{"id":50519,"date":"2023-01-15T16:31:40","date_gmt":"2023-01-16T00:31:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/?p=50519"},"modified":"2023-01-15T16:31:40","modified_gmt":"2023-01-16T00:31:40","slug":"everyday-erinyes-353","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/2023\/01\/15\/everyday-erinyes-353\/","title":{"rendered":"Everyday Erinyes #353"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Experts in autocracies have pointed out that it is, unfortunately, easy to slip into normalizing the tyrant, hence it is important to hang on to outrage. These incidents which seem to call for the efforts of the Greek Furies (Erinyes) to come and deal with them will, I hope, help with that. As a reminder, though no one really knows how many there were supposed to be, the three names we have are <strong><span style=\"color: #800000;\">Alecto<\/span><\/strong>, <span style=\"color: #800000;\"><strong>Megaera<\/strong><\/span>, and <strong><span style=\"color: #800000;\">Tisiphone<\/span><\/strong>. These roughly translate as &#8220;unceasing,&#8221; &#8220;grudging,&#8221; and &#8220;vengeful destruction.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>I said last week I wasn&#8217;t finished with the subject of the Speakership of the House of Representatives. I expect thet after today I will be &#8211; for a while. I assume what inspired this article is the fact that the GOP majority in the house is so slender &#8211; more so even than our was for the last two years. And McCarthy is no Pelosi. Also, the Republican Party is in rupture, not only in the House, but statewide in most states (if not all of them) and nationally.<\/p>\n<p>As the author points out, deaths happen. Resignations happen, for whatever reasons. And, with this majority, it&#8217;s a good bet indictments are going to happen. I don&#8217;t know to whom, I don&#8217;t know for what crimes, I certainly don&#8217;t know for how many. But even if the House decides to stand by its felons, some crimes currently under investigation are such as to constitutionally disqualify the felon from public office.<br \/>\n==============================================================<\/p>\n<h1 class=\"legacy\">Speaker of the House faces political peril from member deaths and resignations \u2013 especially with a narrow\u00a0majority<\/h1>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/502982\/original\/file-20230103-90208-fzjg6u.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;rect=18%2C9%2C3129%2C2223&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" \/><figcaption>GOP House leader Kevin McCarthy wants to be speaker of the House.<br \/>\n<span class=\"attribution\"><a class=\"source\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gettyimages.com\/detail\/news-photo\/house-minority-leader-kevin-mccarthy-speaks-to-reporters-news-photo\/1454009418?phrase=Kevin%20McCarthy&amp;adppopup=true\">Kevin Dietsch\/Getty Images<\/a><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/charles-r-hunt-1364391\">Charles R. Hunt<\/a>, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/boise-state-university-1983\">Boise State University<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2022\/12\/29\/politics\/kevin-mccarthy-house-speaker-bid\/index.html\">arm-twisting<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.esquire.com\/news-politics\/politics\/a42355661\/kevin-mccarthy-speaker-multiple-ballots\/\">dealmaking<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2022\/12\/29\/battleground-republicans-vote-mccarthy-speaker-00075846\">vote hunting<\/a> around Kevin McCarthy\u2019s quest to be named House speaker have put on full display the fact that razor-thin majorities in both the House and the Senate are becoming a fact of life at the federal level.<\/p>\n<p>In multiple ballots conducted on Jan. 3, 2023 to elect the speaker of the House, McCarthy <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/live\/2023\/01\/03\/us\/house-speaker-vote\">failed to get the required number of votes<\/a>. Additional balloting is expected in the race for speaker.<\/p>\n<p>Slim margins might make for <a href=\"https:\/\/rollcall.com\/2022\/12\/30\/speaker-race-headed-toward-dramatic-floor-election\/\">dramatic television<\/a>, but they create legislative and institutional uncertainty that has very real consequences for how Congress is run and how policy gets made.<\/p>\n<p>Because the GOP\u2019s 10-seat House majority is so small, McCarthy has had to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2023\/01\/02\/politics\/kevin-mccarthy-house-speaker-struggle\/index.html\">placate the moderate wing, the right wing and the far-right wing<\/a> of his conference \u2013 all at the same time \u2013 in his quest for the speaker\u2019s gavel.<\/p>\n<p>The GOP\u2019s slim majority may actually get slimmer. This is because of seat vacancies caused by the early departures of members of Congress. These vacancies happen with regularity, and could have major impacts on the Republicans\u2019 legislative agenda over the next two years.<\/p>\n<p>A slim majority means that the Republican leadership can\u2019t afford to lose support from even small groups of members within their party. But each congressional session, some members depart Congress early, leaving vacancies that can complicate party leaders\u2019 efforts to placate their competing factions or blocs. Imagine, for example, that a moderate Republican member dies or resigns in the next few months. Will that person be replaced with another moderate? A Trump-aligned Republican? A Democrat?<\/p>\n<p>With such a small advantage, the potential effect of this replacement is huge \u2013 not just for McCarthy, but for Congress as a whole, and the American people, whose lives are affected by legislation passed by Congress.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"align-center zoomable\"><a href=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/502866\/original\/file-20230102-22-38d3f6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/502866\/original\/file-20230102-22-38d3f6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" sizes=\"(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/502866\/original\/file-20230102-22-38d3f6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/502866\/original\/file-20230102-22-38d3f6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/502866\/original\/file-20230102-22-38d3f6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/502866\/original\/file-20230102-22-38d3f6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/502866\/original\/file-20230102-22-38d3f6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/502866\/original\/file-20230102-22-38d3f6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w\" alt=\"A flag-draped casket is in the middle of a large, stately hall, surrounded by people.\" \/><\/a><figcaption><span class=\"caption\">Visitors file past the flag-draped casket of Rep. Don Young, R-Alaska, as he lies in state in Statuary Hall at the U.S. Capitol on March 29, 2022.<\/span><br \/>\n<span class=\"attribution\"><a class=\"source\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gettyimages.com\/detail\/news-photo\/visitors-file-past-a-flag-draped-casket-of-rep-don-young-as-news-photo\/1239598559?phrase=Don%20Young&amp;adppopup=true\">Drew Angerer\/Getty Images<\/a><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>How do vacancies occur?<\/h2>\n<p>The 117th Congress, which met from Jan. 3, 2021, to Jan. 3, 2023, set a modern record with 15 vacancies, a rate unmatched going back to the 1950s. This was partly because of six member <a href=\"https:\/\/www.adn.com\/politics\/2022\/03\/18\/alaska-us-rep-don-young-has-died-according-to-former-aides\/\">deaths, including Rep. Don Young, R-Alaska<\/a>, the longest-serving House member at the time. A number of these vacancies occurred in the first days of the 117th, when several Democratic House members, including Cedric Richmond of Louisiana and Marcia Fudge of Ohio, took positions in the new Biden administration.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" id=\"7wXRs\" class=\"tc-infographic-datawrapper\" style=\"border: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/7wXRs\/2\/\" width=\"100%\" height=\"400px\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>High-profile vacancies in recent history were due to other causes. Some members were forced to resign because of scandal, like Rep. Jeff Fortenberry, R-Neb., who was convicted in 2022 for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2022\/03\/26\/1089034831\/nebraska-fortenberry-resigns\">lying to the FBI about illegal campaign contributions<\/a>. Others cut short their current term, leaving Congress after losing their primaries, as <a href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/Cantor_announces_resignation,_effective_August_18\">Rep. Eric Cantor, a Virginia Republican, did in 2014<\/a>. House Speaker John Boehner, a Republican from Ohio, resigned after facing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/story\/2015\/09\/speaker-john-boehner-retiring-from-congress-at-the-end-of-october-214056\">threats of being ousted from leadership in 2015<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>And although the 117th was a banner Congress for vacancies, the historical data demonstrates that they happen all the time. Based on my analysis, there are usually at least a handful of vacancies per two-year congressional cycle.<\/p>\n<p>Resignation is the most common reason for departure in recent Congresses. However, at least one member \u2013 and often more than one \u2013 has died in all but one Congress in the past 70 years. The number of deaths that regularly occur among members is more than sufficient to change how the majority party functions in a closely contested Congress like this one.<\/p>\n<p>This potentially leaves party leaders captive to some particular interest, either in their party or in the opposition party.<\/p>\n<h2>How are vacancies filled?<\/h2>\n<p>Although U.S. Senate vacancies are often \u2013 though not always \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncsl.org\/research\/elections-and-campaigns\/vacancies-in-the-united-states-senate637302453.aspx\">filled through an appointment by the governor of that state<\/a>, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.everycrsreport.com\/files\/2021-01-08_IF11722_dcbc4bdca5fddd5b46b49cc06ba113d2ac8d43f0.pdf\">Constitution mandates that House vacancies be filled by special elections<\/a> scheduled by the governor.<\/p>\n<p>These elections usually happen within a few months of the vacancy. What this means is that there are real possibilities for the size of a party\u2019s majority to shrink, or grow, between election years. And even if a majority party shift doesn\u2019t happen, a district could still replace a moderate departing representative with an extremist, or vice versa.<\/p>\n<p>Special elections have received <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/yes-special-elections-really-are-signaling-a-better-than-expected-midterm-for-democrats\/\">significant focus<\/a> from the media and the public in recent years. That\u2019s mainly because their results, when compared with the most recent result for that seat, can be bellwethers for how the next set of congressional elections will turn out.<\/p>\n<p>For example, a number of special elections throughout 2022 \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2022\/08\/31\/alaska-palin-peltola-house\/\">including the Alaska race to replace Young<\/a> \u2014 showed even or Democratic-leaning results compared with 2020, giving <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/08\/24\/upshot\/midterms-elections-republicans-analysis.html\">early indications<\/a> that the \u201cred wave\u201d many experts predicted would not actually materialize.<\/p>\n<figure><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/rlrp1Cvbono?wmode=transparent&amp;start=0\" width=\"440\" height=\"260\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><figcaption><span class=\"caption\">Speaker of the House John Boehner, a Republican, announced his resignation from Congress on Sept. 25, 2015, and gave this speech.<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>What does this mean for the 118th Congress?<\/h2>\n<p>A vacating member, and the special election that decides a successor, is not just an electoral crystal ball. It can have major implications for the balance of power in Congress; any GOP leader will have to manage these implications.<\/p>\n<p>On the right, there is the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.legistorm.com\/organization\/summary\/128166\/House_Freedom_Caucus.html\">44-member House Freedom Caucus<\/a> and, more specifically, the \u201cMAGA Squad\u201d \u2013 think Lauren Boebert, Matt Gaetz and Andy Biggs. To the left, there\u2019s a swath of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2022\/12\/15\/politics\/moderate-republicans-kevin-mccarthy-speaker\/index.html\">more moderate Republicans<\/a> from such states as New York and Ohio with no intention of letting far-right firebrand Marjorie Taylor Greene control the agenda.<\/p>\n<p>These are two factions of Republicans who want vastly different action in the 118th Congress. The moderate bloc understands that, with a Democratic Senate and Joe Biden as president, compromise with Democrats may be necessary for legislative achievement.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the far-right bloc has made other priorities clear, such as relentlessly investigating Biden, his administration and his family. Managing these competing demands will be hard enough for the new House speaker and unexpected vacancies could make the task even harder.<\/p>\n<p>Beyond the tensions among Republicans, Democrats will be ready to pounce on any opportunity to divide and conquer. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/12\/29\/us\/politics\/george-santos-what-next.html\">recent revelations<\/a> surrounding incoming Rep. George Santos, a Republican from New York, who allegedly fabricated huge portions of his r\u00e9sum\u00e9 and personal story during his campaign, represent one such potential opportunity. If Santos is forced to resign, a Democratic victory in a special election in his Long Island swing district could cut the GOP\u2019s majority from 10 to eight.<\/p>\n<p>Even if special elections don\u2019t change a party\u2019s control over certain seats, vacancies can and will throw the 118th House of Representatives into chaos by shifting the balance of power from one ideological bloc to another. More chaos, that is, than it is already enduring.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/197112\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" \/><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https:\/\/theconversation.com\/republishing-guidelines --><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/charles-r-hunt-1364391\">Charles R. Hunt<\/a>, Assistant Professor of Political Science, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/boise-state-university-1983\">Boise State University<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/speaker-of-the-house-faces-political-peril-from-member-deaths-and-resignations-especially-with-a-narrow-majority-197112\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>==============================================================<br \/>\n<strong><span style=\"color: #800000;\">Alecto<\/span><\/strong>, <span style=\"color: #800000;\"><strong>Megaera<\/strong><\/span>, and <strong><span style=\"color: #800000;\">Tisiphone<\/span><\/strong>, personally, I look forward to legal actions which will shrink the Republican majority, possibly even turn it into a minority. And he made the concession that it takes just one person now to move to vacate the chair.<\/p>\n<p>The Furies and I will be back.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Experts in autocracies have pointed out that it is, unfortunately, easy to slip into normalizing the tyrant, hence it is important to hang on to outrage. These incidents which seem to call for the efforts of the Greek Furies (Erinyes) to come and deal with them will, I hope, help with that. As a reminder, <a href='https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/2023\/01\/15\/everyday-erinyes-353\/' class='excerpt-more'>[&#8230;]<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":50369,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[4165,3729,5205,5260],"class_list":["post-50519","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","tag-congress","tag-furies","tag-speaker-of-the-house","tag-speakership","category-5-id","post-seq-1","post-parity-odd","meta-position-corners","fix"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50519","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50519"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50519\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50369"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50519"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50519"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50519"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}