, hence it is important to hang on to outrage. These incidents which seem to call for the efforts of the Greek Furies (Erinyes) to come and deal with them will, I hope, help with that. As a reminder, though no one really knows how many there were supposed to be, the three names we have are Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone. These roughly translate as “unceasing,” “grudging,” and “vengeful destruction.”
So today is – or was – depending on when you get here – the first hurricane to land on California in living memory – and when I say living memory, I mean the people who were alive in California at the time of the Spanish conquest. And probably much longer – but we don’t have records on that. As a native of California myself, I didn’t feel that I could ignore this. But it’s an issue much bigger than California – after all, New York didn’t get hurricanes either – until it did. Climate change is bringing tropical storms out of tropical areas nd into the temperate zone. I don’t think it’s wise to wait until the first hurricane hits Alaska to read up on, and discuss, the subject.
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Hurricane Hilary triggers Southern California’s first tropical storm warning ever, with heavy rain and flash flooding forecast
Hurricane Hilary was a powerful Category 4 storm as it headed for Baja California on Aug. 18, 2023. NOAA NESDIS
Hurricane Hilary headed for Mexico’s Baja peninsula on Saturday, Aug. 19, 2023, and was forecast to speed into Southern California at or near tropical storm strength on Sunday. For the first time ever, the National Hurricane Center issued a tropical storm warning for large parts of Southern California and warned of a “potentially historic amount of rainfall” and “dangerous to locally catastrophic flooding.”
Hurricane scientist Nick Grondin explains how the storm, with help from El Niño and a heat dome over much of the country, could bring flash flooding, wind damage and mudslides to the U.S. Southwest.
How rare are tropical storms in the Southwest?
California has only had one confirmed tropical storm landfall in the past. It was in September 1939 and called the Long Beach Tropical Storm. It caused about US$2 million dollars in damage in the Los Angeles area – that would be about $44 million today. A hurricane in 1858 came close but didn’t make landfall, though its winds did significant damage to San Diego.
What the Southwest does see fairly regularly are the remnants of tropical cyclones, storms that continue on after a tropical cyclone loses its surface circulation. These remnant storms are more common in the region than people might think.
Just last year, Hurricane Kay took a similar track to the one Hurricane Hilary is on and brought significant rainfall to Southern California and Arizona. Famously, Hurricane Nora in 1997 made landfall in Mexico’s Baja California and kept moving north, bringing tropical storm-force winds to California and widespread flooding that caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage, particularly to fruit trees and agriculture.
The National Hurricane Center’s three-day rainfall forecast issued Aug. 19, 2023, shows rainfall totals that are well above what some areas typically receive in a year. National Hurricane Center
A study led by atmospheric scientist Elizabeth Ritchie in 2011 found that, on average, about 3.1 remnant systems from tropical cyclones affected the U.S. Southwest each year from 1992 to 2005. That’s a short record, but it gives you an idea of the frequency.
Typically, the remnants of tropical cyclones don’t go beyond California, Nevada and Arizona, though it wouldn’t be unprecedented. In this case, forecasters expect the effects to extend far north. The National Hurricane Center on Aug. 18 projected at least a moderate risk of flooding across large parts of Southern California, southern Nevada and far-western Arizona, and a high risk of flooding for regions east of San Diego.
During El Niño, the tropical Pacific is warmer than normal, and both the eastern and central Pacific tend to be more active with storms, as we saw in 2015 and 1997. Generally, hurricanes need at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit (27 degrees Celsius) to maintain their intensity. Normally, the waters off Southern California are much cooler. But with the high initial intensity of Hurricane Hilary over warm water to the south, and the fact that the storm is moving fast, forecasters think it might be able to survive the cooler water.
The influence of the heat dome is interesting. Meteorology researcher Kimberly Wood published a fantastic thread on X, formerly known as Twitter, describing the large-scale pattern around similar storms that have affected the southwestern United States. A common thread with these storms is the presence of a ridge, or high-pressure system, in the central U.S. When you have a high-pressure system like the heat dome covering much of the country, air is pushed down and warms significantly. Air around this ridge is moving clockwise. Meanwhile, a low-pressure system is over the Pacific Ocean with winds rotating counterclockwise. The result is that these winds are likely to accelerate Hilary northward into California.
Despite the rarity of tropical cyclones reaching California, numerical weather prediction models since the storm’s formation have generally shown Hilary likely to accelerate along the west coast of Baja California and push into Southern California.
What are the risks?
The threat of tropical storm-force winds led the National Hurricane Center to its first-ever tropical storm watch for Southern California on Aug. 18. However, water is almost always the primary concern with tropical storms. In California, that can mean flash flooding from extreme rainfall enhanced by mountains.
When a tropical storm plows up on a mountain, that can lead to more lifting, more condensation aloft and more rainfall than might otherwise be expected. It happened with Hurricane Lane in Hawaii in 2018 and can also happen in other tropical cyclone-prone locations with significant orographic, or mountain, effects, such as the west coast of Mexico.
In dry areas, heavy downpours can also trigger flash flooding. Forecasts on Aug. 18 showed Death Valley likely to get about 4 inches of rain over a three-day period from the storm – that’s about twice its average for an entire year. Death Valley National Park warned of flash flooding Aug. 19-22 and closed its visitor centers and campgrounds.
As Hurricane Hilary heads toward landfall in Baja California, forecasters are expecting dangerous flooding, storm surge and wind damage in Mexico before the storm reaches Southern California.
Keep in mind this is still an evolving situation. Forecasts can change, and all it takes is one band of rain setting up in the right spot to cause significant flooding. Those in the path of Hilary should refer to their local weather offices for additional information. This would include local National Weather Service offices in the United States and Servicio Meteorológico Nacional in Mexico.
This article was updated Aug. 19, 2023, with the National Hurricane Center upgrading the tropical storm watch to a tropical storm warning.
============================================================== Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone, no matter how far one lives from a coast, it’s time to start thinking about what to do in the event of a hurricane. If you’re separated from the coast by a tall mountain range, you may have a little extra time – but I doubt whether California’s coastal range (which we always belittlingly referred to as “the foothills”) are going to stop a storm. And the Mississippi River would appear to give any hurricane a straight route northwards. Anyone outside the US, I’m not knowledgeable enough to address.
Beau of the Fifth Column, who lives in Florida, has made many a video advising people there, and through the south and even the northeast, how to prepare. They include about everything you would think of and some things that you wouldn’t. He just made his first one for California. It includes tips on how to read the weather maps – excellent advice for a newbie – but I didn’t hear him mention having a plan for your pets in case evacuation becomes necessary. Well, maybe from fires, Californians will be aware of that.
Our planet is getting hotter – there is no denying this. Disasters such as wildfires and storms are getting worse. The tragic fires on Maui are shaping up to be the worst disaster in Hawaii’s history as a U.S. state. Corals are dying, ocean water is getting warmer, arctic ice is melting. The gulf stream could shut down in a few decades, possibly a few years, though only time will tell.
We all know about how climate change is affecting weather patterns, leading to more powerful storms, larger and more frequent wildfires, rising sea levels, increases in droughts and famines. Viruses that have long lain dormant in arctic ice and permafrost will escape, possibly triggering new epidemics. You thought the COVID pandemic was fun? Wait till something even nastier sweeps through the population.
Increasing temperatures affect our reproduction – and doubtless that of other species as well. Hight heat makes pregnancy riskier, increasing the probability of premature birth. Also, heat affects the effectiveness of birth control, including condoms and the morning-after pill. This makes the battle for reproductive rights all the more important.
As usual, the ones suffering most from the heat and the other effects of climate change are the poor, the old, the young, and residents of developing countries. The wealthy can go pretty much wherever they want, while the economically disadvantaged are pretty much stuck where they are. And if they must leave their present homes, they have limited resources to travel; many have nothing but their own feet for mobility. Owners of boats that transport refugees often charge exorbitant prices for passage, and provide very little necessities, if any at all.
Already hordes of refugees are fleeing stricken areas, and sadly some countries are trying to turn them aside. Wars will erupt as nations battle over dwindling resources. Since more heat means hotter tempers, anger will flare into violence again and again and again. Not only that, people will fight to the death when survival is at stake.
Increasing heat hurts us all both physically and mentally. It is in everybody’s interest to do what we all can to curtail the effects of climate change. Even if we have passed one or more tipping points, we may be able to avoid the worst ones. This will happen only when cooler heads prevail – and cool heads are hard to come by these days.
Yesterday, the radio opera was “Manon” by Jules Massenet (Puccini also wrote “Manon Lescaut” based on the same book, and so did a number of other composers whose works are not in the repertory.) It’s based on a 1731 novel written by a French priest, which IMO is Exhibit A for why priests should not do marriage counseling. Manon is described as “capturing the heart of everyone she encounters,” but in no version that I have seen is she even likeable. She’s a gold digger who can’t even be consistent in digging gold, and she doesn’t just manage to get into trouble herself, but destroys the one man who truly loves her (which doesn’t say much for him either.) But of course the music is wonderful (in both this one and the Puccini) so I listened to it all the way to the end when she and her lover are “lost in the deserts of Louisiana,” even though I can’t help snickering at the thought of any part of Louisiana being desert (you can blame the book for that.) This performance is from Barcelona, and the production looks like someone’s fantasy of modern Las Vegas (well, there is a fair amount of gambling in the opera.)
Also, a PSA – about 11:00 a.m. today Hurricane Hillary is expected to reach the Mexico-California border and by 11:00 p.m. to have passed Los Angeles. If you know anyone in the vicinity (Colleen already has it), here’s a link on preparations. And the LA Times has a map following and estimating its path. California has not experiened a hurricane in living memory – of those alive at the time of the Spanish Conquest. And who knows for how long before that. I know I’m late with this, but if you know anyone it would help, here it is.
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The Warning – The peaceful transfer of power
Quote – American greatness has been fueled and sustained by qualities of character that are timeless and sorely needed during these days of national crisis. There should be no mistake about this being a moment of crisis or blindness about its cause, or who specifically is responsible…. (discussion of three Presidents’ characters) …Truman, a decorated combat veteran of the First World War, recalled his emotions this way, telling reporters the following day: “I felt like the moon, the stars and all the planets had fallen on me.” Why did he feel that way? What burden was thrust upon him? It was the burden imposed by the most solemn oath that exists in American public life. Thirty-five words long, it is specifically proscribed in the US Constitution, and was taken for the first time on March 4, 1789, by George Washington. When Truman raised his hand, he was the 32nd person in American history to swear it. When he did, he became president of the United States of America. His styling was simple and unadorned. “Mr. President” is what we call the person who swears that oath. Here it is: “I do solemnly swear to faithfully execute the office of President of the United States and to the best of my ability preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.” Click through for article. As always on substack, what looks like a paywall isn’t – the message may have an option to “let me try it first” or to “keep reading”or even “no thanks.” There may even be more than one. Whatever it is, click it and you’ll be in. This article is a little pep talk for us who already realize the gravity of our situation.
Upworthy – Daughter comes out as trans, gives dad courage to come out as well: ‘We’re stronger as a family’
Quote – Eric remembers his daughter being bullied as a kid. One of the first incidents of bullying was when Corey was pushed down a hill covered in frozen ice. She suffered injuries to her face and was forced to move to another school, as a result, said Eric, reported ABC News. Eric said the new school’s staff and students were more accepting of his daughter and treat her just like any of the other girls. “She’s allowed to use the girls’ bathroom and locker room, and play on the girls’ sports team and cheer team if she wants to,” said Eric. “We are just like any other kids. We only want people to accept and love us for who we are,” said Corey. Click through for details. It’s a pretty good bet that anything you see on Upworthy is – worthy to be uprated and upraised. Crooks and Liars recently re-posted the video mentioned (the one with the captions.)
Yesterday, the Daily Beast (which devotes a lot of time and space to entertainment – movies, TV, books, music, pop culture – along with political stuff, had a story on a new episode on Apple TV (which I didn’t see, though it streamed last night) whose main character is Marcie – the Peanuts girl who calls Peppermint Patty “Sir.” And they included the trailer, which I did watch. It’s really rather sweet. Being an introvert myself, I was touched. Also yesterday, I received notification from John Pavlovitz that his “If God Is Love, Don’t Be A Jerk” series is going to be repeated (if you can call it a repeat when so much of it is teacher-student interaction and the students will be enew – at least some of them. It’s not free, but it does come with some perks and bennies. More information here.
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The 19th – Why DeSantis’ war on ‘woke’ isn’t winning in the GOP primary
Quote – For many LGBTQ+ people, particularly trans people, DeSantis’ war on woke has seemed like a direct assault on their ability to participate in society. For some people of color, particularly Black people, the Florida governor has appropriated a word from their culture and weaponized it against them. For those on the right, like DeSantis, who have embraced “woke” as an enemy, it can be a more palatable catch-all for a variety of race- and gender-based grievances designed to appeal to White voters worried about holding onto their power, according to experts. But it can also turn off Republican voters — for some, it’s seen as openly racist or anti-LGBTQ+, and for others, it’s too vague. And many of the GOP primary voters who relish attacks like those from DeSantis and others in the primary field already have a candidate: former President Donald Trump. Click through for article. I suppose it would be possible to out-Trump** Trump**, which is what DeSaster is trying to do. But it cannot be done by a pudding-fingered white-booted wimp like him. Not that that solves the problem of bigots who hate the whole idea of “woke.”
The Nib – Shady Behavior
Quote – For being so prominent, palms dont pull their weight when it comes to cooling the city and preventing flooding. They provide poor canopy for catchng rainwater, offering little to offset what is known as the heat island effect: an increase in temperature in urbanized areas whose manmade structures absorb and re-emit the sun’s heat. Click through for graphic article. I don’t know how long we will have The Nib – this could be the last I feature from it – but I will keep checking. I had no idea palms are technically not even trees. Los Angeles and its environs need to become aware of this – and maybe San Diego as well.
