Politics Plus

Experts in autocracies have pointed out that it is, unfortunately, easy to slip into normalizing the tyrant, hence it is important to hang on to outrage. These incidents which seem to call for the efforts of the Greek Furies (Erinyes) to come and deal with them will, I hope, help with that. As a reminder, though no one really knows how many there were supposed to be, the three names we have are Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone. These roughly translate as “unceasing,” “grudging,” and “vengeful destruction.”

On this last Saturday before the election, I don’t want to talk about the election. I assume that everyone who reads here has already done everything they need to do to prepare for it, including in some cases already voted. Instead, I want to talk about the 2020 Census. Win or lose, that will be a huge post-election project for us, and possibly the biggest project.

We have already been looking at the fact that the infamous Wilbur Ross, instigated and/or supported by Trump, wants to add a citizenship question to the Census, and there is a lawsuit to stop that. I’ve signed more than one petition to stop the question, and I expect others have too.

A stay in the trial, which starts Monday, was requested by the Trump administration of the Supreme Court, and yesterday the news came out that no such stay will be granted. Since Kavanazi was not present when the arguments were heard, I presume that he was not permitted to vote (although with this regime you never know.) Three justices, Alito, Thomas, and Gorsuch, stated that they “would have granted the requested stay,” but no justice is required to go on record how they “would have” voted, and no other did. Partly because they used that verbiage rather than using the word “dissent,” I am guessing that the vote was 4-4. A tie vote results in no change, which means no stay, so the case starts Monday as originally scheduled. Good. Let us hope that the Courts rule wisely, and don’t get overruled.

Meanwhile, the people who actually do the work at the Census Bureau (which still includes many career civil servants who actually know what they are doing) are working on drumming up support and brainstorming on how best to deal with some perennial and some topical issues in the count:

On a scorching day in early August, about 30 people gathered at the Univision Network’s flagship TV station in Los Angeles from across California to talk about the challenges of making sure everyone is counted in the 2020 Census….

At the L.A. event, there were representatives from major advocacy groups, from the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials to the League of United Latin American Citizens, along with representatives from Univision affiliates in California….

[P]articipants divided into teams to focus on four challenges and propose solutions for:

Amplifying outreach and engagement in rural communities.
Educating immigrant families with limited English language proficiency.
Creating effective digital communications campaigns.
Addressing the undercount of children 0 to 5 years old.

Nice to know they are on this, and trying. Also nice to know they are at least trying to keep raw data safe and secure, so that it is released in ways which are statistically significant only. And also providing some tools to protect our own information.

While our dedicated cybersecurity experts work continuously to protect the data we collect and store in our system, we also know that you have a role to play to protect your information on your personal devices and internet connections.

To ensure your data remains protected at all times, we encourage you to visit:

Our fraudulent activity and scams page that’s dedicated to providing you tips to avoid becoming a victim of cyberattacks.
The Department of Homeland Security’s STOP. THINK. CONNECT. campaign that’s dedicated to providing you cybersecurity best practices.

We know the accuracy of our statistics depends on the accuracy of the data we collect. If you suspect “phishing” or other scams, contact the Census Bureau’s regional office for your state or the Census Bureau’s National Processing Center immediately for verification and further instructions.

Besides career civil servants, the Census also hires temporary employees for each census. Some work full time in offices in population hubs – even very small ones – as my mother did in 1980. Others work part time flexible hours to follow up on information missing from the forms, as I did in 1980. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Prior to the 2010 census, the Bureau accepted 3.9 million applications, and actually hired hundreds of thousands of people. I know a lot of Politics Plus readers are older, and some of us are at least partially disabled. But for anyone who is physically up to it, frankly, I can’t think of anyone I would trust more to work honestly and accurately than Politics Plus readers. They are not yet taking applications, but they are setting up an email list to notify people when and how to apply.

The fact is, every American has a part to play in every census. The phrase “Stand up and be counted” was never so appropriate. But you don’t have to stop at being counted – you can actually get involved in the counting.

QQ Here are five ways you can get involved:

1. Sign up for updates on new resources and opportunities to partner with the U.S. Census Bureau.
2. Follow @uscensusbureau and spread the word about how the census is easy, safe and important by sharing our news, data products, fact sheets and infographics.
3. Host a workshop to develop solutions to 2020 Census challenges in your community and generate commitments to tackle them.

4. Form or participate in a State Complete Count Commission or a Complete Count Committee to encourage participation in your community.
5. Participate in The Opportunity Project to use open data — data that can be freely used and distributed by anyone — to create digital tools that address our greatest challenges through innovative, collaborative solutions. QQ

I already mentioned that the Census will be a big priority, win or lose. I am hoping for big wins, but I am expecting to win some and lose some. And the fewer we win, the more the Census will be almost the only thing we can do to make a real difference. The Furies can’t do everything, you know. But I do hope Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone will help motivate some of us – after we catch our breath from the election – to get involved.

The Furies and I will be back.

Cross posted to Care2 HERE.

Experts in autocracies have pointed out that it is, unfortunately, easy to slip into normalizing the tyrant, hence it is important to hang on to outrage. These incidents which seem to call for the efforts of the Greek Furies (Erinyes) to come and deal with them will, I hope, help with that. As a reminder, though no one really knows how many there were supposed to be, the three names we have are Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone. These roughly translate as “unceasing,” “grudging,” and “vengeful destruction.”

With 17 days left until the most important election of my lifetime so far, I can’t seem to get my mind off of election hacking. I see three broad possibilities –

1) Will some, most, or all of the many possible perpetrators hack into our election systems and change votes? or,

2) Will some, most, or all of the many possible perpetrators hack into our utility systems, especially in large cities, and cause the breakdown of election equipment in order to disappear votes? or,

3) Most diabolical of all, will some, most, or all of the many possible perpetrators do nothing – other than continuing to spread chaos through social media – allow the elections to proceed without outside interference, and then CLAIM to have interfered, in order to delegitimize legitimate election results?

The problem with all of these speculations is that our Federal government will do absolutely nothing to prevent any of the above, and most State governments, maybe all of them, will do nothing either. The result of that is that when I fret about these possibilities, the person I am injuring most is myself.

So I need to give my brain a moratorium, leave the hacking issues to Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone, and discuss something completely different (no, not stereo.)

Confederate monuments.

Most people who read here are aware that most “Confederate monuments” have virtually nothing to do with memorializing the CSA or the war, and almost everything to do with keeping people of color terrified so they wouldn’t get “uppity.” If nothing else, the fact that by far the greatest number of then were erected after 1900 should give that away. There is, or was until recently, one at the University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill which went up in 1913.

It doesn’t memorialize anyone in particular – sort of an “unknown Confederate soldier” – in theory it is dedicated to “the sons of the University who died for their beloved Southland 1861-1865.” It was nicknamed “Silent Sam.” On June 2, 1913, it was dedicated in a ceremony including a speech by Julian Carr, a Confederate veteran. The speech included references to Carr’s having “horse-whipped a negro wench until her skirts hung in shreds,” as well as expressions of gratitude to the KKK for its racist violence.

This year a number of anti-racist activists took it down. One, Maya Little, had protested it by dousing it in a mixture of red paint and her own blood. Maya and more than two dozen other activists have been arrested for protesting the statue and neo-Confederates, and Maya’s case will return to court Monday (the 22nd.)

The arrests did not sit well with a great, great, great granddaughter of Julian Carr named Meg Yarnell. She has written an Open Letter to the Administration which, since it is open, I quote in full:

I write to you, as the great, great, great granddaughter of Julian S. Carr, to advocate that UNC drop the Honor Court and criminal charges against Maya Little and the antiracist activists arrested protesting the Confederate monument known as Silent Sam. Considering the legacy of my great, great, great grandfather, who was instrumental in erecting Silent Sam and infamously dedicated the statue by celebrating the purity of the Anglo-Saxon race and the time that he “whipped a negro wench until her skirts hung in shreds,” I am grateful for what Maya did to contextualize this statue and advance the cause for its removal.

My family can trace our lineage in the United States back to early America and the shameful time when our ancestors owned slaves, a time when it was perfectly acceptable, even enviable, for one man and his kin to become rich off the unpaid labor, industry, and suffering of hundreds of men, women and children.

My great, great, great grandfather Julian Carr fought in the Civil War on the side of the Confederacy, which explicitly dedicated itself to keeping this system of slavery alive. Yes, he loved his family and parts of the community in which he lived, but we must recognize that Julian was a white supremacist whose vitriolic speech and actions resulted in the pain and suffering of many.

As a white person, and descendant of Julian Carr, I cannot remain silent. Our silence as white people is complicity with white supremacy and has created a very painful world. It is a horrifying necessity to confront the reality that my ancestors participated in such shameful things, and I want to express my sorrow and deepest apologies for the profound suffering, trauma and inequality caused by the actions of my ancestors, including Julian Carr. However, apologies are not enough. Action is needed to help right these historic wrongs.

As Frederick Douglass said during an 1881 speech, “Slavery is indeed gone, but its long, black shadow yet falls broad and large over the face of the whole country.” This continues to be true today.

The founding of our country is circumscribed by multiple traumas of oppression and violence—slavery of Black people and genocide of First Nations peoples among them. As a nation we have failed to truly understand, acknowledge, mourn, and make reparations for our country’s violent origins.

This untreated wound is why it is so difficult to talk about race and culture in America. It is one of the reasons we do not make meaningful headway on so many of society’s problems such as poverty, institutional racism, police brutality, the prison industrial complex, and health inequality. It is why we continue to hold onto racist and damaging memorials such as the one torn down at UNC.

By our “founding fathers’” design, white people have benefitted and continue to benefit from slavery and its contemporary semblances. As white people, we need to confront our past and take responsibility for creating real socioeconomic and racial equity and justice today. For one, we need to use the privilege history has afforded us to speak the truth and remove Confederate monuments like Silent Sam, which only serve to celebrate our nation’s ugly past and present. We should applaud the actions of Maya Little and other antiracist activists, many of whom are people of color, for putting themselves at risk to improve our communities.

Maya’s action in April 2018 was a courageous act of civil disobedience and an attempt to ameliorate the harm that white people have done. She generated thoughtful discussion around issues of white supremacy at her own expense. Those that participated in the actions against the statue in August and early September also sought to turn the tides on campus to discussions of racial inclusion and social justice. I stand proudly with them.

UNC is in a unique position at this moment in time. Silent Sam has been removed. In its absence, the university can reimagine the commemorative landscape to represent the community’s highest values. UNC can create a campus that is welcoming for all and in the spirit of its mission to serve as a center for research, scholarship, and creativity for a diverse community of undergraduate, graduate, and professional students to become the next generation of leaders.

Maya Little, as well as those involved in removing and protesting the statue, are some of these leaders. It would be another wound to silence or make invisible (or worse, violently eradicate) their actions, which have put UNC’s community and our nation in a greater place to collectively heal.

Sincerely,

Meg Yarnell

I know of no one who could have said it any better; certainly not I. Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone, if you can spare a moment from dealing with hackers, please keep an eye of protection on Ms. Yarnell. I hope she won’t need it, but I fear she will.

The Furies and I will be back.

Cross posted to Care2 HERE.

Experts in autocracies have pointed out that it is, unfortunately, easy to slip into normalizing the tyrant, hence it is important to hang on to outrage. These incidents which seem to call for the efforts of the Greek Furies (Erinyes) to come and deal with them will, I hope, help with that. As a reminder, though no one really knows how many there were supposed to be, the three names we have are Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone. These roughly translate as “unceasing,” “grudging,” and “vengeful destruction.”

Everyone who knows me knows that I am in extreme opposition to the privatization of government functions. This, of course, raises the question of just what is a proper function of government, and how should a proper function of government properly be managed and funded. Which is a huge question.

There is one 501(c)(3) or to be more accurate one project of a 501(c)(3) which is pretty well exclusively dedicated to studying the effects of privatization. That group is In The Public Interest (ITPI).

In the Public Interest is a comprehensive research and policy center committed to promoting the values, vision, and agenda for the common good and democratic control of public goods and services. 

They do a great deal of research, and from time to time put our reports which are truly comprehensive. I’ve downloaded a few, but due to time constraints, I don’t believe I’ve ever made it completely through any of them. (The most recent is on Charter Schools and what they do to public schools – it’s from May this year, and it’s 38 pages.) They also keep abreast of research and trends that others are talking about, and if they find the data valid, they’ll write something up in medium.

Recently I got an email with a link to a short article from the Communications Director, addressing one privatizing program which I would have to call a miserable failure, and one – well, two, with similar purposes and functions – government programs which have become almost too successful.

The debacle is the debt collection program contracted out by the IRS. If you’ve never owed any back taxes, the fact that some people do, for various reasons, may not exactly be in the front of your mind.

The current program is the third attempt to privatize collection of back taxes, and it’s no better than the first two, which were quickly shut down due to “poor management and negative returns.” The Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration is, needless to say, not happy with the current effort.

The four private companies, who are not named in the ITPI article nor in the linked article, were given 502,000 accounts to collect. Those accounts collectively owed a total of about $4.1 billion. The private firms have managed to collect just about 1%. The debt collection industry average is 10%.

The private program’s complaint process requires each company to self-report any grievance against them. Unsurprisingly, this is not working. Further, the IRS advertises that they will never use the telephone to contact anyone to demand payment. But the private companies are doing just that. They are also requesting Social Security numbers for verification. Would you give your Social Security number over the phone? (I would hope not!) Further, the callers work on commission, which incentivizes making as many calls as possible.

TIGTA says the program could be improved with some tweaks. One would be giving the private firms newer accounts. But IRS points out that the law only allows for contractors to engage in “inactive” accounts. Another would be for the IRS to establish a panel to deal with complaints. My guess is that such a panel would cost far more to establish and manage than the measly net amount the contractors claim to have provided the IRS in net profit – $1.3 million. You may notice that is considerably less than 1% of $4.1 billion, even an American billion. Yes, well, they get to keep some of what they collect, don’tcha know. And then there’s overhead, and fees, and this and that.

The law which established this program was passed and signed in 2015, which I take to mean there was a veto-proof majority voting for it. Being established by law, it can only be dis-established by new legislation.

The program was established despite pushback from some lawmakers, good government groups and employee advocates, who warned that history has shown the privatization of tax debt collection is inefficient and targets the nation’s most vulnerable taxpayers. Several Democrats in the Senate and House, among them Sen. Ben Cardin, D-Md., and Rep. John Lewis, D-Ga., have introduced legislation that would end the private collection program.

The other example of privatization vs. government operation has to do with Fannie Mae (more formally known as the Federal National Mortgage Administration) and Freddie Mac (ditto the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation).They are historically government sponsored but privately operated. Historically. That all changed in 2008, with the housing crisis

In 2008 they went into crisis with everyone else, and were bailed out, in the form of conservatorship.

The bailout gave Fannie and Freddie the financial liquidity they needed to survive, but also required them to pay the Treasury a 10 percent dividend as part of the deal.

In 2012, when the two were profitable again, Treasury and FHFA revised the agreement, with the former getting all profits on a quarterly basis. In 2017, Treasury and FHFA agreed to allow Fannie and Freddie to maintain $3 billion in capital, before having to pay the remainder of their profits to Treasury.

As a result of the bailout, Fannie and Freddie continued to back loans and now, along with FHA, they back the vast majority of new home loans. Investors continued to buy the mortgage backed securities from Fannie and Freddie, because they were backed by the government, and the housing market began to recover.

You might say this whole process put all U.S. taxpayers in the positions of vulture investors. The Government “bought low” when no one else would come in, and taxpayers are reaping the rewards, largely in reductions of the amount the government needs to borrow each year. The people who have been the most shortchanged have been private shareholders, who are now holding essentially worthless paper. Surprisingly to me, the retired CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association is fine with this. He says shareholders and speculators could only make things worse – that the conservatorship is the only thing holding interest rates low (and thus holding the housing market together.)

I have to find it amusing that the Federal Government wants to get our of the mortgage business and can’t, because it’s doing too good a job – and making money. Amusing in a kind of sardonic way. But I probably would have to agree that being in the mortgage loan business is probably not actually a proper government function – not in the sense that infrastructure, say, or public health, or even collecting taxes are. It is a heck of a good argument against privatization, though.

Well, dear ladies, this is not a situation where you can go out and just punish someone. You might work on supporting John Lewis and Ben Cardin on the IRS thing, and, if (pray God) we get our Democratic majorities, there’s a suggestion that Aunt Maxine Waters could be a housing hero next year.

The Furies and I will be back.

Cross posted to Care2 HERE.

Experts in autocracies have pointed out that it is, unfortunately, easy to slip into normalizing the tyrant, hence it is important to hang on to outrage. These incidents which seem to call for the efforts of the Greek Furies (Erinyes) to come and deal with them will, I hope, help with that. As a reminder, though no one really knows how many there were supposed to be, the three names we have are Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone. These roughly translate as “unceasing,” “grudging,” and “vengeful destruction.”

In view of the fact that two of the charges to which Paul Manafort pleaded guilty yesterday are charges of “conspiracy,” I thought it might be appropriate to share some thoughts on what conspiracy is and why it’s not always crazy to suspect its existence. After all, people do conspire, and have done throughout all of recorded history, and probably unrecorded history as well.

It’s reasonable to suppose many of the views that are now dismissed or mocked as conspiracy theories will one day be recognised as having been true all along. Indeed, the net effect of terms such as “conspiracy theory” and “conspiracism” is to silence people who are the victims of conspiracy, or who (rightly or wrongly) suspect conspiracies may be occurring. These terms serve to herd respectable opinion in ways that suit the interests of the powerful.

The term “conspiracy theory” was popularized by Sir Karl Popper during the 1950’s. Whether or not it was his intention, the popularization of the phrase gave the concept a bad name.

Sir Karl Popper

To characterise a belief as a conspiracy theory is to imply it’s false. More than that, it implies people who accept that belief, or want to investigate whether it’s true, are irrational…. [emphasis mine]

It’s a function similar to that served by the term “heresy” in medieval Europe. In both cases these are terms of propaganda, used to stigmatise and marginalise people who have beliefs that conflict with officially sanctioned or orthodox beliefs of the time and place in question.

If, as I believe, the treatment of those labelled as “conspiracy theorists” in our culture is analogous to the treatment of those labelled as “heretics” in medieval Europe, then the role of psychologists and social scientists in this treatment is analogous to that of the Inquisition.

Those are harsh words. But then, Inquisition-like behavior is mighty harsh behavior. David Coady, the author (he’s a Senior Lecturer at the University of Tasmania, hence all the “-ise” spellings) suggests we stop using the terms. Personally, I fear it’s too late for ceasing to use the terms to make much difference. The concept that suggesting we don’t know everything about the facts behind an occurrence has become so ingrained that I suspect changing the vocabulary will merely tarnish the new vocabulary.

Instead, I would recommend establishing specific guidelines as to how to determine what kind of conspiracy theory is conceivably rational and should be investigated, and what kind of conspiracy theory is irrational and can be dismissed. Since it’s not really possible to teach “common sense,” some kind of objective guidelines are needed.

Stefano di Giovani, The Burning of a Heretic, circa 1423-1426

I just characterized a conspiracy theory as “suggesting we don’t know everything about the facts behind an occurrence,” and while that’s a vast oversimplification, it can give us a starting point. For a conspiracy theory to be worth investigation, it must concern an occurrence. It must be about something which actually happened. On this basis, it’s unnecessary to examine Alex Jones’s theory that Hillary Clinton has established a pedophile sex tourist facility on Mars. There is no evidence such a facility exists. There is plenty of evidence that human life on Mars is not possible without technical equipment so large that it couldn’t be missed, and there is no evidence such equipment exists on Mars. Therefore there is no occurrence.

Even if there is an occurrence, there is a point beyond we can reasonably conclude that no conspiracy existed and dismiss further speculation. There was an occurrence at Benghazi in which people in fact died. Knowing no more than that, it was worth investigating suggestions of a conspiracy. It isn’t any more. The occurrence has been thoroughly investigated by investigators who had a huge emotional investment in finding a conspiracy. If there were evidence of a conspiracy, it is impossible that these investigators could have missed it. But none was found. Therefore, no conspiracy. So my second criterion would be to look for the motives of any investigators who may be going to investigate, or have already investigated, such theory.

{I might point out that Traitor Tot, or someone in his crime family, is aware of this one, and he has pulled it out himself in describing the Mueller investigation as “fourteen angry Democrats.” However, Mueller is a lifelong Republican, as are Comey, and Brennan, and Strzok, and the majority of FBI agents.}

These two criteria are a start, but they also only get us so far. I’ve talked about situations where there is no evidence to support a theory. But what if there is evidence? What if some of it is video evidence? It becomes crucial to be able to evaluate evidence, and particularly video evidence.

Fortunately, since a couple of weeks ago, we have some help with this. Siwei Lyu, an Associate

Screenshot from deepfake demonstration video

Professor at the University of Albany, SUNY, has given us some excellent information about how to detect a “deepfake” video – one which has been so meticulously put together with the latest computer technologies as to “deceive even the elect.” Professor Lyu warns his main guideline is not always going to work, because deceit keeps getting better and better, but he’s pretty sure it will work at least through the 2018 election.

If you go to the link, you will find technical information worded in such a way as to make it clear to non-technical people. But the bottom line is that people in deepfake videos do not blink normally, because the fakers don’t have enough closed-eye images to duplicate the normal human blink pattern. So if you ever see a video of someone saying something kind of unexpected, watch it again (sound off if it’s barfworthy), and look for the blinks.

As Lyu says, this isn’t going to work forever. But he and his team are working to keep up, so stay tuned.

Alecto, Magaera, Tisiphone, turn you attention to us this week (and keep us in your sights at least through November 6) and give us a pinch to wake us if if we fall for something. But also, help us remember that some conspiracies are real.

The Furies and I will be back.

Cross posted to Care2 HERE.