{"id":9353,"date":"2012-11-04T07:38:10","date_gmt":"2012-11-04T15:38:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/?p=9353"},"modified":"2012-11-04T07:38:10","modified_gmt":"2012-11-04T15:38:10","slug":"election-projection1142012","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/2012\/11\/04\/election-projection1142012\/","title":{"rendered":"Election Projection–11\/4\/2012"},"content":{"rendered":"

My latest projections of the Presidential Race and Senate Races now do reflect public reaction to all the Presidential debates.  If a candidate is 3% or more ahead in the average polls, I call that state for that candidate.  I do this because the margins for error in most polls is 3% or less. I reduced this from 5%, because the election is only two days away.  I am also including my final projection, in which I predict all the states, no matter how close.  For the toss up states, I relied on the age of the available polls, the reliability of the research companies that conducted them, the methodologies they published, and when all else failed, gut instinct.  We\u2019ll see how I did soon.<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

President<\/font><\/strong>:<\/font><\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

\"4ElecProjPres\"<\/p>\n

\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Even States<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

State<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

EV<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Obama<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Romney<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

CO<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

FL<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

29<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

NC<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

16<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

46<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

VA<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

18<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n

This represents an electoral vote count of 281 to 191 in favor of Barack Obama. .  Of the even states Obama leads in none , Romney leads in one (16 votes).  Three are tied (56 votes).  Overall this is a significant improvement for Obama.<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

The Senate<\/font><\/strong>:<\/font><\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

\"4ElecProjSen\"<\/p>\n

\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Even Senate<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

MT<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Tester – D<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Rehberg – R<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

ND<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Heitkamp – D<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Berg – R<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

VA<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Kaine – D<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

46<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Allen – R<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

45<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

WI<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Baldwin -D<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

46<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Thompson -R<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

45<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n

The current tally is:<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

\n

Democrats: 50<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

Republicans: 45<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

Independent: 2<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

Undecided: 4<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Of the undecided races, Democrats lead in 2 states, Republicans in 1 state.  1 state is tied.<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/p>\n

This is a significant improvement for Democrats.<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

Map credit: <\/font>270 to Win<\/a><\/font><\/font><\/font><\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

Stats credit: <\/font>ElectoralVote.com<\/a><\/font><\/font><\/font><\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

In the Senate the two leading Independents are Bernie Sanders (VT) and Angus King (ME).  Bernie will caucus with the Democrats, and although King\u2019s views are very close to the Democrats, he has not yet committed to caucus with either party.<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

I used statistics with Rasmussen excluded.  Polls determine their mix of Democrats, Republicans and Independents based on self-identification.  Because of the Republican shift to the extreme right, some former Republicans now self-identify as Independents, and some former Independents now self-identify as Democrats, reflecting a shift in the electorate.  Most polls are including more Democrats and fewer Republicans proportional to that shift in self-identification, as they should.  It seems that Rasmussen weights their sample with more Republicans that the actual demographics support, reflecting their Republican bias and skewed results.<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

It now appears likely that Obama will win the Presidency, and that Democrats will hold the Senate.  <\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

Here are my final projections, with all states called.<\/font><\/p>\n

President<\/strong>:<\/font><\/p>\n

\"4ElecFinPres\"<\/font><\/p>\n

I expect Obama to win 303 to 235<\/font><\/p>\n

The Senate<\/strong>:<\/font><\/p>\n

\"4ElecFinSen\"<\/font><\/p>\n

I expect that the new Senate will include 53 Democrats, 45 Republicans, and 2 Independents.  <\/font><\/p>\n

Whomever you vote for, the most important vote in this election is yours.  The two things I cannot factor in are voter disenfranchisement, and Republican election theft crimes.<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

I don\u2019t know if I can holds out, but on election  night I intend to live blog, updating maps as results come in.<\/font><\/p>\n

\"Vote_Check-mark_2\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

My latest projections of the Presidential Race and Senate Races now do reflect public reaction to all the Presidential debates.  If a candidate is 3% or more ahead in the average polls, I call that state for that candidate.  I do this because the margins for error in most polls is 3% or less. I […]<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9353","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-editorial","category-politics","category-19-id","category-5-id","post-seq-1","post-parity-odd","meta-position-corners","fix"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9353","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9353"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9353\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9353"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9353"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9353"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}