{"id":9058,"date":"2012-10-07T09:44:04","date_gmt":"2012-10-07T16:44:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/?p=9058"},"modified":"2012-10-07T09:44:04","modified_gmt":"2012-10-07T16:44:04","slug":"election-projection1072012","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/2012\/10\/07\/election-projection1072012\/","title":{"rendered":"Election Projection–10\/7\/2012"},"content":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s getting closer as we are now within one month of election day, so here are my latest projections of the Presidential Race, plus I am adding close Senate Races for the first time.  If a candidate is 5% or more ahead in the average polls, I called that state for that candidate.  Especially because the most recent polls reflect public reactions to neither the Presidential debate, nor the drop in the unemployment rate, these numbers are subject to change.<\/font><\/p>\n

President<\/strong>:<\/font><\/p>\n

\"7ElecProjPres\"<\/font><\/p>\n

\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Even States<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

State<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

EV<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Obama<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Romney<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

FL<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

29<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

45<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

NC<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

15<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

VA<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

13<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

46<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n

This represents an electoral vote count of 290 to 191 in favor of Barack Obama.<\/font><\/p>\n

The Senate<\/strong>:<\/font><\/p>\n

\"7ElecProjSen\"<\/font><\/p>\n

\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Even Senate<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

AZ<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Carmona – D<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

43<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Flake – R<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

43<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

CT<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Murphy -D<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

McMahon – R<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

45<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

IN<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Donnelly -D<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

40<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Mourdock – R<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

38<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

MT<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Tester – D<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

45<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Rehberg – R<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

45<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

ND<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Heitkamp – D<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Berg – R<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

46<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

NV<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Berkley – D<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

46<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Heller – R<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

TN<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Clayton – D<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Corker – R<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

51<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

VA<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Kaine – D<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Allen – R<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

44<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n

The current tally is:<\/font><\/p>\n

\n

Democratic 48<\/font><\/p>\n

Republican 42<\/font><\/p>\n

Independent 2<\/font><\/p>\n

Undecided 8<\/font><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

<\/font><\/p>\n

Map credit: 270 to Win<\/a><\/font><\/p>\n

Stats credit: ElectoralVote.com<\/a><\/font><\/p>\n

In the Senate the two leading Independents are Bernie Sanders (VT) and Angus King (ME).  Bernie will caucus with the Democrats, and although King\u2019s views are very close to the Democrats, he has not yet committed to caucus with either party.<\/font><\/p>\n

I used statistics with Rasmussen excluded.  Polls determine their mix of Democrats, Republicans and Independents based on self-identification.  Because of the Republican shift to the extreme right, some former Republicans now self-identify as Independents, and some former Independents now self-identify as Democrats, reflecting a shift in the electorate.  Most polls are including more Democrats and fewer Republicans proportional to that shift in self-identification, as they should.  It seems that Rasmussen weights their sample with more Republicans that the actual demographics support, reflecting their Republican bias and skewed results.<\/font><\/p>\n

Once again, these numbers are subject to change at a moments notice, so this is no reason to relax our efforts to send the Republican party the way of the Whigs.<\/font><\/p>\n

Whomever you vote for, the most important vote in this election is yours.<\/font><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s getting closer as we are now within one month of election day, so here are my latest projections of the Presidential Race, plus I am adding close Senate Races for the first time.  If a candidate is 5% or more ahead in the average polls, I called that state for that candidate.  Especially because […]<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[141,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9058","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-plus","category-politics","category-141-id","category-5-id","post-seq-1","post-parity-odd","meta-position-corners","fix"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9058","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9058"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9058\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9058"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9058"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9058"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}