Yesterday, I worked on cutting my hair – not for appearance particularly, but to prevent it from landing in my eyes, or (in soe ways worse) in my mouth. I made progress … but it’s still a work in progress.
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engadget – QAnon founder may have been identified thanks to machine learning
Quote – With help from machine learning software, computer scientists may have unmasked the identity of Q, the founder of the QAnon movement. In a sprawling report published on Saturday, The New York Times shared the findings of two independent teams of forensic linguists who claim they’ve identified Paul Furber, a South African software developer who was one of the first to draw attention to the conspiracy theory, as the original writer behind Q. They say Arizona congressional candidate Ron Watkins also wrote under the pseudonym. Click through for more. This story made the New York Times, but I didn’t have a gift link to read it there. This was the best I could find.
The Conversation – Physics abd psychology of cats – an (improbable) conversation
Quote – We’ve had cats as pets for, like, 14,000 years. And in 14,000 years, the cats have told us that they want to live with us, and that they would like a comfortable bed, and they want food, and they want us to snuggle with them. In other words, the cats have really communicated all of their interests and needs such that we’re running around doing whatever they have in mind. So they’re doing a very good job. Click through. You may remember I mentioned that a webinar was scheduled with the IgNobel Prize paople on this subject. It was held, and it was taped in full. And a snippet of it has been transcribed here, with a link to the full video (with CC).
Black History – Wikipedia – Bessie Coleman
Quote – She was the first African-American woman and first Native American to hold a pilot license. She earned her license from the Fédération Aéronautique Internationale on June 15, 1921, and was the first Black person to earn an international pilot’s license…. She then became a high-profile pilot in notoriously dangerous air shows in the United States. She was popularly known as Queen Bess and Brave Bessie, and hoped to start a school for African-American fliers. Coleman died in a plane crash in 1926. Her pioneering role was an inspiration to early pilots and to the African-American and Native American communities. Click thrugh for article. These days, Earhart gets all the attention as a pioneering aviatrix, yet Coleman actually preceded her. (And Earhart did not have to travel to France – twice – to get her flight instruction.) In their own day, during the overlap of their careers, they were about equally prominent.
Experts in autocracies have pointed out that it is, unfortunately, easy to slip into normalizing the tyrant, hence it is important to hang on to outrage. These incidents which seem to call for the efforts of the Greek Furies (Erinyes) to come and deal with them will, I hope, help with that. As a reminder, though no one really knows how many there were supposed to be, the three names we have are Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone. These roughly translate as “unceasing,” “grudging,” and “vengeful destruction.”
If by any chance you were looking for a good example of the law of unintended consequences, here is one. Although “good” is probably not the appropriate word – it isn’t good at all. It is strong and convincing, however. What to do about it, I really don’t know. I wsh I did – although that might even be more frustrating if no one would listen.
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After the FDA issued warnings about antidepressants, youth suicides rose and mental health care dropped
The link between antidepressant use and increases in suicidal thoughts or behaviors among treated youth is unproven. FatCamera/E+ via Getty Images
Depression in young people is vastly undertreated. About two-thirds of depressed youth don’t receive any mental health care at all. Of those who do, a significant proportion rely on antidepressant medications.
Since 2003, however, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has warned that young people might experience suicidal thinking and behavior during the first months of treatment with antidepressants.
The FDA issued this warning to urge clinicians to monitor suicidal thoughts at the start of treatment. These warnings appear everywhere: on TV and the internet, in print ads and news stories. The most strongly worded warnings appear in black boxes on medication containers themselves.
We have found that FDA drug warnings can sometimes prevent life-threatening adverse effects, but that unintended consequences of these warnings are also common. In 2013, working for the FDA itself, we published a systematic review of the effects of previous FDA warnings on a variety of medications. We found that about a third backfired, resulting in underuse of needed care and other adverse effects.
In our more recent study from 2020, we found that the FDA antidepressant warnings have led to reduced mental health care and increased suicides among youth – even though researchers have yet to find a clear link between antidepressants and increased suicidality in young people.
Further, despite the warnings, monitoring by clinicians of suicidal thoughts at the start of treatment has not increased from its tiny rate of less than 5%.
Youth suicides rose following FDA warnings
For our 2020 study, we obtained 28 years of data, between 1990 and 2017, on actual suicide deaths in the U.S. among adolescents and young adults. We used data from the WONDER Database, maintained by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which contains mortality counts based on death certificates for U.S. residents and population counts for all U.S. counties.
We found that during the pre-warning period, there was a 13-year stable downward trend in youth suicides, following availability of new and safer antidepressants.
That trend reversed, we found, soon after the FDA began antidepressant warnings in late 2003. Youth suicide deaths increased significantly.
Then we applied our findings to the whole U.S. population of adolescents and young adults. The results of that analysis suggest that there were almost 6,000 additional suicide deaths in just the first six years after the FDA issued the boxed warnings, from 2005 through 2010. The rates also continued to rise thereafter.
Over this same time period, older adults – whose depression is not targeted by the warnings – experienced much lower increases in suicide.
Fewer depressed youths got treatment
Our findings align with a growing body of research that confirms these warnings have had serious unintended effects: scaring many patients, as well as their parents and doctors, away from both antidepressant medications and psychotherapy that can reduce major symptoms of depression.
These studies include a rigorous 2017 study that analyzed mental health care trends among 11 million youths who rely on Medicaid for insurance coverage. This research documented that immediately after the FDA warnings began in 2003, there was a sudden and sustained 30%-40% drop in youth visits to doctors for all depression care, including antidepressant prescriptions.
Seven years after the first FDA warning, doctor visits for depression by young people had dropped by around 50%, compared with the pre-warning trend, thus severely reducing treatment and suicide prevention.
Almost simultaneously, youth poisonings via prescription drugs, such as sleeping pills, went up. Research has shown that prescribed medications are a widespread method by which young people attempt suicide. This finding adds to the evidence that the antidepressant warnings increased suicidal behavior.
In 2018, researchers reported on two patients in their 20s whose experiences illustrate the potential real-life impacts of the black-box warnings. Both young adults had been prescribed antidepressants for major depression and severe panic attacks, but they refused to take them because of the FDA’s message.
Their conditions worsened, and eventually both attempted suicide. Fortunately, family members were able to intervene in time, and each young adult was then hospitalized.
After they accepted the reassurances of hospital psychiatrists that the benefits of the medications would likely exceed any risks, both patients began to take their prescribed antidepressants. These medications, combined with talk therapy, alleviated their symptoms without intensifying suicidal thoughts.
As scientists, we are trained to always seek potential alternative explanations – some additional factor not included in the research – that could explain the reduction in care or increase in suicides that we and others have recorded in our studies.
However, the sudden, simultaneous and large effects – all of which directly reduced treatment and increased suicidal behavior – strongly suggest this is not a coincidence. It is unlikely that any outside factor can account for the multiple parallel effects on depression care, suicidal behavior and suicide deaths.
A large and growing body of evidence shows that the FDA’s black-box warnings on antidepressants need to be reevaluated.
More generally, there’s a need for independent researchers to monitor the effects of FDA warnings on public health – both intended and unintended.
Stephen Soumerai, Professor of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Harvard University and Ross Koppel, Professor of Medical Informatics and Adjunct Professor of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania; Professor of Biomedical Informatics, University at Buffalo
============================================================== Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone, This is another situation in which I have been very fortunate and thrived while too many others have suffered. When I decided to seek prescriptive help for my condition, I had done dome research and had a particular drug in mind. The Doctor and I were not in total agreement on what the condition actually was – but the drug I had researched was used for both, and he was amenable to prescribing it for me. It worked very well, and I ave been stable on it for – well, actually decades. But not everyone can find (or trip over) the right places to research, not everyone can find a doctor who listens, and matbe even more to the point, not everyone can safely make it into their 40’s without self-harn.
Yesterday, the opera radio broadcast was “Boris Godunov” by Mussorgsky. The title role is for basses what the role of “Norma” is for sopranos – the pinnacle which everyone wants to reach but few can. Having just written about Ryan Speedo Green, and notoced that one of his teachers said his voive is still growing and will be growing for years, I wondered whether one day he would sing this. He was actually in this production in a supporting role. That gave me a smile.
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Crooks and Liars – ‘Freedom Convoy’ Leader Pat King Arrested While On Facebook Live
Quote – He was told he was being arrested for counselling to commit the offence of mischief, counselling to obstruct police and counselling to commit the offence of disobeying a court order. King told the officer he would like to call his lawyer. “I have the right to a lawyer?” he asked, to which the police officer responded: “Of course you do.” Click through. Police in the United States should watch this to learn how it’s supposed to be done. (And I love Canada’s use of he term “counselling” where we would say “inciting.’
Letters from an American – February 18, 2022
Friday is supposed to be a slow news day, but Heather cites four stpries, any one of which could be fron page news:
1. Yes, there was classified information in the documents Trump** took to Mar-a-Lago. And that’s not all.
2. Fake special counselJohn Durham alleges that RWNJ frenzy caused by hs reporting is not his problem.
3. In addition to the Humpty Dumpty – 1984 lawsuits, another Judge (Amir P. Mehta) declined to dismiss three other lawsuits against Trump** et al filed by member do Congress for conspiring to obstruct them in the performance of their duties.
Finally, President Biden’s address on Ukraine prompted political scientist (and journalist) David Rothkopf to point out that, in this address, Biden was speaking as the leader of the free world – and that ““It has been a long time since a U.S. president filled that role.” Sadly, the speech also made it clear that the president is pretty sure Russia will attack Ukraine. Click through for details. Her letters are long-ish, but this one is unusually juicy.
Black History – Wikipedia – James Armistead Lafayette
Quote – In 1781, after getting his enslaver’s consent, Armistead volunteered to join the army under Lafayette. Lafayette utilized Armistead as a spy, with the latter posing as a runaway slave. Armistead joined the camp of Brigadier General Benedict Arnold, the turncoat who was leading some British forces in the area. Pretending to be a spy for them allowed Armistead to gain Arnold’s confidence to the extent that Arnold used him to guide British troops through local roads. After Arnold departed north in the spring of 1781, James went to the camp of Lord Charles Cornwallis and continued his work. He moved frequently between British camps where the officers would speak openly about their strategies in front of him. Click through for everything we know about him. I wish it were more. I would have loved to quote the entire sections on “Emancipation” and “Later Life” but then it would not have been a short take. At least he was appreciated in his lifetime.
You’ve probably heard about the so-called Freedom Convoy of angry Canadian truckers who are fed up with all the common-sense regulations intended to curb the spread of COVID-19. No surprise that the MAGA bugnuts have taken their side. I can understand the frustration of having to heed the mandates, but there is no justification in rebelling against them.
We are now in year 3 of the COVID pandemic, and even with a vaccine and boosters we still have to take precautions. Yeah, yeah, masks are uncomfortable, lockdowns are not fun – but we all need to do our part. This situation is temporary, and the sooner we all each accept our personal responsibilities, the sooner the pandemic will be officially over and the sooner life will return to more-or-less normal.
Unfortunately, a lot of people, out of entitlement or selfishness or cowardice or denial or some combination of the four, are refusing to face reality. COVID-19 is real, 100% REAL. Wearing a mask in public is not the same as being forced to wear a Star of David. Really – how low can you go, people, viciously slapping those of certain ethnicities in their faces? Comparing mask and vaccination mandates to the brutal persecution of Jews isn’t comparing apples to oranges – it’s comparing apples to Portobello mushrooms.
Recently Canada’s Superior Court of Justice blocked GiveSendGo, a crowdfunding site that has raised money for far-right extremist organizations such as the Proud Boys, from sending $9 million to the anti-vaccine truckers. Seriously? Those donors are willing to give $9 million to help advocates of childish selfishness? Nine million bucks would go a long way to feeding a lot of hungry mouths, or housing a lot of homeless people. Or paying the medical bills of COVID-19 victims. But these pseudo-Christians would rather support criminals and terrorists.
The “Freedom” Convoy has paralyzed traffic and trade in both Canada and the United States, blocking the Ambassador Bridge between Detroit, MI and Windsor, ON. One report estimated that U.S. workers and businesses have already lost some $51 million in damaged commerce and wages due to the action. Far from being a convoy of freedom, it is a convoy of destruction, harming commerce and innocent workers. But these spoiled brats don’t care. The Free-Dumb Convoy suck-a-thumbs will allow the economies of two nations to tank just because they’re too chicken-doody to wear masks and get vaccinations. They profess to be defending freedom, but in reality they seek to destroy democracy and enforce fascism.
Thankfully, there has been plenty of backlash against them. Residents of several Canadian cities have held counter-demonstrations against the convoy. Canadian police have arrested more than 100 of these troublesome truckers.
The Freedom [sic] Convoy has done a wonderful job of giving normally polite and respectful Canadians – 90% of whom are fully vaccinated – a collective black eye. Apparently the Great White North has caught second-hand right-wing nuttiness from the USA.
Progressives on both sides of the border need to cooperate in order to battle right-wing extremism, an evil that respects no political boundary.
Yesterday, I watched Ari Melber Claire McKaskill, and a third person discuss a judge calling Trump’s lawyers arguments Humpty-Dumpty-esque for over 14 minutes – and NOT ONE of them mentioned what the judge must have meant by that. It’s clearly a reference (and they did mention Alice in Wonderland) to Through the Looking Glas where Humpty Dumpty said, “When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean, neither more nor less.” As Alice pointed out, it doesn’t work that way (though he was not convinced and babblrd on about how he was paying them to do his bidding.) It’s quite a conversation – and it is exactly like Trump** and Trump** lawyers. But they all seemed to think the judge was alluding to Humpty Dumpty’s fall. I think not. Anyway, I also got my groceries in and mostly put away. The frozen and refrigerated stuff immediately, of course, but the rest could wait longer (for me to be rested between trips.) I didn’t receive everything – but at least there were no substitutions.
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Mother Jones – My Family Lost Our Farm During Japanese Incarceration. I Went Searching for What Remains.
Quote – The anti-Japanese sentiment that allowed for such a drastic action to take place did not spring up suddenly after Pearl Harbor, but had been simmering for decades, stoked by white labor and business groups resentful of Japanese workers and farmers. Japanese Americans who were forced off their land lost property worth an estimated $3.7 billion in today’s dollars, and $7.7 billion worth of income. Click through. Today is the day. The eightieth anniversary of that executive order. And, yes, it was racism, but specifically the fear aspect of racism. Who benefits from keeping people in fear? Certainly not the people who are terrified.
HuffPost – Child Poverty Spiked After Tax Credit Expired, Early Research Suggests
Quote – Democrats failed to extend a credit late last year, due to the opposition of Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). The last monthly check was paid out to parents on Dec. 15. After this tax season, the credit will return to its previous $2,000 level and parents with no income will no longer be eligible. Manchin told colleagues and constituents he thought parents wasted the money on drugs. Though he avoided taking a clear public position on the policy, he suggested it should have a “work requirement.” Click through for details/ I would file this under “No shit, Sherlock.” And it really frosts me when people, especially in the media, say “Congress” when what they should be saying is “Republicans” (and, in this case, a DINO.)
CBS News – Ryan Speedo Green: From juvenile delinquency to opera stardom
Quote – As a 12-year-old in Virginia, Ryan Speedo Green was the author of an impressive rap sheet. He was so violent he was banished to a class for delinquents. And when he couldn’t be contained there, he was sent to a juvenile lockup. Those who knew the boy with the unusual name, could see that the child was writing a tragedy. Now, as a man, tragedy has become the dominant theme in his life, but in a way that no one could have imagined. Click through for bio. Or, if you’re in a hurry, click here for this video from September 28, 2016, the night before he opened the season at the Met (hanky alert). I just didn’t want to ley the month go by without sharing this remarkable story.