{"id":9264,"date":"2012-10-28T10:57:48","date_gmt":"2012-10-28T17:57:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/?p=9264"},"modified":"2012-10-29T09:40:59","modified_gmt":"2012-10-29T16:40:59","slug":"election-projection10282012","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/2012\/10\/28\/election-projection10282012\/","title":{"rendered":"Election Projection–10\/28\/2012"},"content":{"rendered":"
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My latest projections of the Presidential Race and Senate Races now do reflect public reaction to the second Presidential debate, but not the third.  If a candidate is 5% or more ahead in the average polls, I call that state for that candidate.  I do this because the margins for error in most polls is 5% or less. These numbers are always subject to change.  Nest week I will lower that to 3%, because the elections are so close.<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

President<\/font><\/strong>:<\/font><\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

\"28ElecProjPres\"<\/p>\n

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\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Even States<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

State<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

EV<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Obama<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Romney<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

AZ<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11<\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

44<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

CO<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

46<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

FL<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

29<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

IA<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

16<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

49<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

NC<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

15<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

NH<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

49<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

NV<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

50<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

OH<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

18<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

46<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

VA<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

13<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n

This represents an electoral vote count of 247 to 180 in favor of Barack Obama. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have changed from undecided to Obama.  Of the even states Obama leads in six (68 votes), Romney leads in two (40 votes).  One is tied (15 votes).  Overall this is a significant improvement for Obama.<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

The Senate<\/font><\/strong>:<\/font><\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

\"28ElecProjSen\"<\/p>\n

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\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Even Senate<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

AZ<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Carmona – D<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

45<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Flake – R<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

42<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

CT<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Murphy -D<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

McMahon – R<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

44<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

IN<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Donnelly -D<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

45<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Mourdock – R<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

44<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

MT<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Tester – D<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Rehberg – R<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

45<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

ND<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Heitkamp – D<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Berg – R<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

49<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

NE<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Kerrey – D<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

46<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Fischer – R<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

NV<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Berkley – D<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

45<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Heller – R<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

46<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

TN<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Clayton – D<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Corker – R<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

51<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

vA<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Kaine<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

46<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Allen<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

45<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

WI<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Baldwin – D<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Thompson – R<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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46<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n

The current tally is:<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

\n

Democrats: 45<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

Republicans: 44<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

Independent: 2<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

Undecided: 10<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Of the undecided races, Democrats lead in 6 states, Republicans in 4 states.<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/p>\n

This is a slight improvement for Republicans.<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

Map credit: <\/font>270 to Win<\/a><\/font><\/font><\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

Stats credit: <\/font>ElectoralVote.com<\/a><\/font><\/font><\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

In the Senate the two leading Independents are Bernie Sanders (VT) and Angus King (ME).  Bernie will caucus with the Democrats, and although King\u2019s views are very close to the Democrats, he has not yet committed to caucus with either party.<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

I used statistics with Rasmussen excluded.  Polls determine their mix of Democrats, Republicans and Independents based on self-identification.  Because of the Republican shift to the extreme right, some former Republicans now self-identify as Independents, and some former Independents now self-identify as Democrats, reflecting a shift in the electorate.  Most polls are including more Democrats and fewer Republicans proportional to that shift in self-identification, as they should.  It seems that Rasmussen weights their sample with more Republicans that the actual demographics support, reflecting their Republican bias and skewed results.<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

It now appears more likely that Obama will win the Presidency than it did last week, and still likely that Democrats will hold the Senate.  I spoke in error last week when I said this would be the last report.  I shall make one final projection next Sunday.<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

Once again, these numbers are subject to change at a moments notice, so this is no reason to relax our efforts to send the Republican party the way of the Whigs.<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

Whomever you vote for, the most important vote in this election is yours.<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

My latest projections of the Presidential Race and Senate Races now do reflect public reaction to the second Presidential debate, but not the third.  If a candidate is 5% or more ahead in the average polls, I call that state for that candidate.  I do this because the margins for error in most polls is […]<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9264","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-editorial","category-politics","category-19-id","category-5-id","post-seq-1","post-parity-odd","meta-position-corners","fix"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9264","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9264"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9264\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9264"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9264"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9264"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}