Politics Plus

The world is dealing with an unprecedented health crisis caused by a new virus. With new insights in the way COVID19 spreads, in the way the virus behaves and in the way to deal with the pandemic every day, it is now more important than ever to safeguard the information we share is accurate and fact-based. We have to inoculate ourselves against the fake news and misinformation that infect our newsfeeds and timelines at this crucial moment by fact-checking.

For the duration of the pandemic, I will try to give you an overview of the main issues in CoronaCheck, an Australian email newsletter with the latest from around the world concerning the coronavirus, but now appear only once a week.*

Melbourne, Australia, has seen a surge in new cases in the past couple of weeks which have led to lockdowns of public-housing flats, a tightening of restrictions in the rest of the city and for the first time in Australia the advice to people to wear face masks when in public. Time for Australian fact-checkers to have a good look at the use of masks to control the spread of the virus.

DO MASKS WORK?

“Studies have recently shown that, even when factoring in imperfections and human error, wearing face masks can reduce transmission of coronavirus by around 60 per cent,” reads a press release outlining the new and unprecedented advice.

Independent Senator for Tasmania Jacqui Lambie cited a different figure when speaking on the Today Show. “Should we be wearing face masks? They’re supposed to be 70 per cent reliable,” she said.

And speaking on 3AW, Tony Blakely, an epidemiologist and public health medicine specialist at the University of Melbourne, said masks reduced the risk of coronavirus transmission by “about 80 per cent”.

So what’s the correct figure? Well, all three close enough.

A systematic review, commissioned by the World Health Organisation and published in The Lancet last month, looked at a large number of observational studies to study the extent to which physical distancing, face masks and eye protection prevent the spread of COVID-19. The review found masks reduced the risk of spread by 67 per cent, while a close-fitting protective device such as an N95 respiratory mask reduced it by more than 95 per cent.

“The N95 respirators are much better but the surgical masks and even a 12-layered cloth mask does give you good protection as well,” said Raina MacIntyre MacIntrye, infectious diseases expert and head of the biosecurity research program at the Kirby Institute when she spoke to the ABC’s Health Report. She added before adding that masks protected with equal effect people in the community as well as in a healthcare setting.

However, speaking to Fact-check, Professor Blakely said there was a possibility his suggested figure of “about 80 per cent” protection was an overestimate, given the nature of the Lancet’s review. It looked at observational studies rather than randomised trials which would take into account the potential for correlated confounders, such as the fact that people who wore health masks were possibly more health-conscious than those who don’t.

Yet, Professor Blakely noted that an 85 per cent reduction is too large an effect to be purely due to correlated confounders.” According to him, mask-wearing was likely to reduce the risk of coronavirus spread by between 50 per cent and 80 per cent, which he said would have enough of an effect to “make a sizeable difference”.

Some experts, however, have questioned the Lancet review, cautioning against treating masks as a “magic ingredient”.

Paul Glasziou, the director of the Institute for Evidenced-Based Care at Bond University, told The Age he thinks the Lancet study is seriously flawed, again because “It’s all based on observational evidence. And they did not adjust for the confounding.“

Professor Glasziou also warned that masks could create a false sense of security, and were not the “magic ingredient” that was going to stop the pandemic, a notion echoed by Professor MacIntyre. “The bottom line is no intervention gives you 100 per cent protection. You have to use them in combination to reduce the risk and, until the time that we can vaccinate people, you really have to use these interventions in combination.”

MASKS FACT & FICTION

There’s a lot of disinformation about masks about that needs to be debunked

To start with, those small strips of metal in some face masks that can be moulded to the shape of the wearer’s nose are not 5G antennas, as reported by Reuters. Too bad, masks won’t stream your Netflix any faster.

Reuters also debunked a claim circulating on social media that two-tone surgical masks should be worn coloured side facing out if you are sick and white side facing out if you are healthy. That’s incorrect. The coloured side, usually blue, should always face out.

If people believe that bunk, then there are a lot of sick people out there who shouldn’t be out there at all but isolating themselves.

Meanwhile, Lead Stories looked into a video purporting to show a test that found wearing a mask causes oxygen levels to drop into a so-called “danger zone”.

As the fact-checkers point out, when the sensor used in the test is put under people’s faces while breathing out, it will naturally detect lower oxygen levels. That’s because the air we breathe in is about 21 per cent oxygen, while the air we breathe out is 16 per cent oxygen. Further, the manufacturer of the gadget seen in the video told Lead Stories that the test was flawed and that the sensor had been used incorrectly.

Finally, claims that New York hospitals were reporting thousands of lung infections caused by the use of face masks are false, according to PolitiFact. “New York hospitals didn’t report this, PolitiFact said. “There’s no evidence wearing a face mask properly causes fungal lung infections.”

FROM WASHINGTON, D.C.

Coronavirus cases continue to surge in the US as the country opens back up to get life, and especially the economy, back to some sort of normal. Schools, however, have remained shut and, with the start of the new school year drawing closer, the debate over whether they should open as planned has become heated.

President Donald Trump is on the side of reopening and is threatening to cut federal funding to schools in states where governors choose to keep them closed.

But fact-checkers at CNN found that Mr Trump is unable to cut unilaterally federal funding to schools, though he could restrict recent pandemic relief funding and refuse to sign future legislation for grants and bailouts.

Meanwhile, despite claims to the contrary, Mr Trump’s Education Secretary, Betsy DeVos, never said that “only 0.02 per cent of children” were likely to die if schools were reopened, according to USA Today, Snopes and Lead Stories. “Our analysis of DeVos’ public appearances found no evidence to show she made the comment,” fact-checkers at Snopes noted.

Also, the Associated Press’s fact-check team called out the Trump administration for repeatedly assuring the public that schools are safe and that children do not spread the virus, despite there being no certainty behind either statement.

In one example, White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany claimed the director of the US Centers for Disease Control had said “children are not spreading” COVID-19. AP clarified that what the director had really said was that there was no evidence that children were “driving” infections, and that experts had not yet ruled out the possibility that children could spread the virus to adults.

PolitiFact also found that a claim made by Fox News host Tucker Carlson that the coronavirus poses “virtually zero threat” to children and most teachers was mostly false. “Carlson’s language paints a black-and-white picture for children and teachers between death and full recovery,” the fact-checkers said. “Other outcomes — including hospitalisation — have occurred and are also harmful.”

Things that don’t cure and/or prevent COVID-19

#33: Vaccines against pneumonia
“Vaccines against pneumonia, such as pneumococcal vaccine and Haemophilus influenza type B (Hib) vaccine, do not provide protection against the new coronavirus.” ⁠— World Health Organisation

*The facts in this article are derived from the Australian RMIT ABC Fact Check newsletters which in turn draw on their own resources and those of their colleagues within the International Fact-Checking Network (IFCN), of which RMIT ABC Fact Check is a member.

The world is dealing with an unprecedented health crisis caused by a new virus. With new insights in the way COVID19 spreads, in the way the virus behaves and in the way to deal with the pandemic every day, it is now more important than ever to safeguard the information we share is accurate and fact-based. We have to inoculate ourselves against the fake news and misinformation that infect our newsfeeds and timelines at this crucial moment by fact-checking.

For the duration of the pandemic, I will try to give you an overview of the main issues in CoronaCheck, an Australian email newsletter with the latest from around the world concerning the coronavirus, but now appear only once a week.*

WHY FACT-CHECK?

As cases have continued to climb across Melbourne (in Victoria, Australia) doorknockers have targeted hotspot suburbs where community transmission is a concern, encouraging people to be tested.

Health Minister Jenny Mikakos said authorities had been “smashing targets for testing” with more than 164,000 people tested across Victoria and doorknockers reaching nearly 95,000 homes in just a few days,

But she said that more than 10,000 people had refused to be tested for a range of reasons, including that they may have already been swabbed.

She said officials were analysing the data for more clarity on their reasons. “It is concerning that the report that I have received is that some people believe coronavirus is a conspiracy or that it won’t impact on them.”

The statistics aren’t in yet, but it is worrying that people may believe unsubstantiated news and social-media myths and come to decisions based on these which could endanger their health and those around them and which could prevent the Victorian government from getting this outbreak under control. Apparently, fact-checking and countering online misinformation time and time again on social media is still very necessary as the following examples bear witness to.

THE ACCURACY OF COVID-19 TESTS

In one Facebook post spotted by Fact-check this week, a slick, shareable infographic posted by a newly-created Facebook page claims there is “no evidence” that COVID-19 tests used in Australia are accurate. The post, shared by Friends of Truth, also states they have not been safety tested and are “unapproved”.

A spokesman for the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) explained that there were two types of tests in Australia — PCR (polymerase chain reaction) tests used to diagnose COVID-19 and serology (antibody) tests, used to provide historic information about a person’s exposure to the virus.

“[The PCR] test is very accurate and is the primary method of diagnosis of a COVID-19 infection. False negative or false positive results can occur, but this is rare.”

“All sponsors of COVID-19 test kits included in the Australian Register of Therapeutic Goods (ARTG) are required [to] provide evidence to the TGA to support the quality and performance of the tests,” the spokesman continued.

On the claim that tests hadn’t undergone safety checks, the spokesman said the TGA was undertaking a “post-market review” of serology tests, including independent testing by the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity. Furthermore, Australian laboratories accredited to undertake COVID-19 testing were subject to “strict regulatory requirements” and “participated regularly in quality assurance programs to ensure the nucleic acid and serology-based COVID-19 tests in use are of the highest quality for the Australian community”.

At the beginning of the pandemic some tests were subject to an “emergency exemption” limited to accredited pathology laboratories but as there now are sufficient tests included in the ARTG exemptions are no longer necessary.

DON’T TAKE FACEBOOK POLLS AT FACE VALUE

The Friends of Truth page also claims that a poll conducted by 2GB radio host Ben Fordham found that “79 per cent of Australians oppose a compulsory vaccination”; a claim which has been shared more than 1,400 times.

But that statistic is problematic at best as the poll in question was not conducted according to professional standards because the question, “Do you think a Coronavirus vaccine should be compulsory?” was posted on Facebook, where the “yes/no” poll attracting 53,000 responses.

Anne Kruger, Asia-Pacific Director of verification organisation First Draft, told RMIT ABC Fact-check that First Draft researchers had regularly observed groups and individuals targeting Facebook polls to manipulate results. “Followers are asked to ‘raid’ the polls and vote according to the groups’ desired outcome,” Ms Kruger said. “This underscores the lack of reliability from such polls for the public to make informed decisions.”

Fact-check found the poll was shared by celebrity chef and coronavirus conspiracy theorist Pete Evans, who encouraged his 1.5 million followers to answer “No”, and was also posted multiple times to the page of the conspiracy group “99% unite Main Group — it’s us or them”.

That made the poll  “certainly not restricted to Australians,” she added. “We can see it was shared in public anti-vaccination and conspiracy theory groups in other countries as well, including the US, with members encouraged to vote ‘No’ to the question about the coronavirus vaccine.”

A further search by Michael Workman from the ABC’s Investigations Unit, connected with CrossCheck, found that Friends of Truth‘s website was registered to Ben Mitchell. On his Facebook page, musician Ben Mitchell posted a video in May stating that he had set up a Friends of Truth page on LBRY, a video, music and e-book sharing website.

HOW ABOUT THAT “SECOND WAVE”?

As Victoria battles a surge in coronavirus cases, the state’s Deputy Chief Medical Officer has sought to reassure the community that the uptick is not a “second wave”. But what does that mean? And can we expect a second wave eventually?

According to fact-checkers at USA Today, the concept of a “second wave” was first used as a metaphor during the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, when the disease briefly abated during summer months before fatalities picked up again.

But medical historian Howard Markel told USA Today the disease may not have come in “waves” at all. “It may be that they were hiding from it and as more people came out they were exposed to it,” he said.

The fact-checkers found that a claim that all past pandemics had featured a second, more deadly wave was historically inaccurate and that there was “no rule in epidemiology” dictating that a pandemic involves increasingly severe waves of infection.

“In many instances, including the current COVID-19 pandemic, the concept of waves may not accurately describe the course of the pandemic,” they concluded. “Rather, the trajectory of the virus will largely be determined by the varied human responses to the new coronavirus.”

FROM WASHINGTON, D.C.

Let’s not look at Trump this time but at his deputy, Vice President Mike Pence and his attempts to downplay the COVID-19 outbreak in the US.

According to fact-checkers at the Associated Press, Mr Pence last week told US senators that they should focus on the “encouraging signs”, and on Sunday said in a television interview that coronavirus outbreaks were occurring in only “4 per cent of all the counties in this country”.

But as AP reported, while it was correct that about 4 per cent of US counties were reporting increases in COVID-19 cases, they accounted for more than 20 per cent of the US population. “The emphasis on a percentage of counties makes for a misleading portrayal of the virus threat,” the fact-checkers said.

CNN’s Fact First also took a look at Mr Pence’s claims, including that all 50 US states were “opening up safely and responsibly”. According to the fact-checkers, Mr Pence’s claim came as “about 30 states were experiencing increases in the rate of new cases” and as states “reopened without having met the administration’s recommended safety milestones”.

Mr Pence also claimed that “to one extent or another, the volume of new cases coming in is a reflection of great success in expanding testing across the country”. However, as the New York Times pointed out in a fact-check, “ramped up testing alone does not account for the uptick in cases”. There had also been an increase in positive tests as a proportion of all tests.

Things that don’t cure and/or prevent COVID-19

#33: Hand dryers
“Hand dryers are not effective in killing the 2019-nCoV. To protect yourself against the new coronavirus, you should frequently clean your hands with an alcohol-based hand rub or wash them with soap and water.” – World Health Organisation

*The facts in this article are derived from the Australian RMIT ABC Fact Check newsletters which in turn draw on their own resources and those of their colleagues within the International Fact-Checking Network (IFCN), of which RMIT ABC Fact Check is a member.

The world is dealing with an unprecedented health crisis caused by a new virus. With new insights in the way COVID19 spreads, in the way the virus behaves and in the way to deal with the pandemic every day, it is now more important than ever to safeguard the information we share is accurate and fact-based. We have to inoculate ourselves against the fake news and misinformation that infect our newsfeeds and timelines at this crucial moment by fact-checking.

For the duration of the pandemic, I will try to give you an overview of the main issues in CoronaCheck, an Australian email newsletter with the latest from around the world concerning the coronavirus.*

As expected, with the curve flattening in Australia and Europe, the attention has turned to other news and the fake news and misinformation that go along with that, and fact-checkers are following. Unless a second wave of COVID-19 cases and fatalities brings about another wave of news manipulation, this article will now appear only once a week.

SOCIAL DISTANCING

A Meta-analysis (an analysis of existing scientific research) published in The Lancet found with “moderate certainty” that keeping a distance of a metre or more away from people with probable COVID-19, SARS or MERS cut the risk of infection from 13 per cent to 3 per cent. The analysis likewise found that “for every one metre further away in distancing, the relative effect might increase 2.02 times”.

So, according to Full Fact, the claims in UK media that keeping a distance of at least one metre from others could “slash the risk of catching coronavirus by 80 per cent”, and that doubling that distance may halve the risk, are both largely correct. But as Full Fact pointed out: “It is important to note that most of the research used in this study does not relate to COVID-19, but to SARS and MERS, diseases caused by other coronaviruses, which may spread differently.”

WEARING A MASK WON’T KILL YOU

Image source: Facebook

Fact-checkers at AFP found in a fact-check that a social media post claiming mask-wearing “reduces oxygen up to 60 per cent”, increased the risk of CO2 poisoning and led to more face touching to be misleading.

An associate medical officer of health at Toronto Public Health, Vinita Dubey, told AFP that if worn correctly, a cloth mask is unlikely to reduce oxygen enough that the wearer would pass out and that “prolonged use of a face mask, including the N95, has not been shown to cause carbon dioxide toxicity in healthy people”.

Another expert, Hyo-Jick Choi, of the University of Alberta, told the AFP fact-checkers he had not come across any study directly correlating mask-wearing to increased face-touching.

The claim of a woman in a viral video that mask-wearing hurts the immune system and does not protect from COVID-19 was also debunked by AFP, saying that “Multiple studies have shown that the use of masks can protect populations from COVID-19, including a recent publication by the UK’s Royal Society, which indicated that masks reduce droplets dispersal.”

According to Sheeley Payne, of the University of Texas, there’s no indication that masks hurt the immune system. As she told AFP, “there is no evidence that masks or gloves reduce the normal microbiota or predispose people to opportunistic infections”.

COVID-19 IS REAL AND DANGEROUS, TELL YOUR FRIENDS

Image source: Lead Stories

There are still a lot of claims going around that the COVID-19 pandemic is a hoax (or a flu-like illness, the severity of which has been greatly exaggerated), neither of which is true.

“There is no evidence of a connection between money donated to COVID-19 research and a pandemic designation,” the fact-checkers of Lead Stories concluded this week when they found that Bill Gates did not bribe the World Health Organisation with $50 million to declare COVID-19 a pandemic.

Lead Stories also debunked a claim that Russia used scientific data to expose the pandemic as a hoax, stating: “Authorities from Moscow’s health department did release information about antibody testing of a random population sample of Moscow residents in late May 2020, but they did not make the statement that COVID-19 is a fake pandemic.”

PolitFact found that a photo appearing to show a woman carrying a body bag casually in one hand, which was said to be further evidence that coronavirus is a hoax, instead showed a “symbolic funeral procession” as part of a protest in Florida against the reopening of the economy.

FROM WASHINGTON, D.C.

President Trump has been very busy escalating protests across the US in response to the death of George Floyd, but that hasn’t stopped him from attempting to divert blame for the rising COVID-19 death toll, again insinuating that China deliberately spread the coronavirus to the US and other parts of the world while managing to curb its spread domestically.

In a Fox News radio interview, Mr Trump said: “[The virus] came out of Wuhan. Why is it that it didn’t go to China but it went to the rest of the world? It went to Europe. It went to the world. It went to the United States. But it didn’t go to Beijing.” He further pointed out: “It didn’t go to other parts of China. What’s that all about? So, how come they let it go out to the world, but they didn’t let it go into China. That’s a little strange deal going on there.”

Factcheck.org found that those claims were inaccurate and that the virus did spread outside of Wuhan to other parts of China, including Beijing and noted: “That the virus did not spread as widely in China as it did in other countries, including the US, is largely the result of extreme measures taken by the Chinese government to control its spread.”

Graphic of the week

Statistics from the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System show Australia was experiencing above-average flu numbers before social distancing.

There were just 208 laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza in Australia during May this year, compared to 30,567 at the same time in 2019.

According to the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners, the first two months of this year saw Australia on track to surpass record-breaking flu caseloads in 2019 before numbers halved in March.

“It just tells us the value of physically distancing, good hand hygiene, avoiding mass gatherings [when sick], cough etiquette and being aware of all those other strategies to avoid the transmission of infectious diseases,” said Kerry Hancock, chair of the RACGP Specific Interests Respiratory Medicine network.

Things that don’t cure and/or prevent COVID-19

#30: Drinking methanol, ethanol or bleach
“Methanol, ethanol, and bleach are poisons. Drinking them can lead to disability and death. Methanol, ethanol, and bleach are sometimes used in cleaning products to kill the virus on surfaces – however, you should never drink them. They will not kill the virus in your body and they will harm your internal organs.” – World Health Organisation

*The facts in this article are derived from the Australian RMIT ABC Fact Check newsletters which in turn draw on their own resources and those of their colleagues within the International Fact-Checking Network (IFCN), of which RMIT ABC Fact Check is a member.