{"id":8857,"date":"2012-09-16T12:05:48","date_gmt":"2012-09-16T19:05:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/?p=8857"},"modified":"2012-09-16T12:05:48","modified_gmt":"2012-09-16T19:05:48","slug":"election-projection9162012","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/2012\/09\/16\/election-projection9162012\/","title":{"rendered":"Election Projection–9\/16\/2012"},"content":{"rendered":"

Like last week, here is my 2012 election map with my projections.  Please understand that I am working with the election system we have, although I find that system to be grossly anti-democratic.  I shall cover how I would change it at end of the article.<\/font><\/p>\n

\"16ElecProj\"<\/font><\/p>\n

Map credit: 270 to Win<\/a><\/font><\/p>\n

I moved Wisconsin out of the blue column and put it back in the toss-up states, because Ryan\u2019s activity there has moved the race closer than it was last week.  That makes the electoral vote count 237 for Obama and 191 for Romney, so Obama needs 33 more to win.<\/font><\/p>\n

There are nine states too close to call, and here are the latest poll averages.<\/font><\/p>\n

\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Toss-up States<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

 <\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

State<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

EV<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Obama<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Romney<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

CO<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48.3<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

45.3<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

FL<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

29<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47.8<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

46.5<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

IA<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

45<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

44.8<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

NV<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

49<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

45.7<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

NH<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47.3<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

43.3<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

NC<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

15<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

45<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

49.8<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

OH<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

18<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48.5<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

44.3<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

VA<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

13<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47.3<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

WI<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48.2<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

46.8<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Polling data credit: Real Clear Politics<\/a><\/font><\/p>\n

Obama increased his lead in Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire and Ohio.  Romney increased his lead in North Carolina and decreased Obama\u2019s lead in Virginia and Wisconsin.  Iowa and Nevada were unchanged.<\/font><\/p>\n

While I still consider Obama\u2019s reelection highly likely, that should not be cause for complacency.  There is no way for this projection to account for the votes that will not be cast, because of Republican measures to deprive legitimate Democratic voters of their right to vote.<\/font><\/p>\n

Now, if I could I would change the system in two ways.  I would do away with the Electoral College and make the vote for President a national populate vote.  That would eliminate all the economic benefits of the election going to a few swing states.  It would also end the imbalance that makes a vote in Wyoming count over twice what a vote in California does.  Second, I would place plurality rile with true majority rule with preference voting in all elections.  Voters would cast ballots with their first second and third choice candidates.  If counting everyone\u2019s first choice does not produce a majority the ballots would be recounted, substituting the highest choice that made the top two for all voters whose first choice did not.  In that way we get true majority rule without stigmatizing third parties.<\/font><\/p>\n

\n

Every Vote Counts<\/font><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/b><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Especially YOURS!<\/u><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/b><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

<\/span><\/span><\/span> <\/p>\n

 <\/font><\/font><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Like last week, here is my 2012 election map with my projections.  Please understand that I am working with the election system we have, although I find that system to be grossly anti-democratic.  I shall cover how I would change it at end of the article. Map credit: 270 to Win I moved Wisconsin out […]<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8857","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-editorial","category-politics","category-19-id","category-5-id","post-seq-1","post-parity-odd","meta-position-corners","fix"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8857","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8857"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8857\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8857"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8857"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8857"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}