Experts in autocracies have pointed out that it is, unfortunately, easy to slip into normalizing the tyrant, hence it is important to hang on to outrage. These incidents which seem to call for the efforts of the Greek Furies (Erinyes) to come and deal with them will, I hope, help with that. Even though there are many more which I can’t include. As a reminder, though no one really knows how many there were supposed to be, the three names we have are Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone. These roughly translate as “unceasing,” “grudging,” and “vengeful destruction.”
The issue I’m looking at today is perhaps not as “sexy” as some other hot issues … but in the long run it is no less important.
We had hoped that in the age of technology, we could eradicate bias by putting 
computer programs in place of our old systems. With algorithm-based systems, we can make faster, less variable predictions about the likelihood of people ending up in the criminal justice system again, or recidivism. But it’s become increasingly apparent that automating the process made things worse because now we have taken old bias and embedded it by teaching it to computers. We hoped machines could provide the fair treatment humans have failed to give criminal defenders and past offenders—but they haven’t. (Emphasis mine)
Julia Dressel is a senior at Dartmouth, whose undergraduate honors thesis is gaining national attention. With professor Hany Farid, she released a report in the Journal of Science Advances titled “The accuracy, fairness, and limits of predicting recidivism.”
The two evaluated the risk assessment software COMPAS—Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions—and the results were shocking. Participants only had seven details about offenders, compared to 137 given to COMPAS, and were accurate 67 percent of the time.
ProPublica looked at the same software in 2016, and found high levels of racial bias. “Findings included heightened and false predictions on black recidivism, a false reduced risk for white recidivism and black defendants misclassified as having a higher risk for violent offenses.”
“Algorithmic tools sound impressive, so people are quick to assume that a tool’s predictions are inherently superior to human predictions. It’s dangerous if judges assume COMPAS produces accurate predictions, when in reality its accuracy is around 65 percent. Therefore, it’s important to expose when software like COMPAS isn’t performing as we expect. We cannot take any algorithm’s accuracy for granted, especially when the algorithm is being used to make decisions that can have serious consequences in someone’s life,” Dressel continued.
The justice systems injustices end up becoming self-fulfilling prophecies at worst, but, at best, self-perpetuating. When blacks are more likely mto be suspected, they are more likely to be prosecuted, and more likely to be convicted. Thus, they become more likely to have more crimes on their record than whites with otherwise similar profiles. The two most predictive criteria of recidivism are age and total number of prior convictions. The same bias that led to their prior convictions now leads to new bias in predicting recidivism. Yet all the original bias is also still working too.
“People with criminal records face significant collateral consequences of their conviction, including barriers to voting, employment, housing, and financial public assistance. These barriers complicate the reintegration process after incarceration and likely increase the odds a person will recidivate,” [Kara] Gotsch [of The Sentencing Project] explained…. The U.S. relies on incarceration and severe punishments to address circumstances that really result from our broken social safety net, like inadequate access to medical and mental health treatment, including drug treatment. Incarceration will not solve these problems, but community investment in services can.”
Certainly a black man with a college degree will get fewer job interviews than a white male high school graduate. But with equivalent education, a black man with no police record will also get fewer interviews than a white man with one felony conviction. I realize, as I expect most people who give the criminal justice system a moment’s though do, that anyone caught up in the justice system will lose thereby – black, white, Hispanic, Asian, men, women. The fact that certain groups lose more than other groups, if we are willing to look at that, can actually shed light on what everyone loses, and how appropriate those losses in reality are.
Since the studies publication, Northpointe, Inc. (now Equivant), which owns the 
COMPAS software, wrote an “Official Response” on its website that alleges Dressel’s research “actually adds to a growing number of independent studies that have confirmed that COMPAS achieves good predictability and matches the increasingly accepted AUC standard.” However, they make no mention of the racial bias and say they will review the materials from the study for accuracy.
If companies won’t take responsibility for making racial bias permanent, it’s up to us as a community to bring attention to racial disparities. Both the Sentencing Project and Dressel’s research are a step in the right direction.
Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone, at least this project will send you to computer labs rather than to associate with Dushes. That may or may not be a plus.
The Furies and I will be back.
Cross posted to Care2 HERE
Carl Gallups, a right-wing pastor and conspiracy theorist who spoke at Trump campaign rallies in 2016, appeared on TheDove TV’s “Focus Today” program yesterday [pseudo-Christians delinked] to discuss the mass shooting at a Florida high school earlier this week, which he said was part of a demonic attack aimed at weakening America through gun control in preparation for the rise of the Antichrist.
Because a Sunday without Wendy coming is so weird, I decided to treat myself to another pizza! 
Yum!! The Squatch has slammed Portland with an arctic blast, and we are entering the coldest days so far this winter. The lows for the next four days will be in the 20°s. I may actually have to shut my window!
