{"id":42026,"date":"2020-11-28T10:00:35","date_gmt":"2020-11-28T18:00:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/?p=42026"},"modified":"2020-11-28T10:17:52","modified_gmt":"2020-11-28T18:17:52","slug":"everyday-erinyes-242","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/2020\/11\/28\/everyday-erinyes-242\/","title":{"rendered":"Everyday Erinyes #242"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Experts in autocracies have pointed out that it is, unfortunately, easy to slip into normalizing the tyrant, hence it is important to hang on to outrage. These incidents which seem to call for the efforts of the Greek Furies (Erinyes) to come and deal with them will, I hope, help with that. As a reminder, though no one really knows how many there were supposed to be, the three names we have are <strong><span style=\"color: #800000;\">Alecto<\/span><\/strong>, <span style=\"color: #800000;\"><strong>Megaera<\/strong><\/span>, and <strong><span style=\"color: #800000;\">Tisiphone<\/span><\/strong>. These roughly translate as &#8220;unceasing,&#8221; &#8220;grudging,&#8221; and &#8220;vengeful destruction.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>I saw a <a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/curiouserinstitute\/a-game-designers-analysis-of-qanon-580972548be5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">wicked good article on QAnon last week<\/a>, written by a game designer. If you have time you should really look at it. But here&#8217;s a quote which gives you the key takeaway:<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;When I saw QAnon, I knew exactly what it was and what it was doing. I had seen it before. I had almost built it before. It was gaming\u2019s evil twin. <span style=\"color: #ff6600;\"><em><strong><span style=\"color: #800080;\">A game that plays people.<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/span>&#8221;\u00a0 Cue ominous music:<\/p>\n<audio class=\"wp-audio-shortcode\" id=\"audio-42026-1\" preload=\"none\" style=\"width: 100%;\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"audio\/wav\" src=\"https:\/\/www.7thstep.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/ominous.wav?_=1\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.7thstep.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/ominous.wav\">https:\/\/www.7thstep.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/ominous.wav<\/a><\/audio>\n<p>While we probably can train ourselves to be on the alert for telltale signs of phony conspiracies, not everyone has the time or the disposition. That&#8217;s why I was so relieved to see the article which follows:<br \/>\n================================================================<\/p>\n<h1 class=\"legacy\">An AI tool can distinguish between a conspiracy theory and a true conspiracy \u2013 it comes down to how easily the story falls apart<\/h1>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/368679\/original\/file-20201110-13-667v56.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;rect=0%2C0%2C3699%2C2440&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" \/><figcaption>In the age of social media, conspiracy theories are collective creations.<br \/>\n<span class=\"attribution\"><a class=\"source\" href=\"https:\/\/newsroom.ap.org\/detail\/QAnon\/6f09da76236342f1b998cd548bd0fab0\/photo?boardId=6576eeb175bb4623a6e17828de4a73e8&amp;st=boards&amp;mediaType=audio,photo,video,graphic&amp;sortBy=&amp;dateRange=Anytime&amp;totalCount=3&amp;currentItemNo=1\">AP Photo\/Ted S. Warren<\/a><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/timothy-r-tangherlini-950995\">Timothy R. Tangherlini<\/a>, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/university-of-california-berkeley-754\">University of California, Berkeley<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>The audio on the otherwise shaky <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcwashington.com\/news\/local\/body-cam-video-shows-arrest-of-pizzagate-gunman_washington-dc\/4525\/\">body camera footage<\/a> is unusually clear. As police officers search a handcuffed man who moments before had fired a shot inside a pizza parlor, an officer asks him why he was there. The man says to investigate a pedophile ring. Incredulous, the officer asks again. Another officer chimes in, \u201cPizzagate. He\u2019s talking about Pizzagate.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In that brief, chilling interaction in 2016, it becomes clear that conspiracy theories, long relegated to the fringes of society, had moved into the real world in a very dangerous way.<\/p>\n<p>Conspiracy theories, which have the potential to <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/coronavirus-conspiracy-theories-are-dangerous-heres-how-to-stop-them-spreading-136564\">cause significant harm<\/a>, have found a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/petersuciu\/2020\/09\/11\/conspiracy-theories-have-gained-traction-since-911-thanks-to-social-media\/?sh=2df479703ddb\">welcome home on social media<\/a>, where forums free from moderation allow like-minded individuals to converse. There they can develop their theories and propose actions to counteract the threats they \u201cuncover.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But how can you tell if an emerging narrative on social media is an unfounded conspiracy theory? It turns out that it\u2019s possible to distinguish between conspiracy theories and true conspiracies by using machine learning tools to graph the elements and connections of a narrative. These tools could form the basis of an early warning system to alert authorities to online narratives that pose a threat in the real world.<\/p>\n<p>The culture analytics group at the University of California, which <a href=\"https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/citations?user=9lmyivIAAAAJ&amp;hl=en\">I<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/citations?user=GrBOKEsAAAAJ&amp;hl=en\">Vwani Roychowdhury<\/a> lead, has developed an automated approach to determining when conversations on social media reflect the telltale signs of conspiracy theorizing. We have applied these methods successfully to the study of <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0233879\">Pizzagate<\/a>, the <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s42001-020-00086-5\">COVID-19 pandemic<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2196\/publichealth.6586\">anti-vaccination movements<\/a>. We\u2019re currently using these methods to study <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-socialmedia-qanon-factbox\/factbox-what-is-qanon-and-how-are-online-platforms-taking-action-on-it-idUSKBN2702L5\">QAnon<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2>Collaboratively constructed, fast to form<\/h2>\n<p>Actual conspiracies are deliberately hidden, real-life actions of people working together for their own malign purposes. In contrast, conspiracy theories are collaboratively constructed and develop in the open.<\/p>\n<p>Conspiracy theories are deliberately complex and reflect an all-encompassing worldview. Instead of trying to explain one thing, a conspiracy theory tries to explain everything, discovering connections across domains of human interaction that are otherwise hidden \u2013 mostly because they do not exist.<\/p>\n<figure><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/xQ6mg67VcG0?wmode=transparent&amp;start=0\" width=\"440\" height=\"260\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><figcaption><span class=\"caption\">People are susceptible to conspiracy theories by nature, and periods of uncertainty and heightened anxiety increase that susceptibility.<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>While the popular image of the conspiracy theorist is of a lone wolf piecing together puzzling connections with photographs and red string, that image no longer applies in the age of social media. Conspiracy theorizing has moved online and is now the <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1145\/3097286.3097297\">end-product of a collective storytelling<\/a>. The participants work out the parameters of a narrative framework: the people, places and things of a story and their relationships.<\/p>\n<p>The online nature of conspiracy theorizing provides an opportunity for researchers to trace the development of these theories from their origins as a series of often disjointed rumors and story pieces to a comprehensive narrative. For our work, Pizzagate presented the perfect subject.<\/p>\n<p>Pizzagate began to develop in late October 2016 during the runup to the presidential election. Within a month, it was fully formed, with a complete cast of characters drawn from a series of otherwise unlinked domains: Democratic politics, the private lives of the Podesta brothers, casual family dining and satanic pedophilic trafficking. The connecting narrative thread among these otherwise disparate domains was the fanciful interpretation of the leaked emails of the Democratic National Committee <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/2016\/7\/23\/12261020\/dnc-email-leaks-explained\">dumped by WikiLeaks<\/a> in the final week of October 2016.<\/p>\n<h2>AI narrative analysis<\/h2>\n<p>We developed a model \u2013 a set of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyreview.com\/2018\/11\/17\/103781\/what-is-machine-learning-we-drew-you-another-flowchart\/\">machine learning<\/a> tools \u2013 that can <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0233879\">identify narratives<\/a> based on sets of people, places and things and their relationships. Machine learning algorithms process large amounts of data to determine the categories of things in the data and then identify which categories particular things belong to.<\/p>\n<p>We analyzed 17,498 posts from April 2016 through February 2018 on the Reddit and 4chan forums where Pizzagate was discussed. The model treats each post as a fragment of a hidden story and sets about to uncover the narrative. The software identifies the people, places and things in the posts and determines which are major elements, which are minor elements and how they\u2019re all connected.<\/p>\n<p>The model determines the main layers of the narrative \u2013 in the case of Pizzagate, Democratic politics, the Podesta brothers, casual dining, satanism and WikiLeaks \u2013 and how the layers come together to form the narrative as a whole.<\/p>\n<p>To ensure that our methods produced accurate output, we compared the narrative framework graph produced by our model with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2016\/12\/10\/business\/media\/pizzagate.html\">illustrations published in The New York Times<\/a>. Our graph aligned with those illustrations, and also offered finer levels of detail about the people, places and things and their relationships.<\/p>\n<h2>Sturdy truth, fragile fiction<\/h2>\n<p>To see if we could distinguish between a conspiracy theory and an actual conspiracy, we examined <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2016\/11\/04\/nyregion\/george-washington-bridge-scandal-what-you-need-to-know.html\">Bridgegate<\/a>, a political payback operation launched by staff members of Republican Gov. Chris Christie\u2019s administration against the Democratic mayor of Fort Lee, New Jersey.<\/p>\n<p>As we compared the results of our machine learning system using the two separate collections, two distinguishing features of a conspiracy theory\u2019s narrative framework stood out.<\/p>\n<p>First, while the narrative graph for Bridgegate took from 2013 to 2020 to develop, Pizzagate\u2019s graph was fully formed and stable within a month. Second, Bridgegate\u2019s graph survived having elements removed, implying that New Jersey politics would continue as a single, connected network even if key figures and relationships from the scandal were deleted.<\/p>\n<p>The Pizzagate graph, in contrast, was easily fractured into smaller subgraphs. When we removed the people, places, things and relationships that came directly from the interpretations of the WikiLeaks emails, the graph fell apart into what in reality were the unconnected domains of politics, casual dining, the private lives of the Podestas and the odd world of satanism.<\/p>\n<p>In the illustration below, the green planes are the major layers of the narrative, the dots are the major elements of the narrative, the blue lines are connections among elements within a layer and the red lines are connections among elements across the layers. The purple plane shows all the layers combined, showing how the dots are all connected. Removing the WikiLeaks plane yields a purple plane with dots connected only in small groups.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"align-center \"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/358963\/original\/file-20200921-14-vv5sq9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" sizes=\"(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/358963\/original\/file-20200921-14-vv5sq9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=722&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/358963\/original\/file-20200921-14-vv5sq9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=722&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/358963\/original\/file-20200921-14-vv5sq9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=722&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/358963\/original\/file-20200921-14-vv5sq9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=907&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/358963\/original\/file-20200921-14-vv5sq9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=907&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/358963\/original\/file-20200921-14-vv5sq9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=907&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w\" alt=\"Two graphs, one above and one below, showing dots with interconnecting lines\" \/><figcaption><span class=\"caption\">The layers of the Pizzagate conspiracy theory combine to form a narrative, top right. Remove one layer, the fanciful interpretations of emails released by WikiLeaks, and the whole story falls apart, bottom right.<\/span><br \/>\n<span class=\"attribution\"><a class=\"source\" href=\"https:\/\/journals.plos.org\/plosone\/article?id=10.1371\/journal.pone.0233879\">Tangherlini, et al.<\/a>, <a class=\"license\" href=\"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\">CC BY<\/a><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Early warning system?<\/h2>\n<p>There are clear ethical challenges that our work raises. Our methods, for instance, could be used to generate additional posts to a conspiracy theory discussion that fit the narrative framework at the root of the discussion. Similarly, given any set of domains, someone could use the tool to develop an entirely new conspiracy theory.<\/p>\n<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/us\/newsletters\/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&amp;utm_medium=inline-link&amp;utm_campaign=newsletter-text&amp;utm_content=deepknowledge\">Sign up for The Conversation\u2019s newsletter<\/a>.]<\/p>\n<p>However, this weaponization of storytelling is already occurring without automatic methods, as our study of social media forums makes clear. There is a role for the research community to help others understand how that weaponization occurs and to develop tools for people and organizations who protect public safety and democratic institutions.<\/p>\n<p>Developing an early warning system that tracks the emergence and alignment of conspiracy theory narratives could alert researchers \u2013 and authorities \u2013 to real-world actions people might take based on these narratives. Perhaps with such a system in place, the arresting officer in the Pizzagate case would not have been baffled by the gunman\u2019s response when asked why he\u2019d shown up at a pizza parlor armed with an AR-15 rifle.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/146282\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" \/><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https:\/\/theconversation.com\/republishing-guidelines --><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/timothy-r-tangherlini-950995\">Timothy R. Tangherlini<\/a>, Professor of Danish Literature and Culture, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/university-of-california-berkeley-754\">University of California, Berkeley<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/an-ai-tool-can-distinguish-between-a-conspiracy-theory-and-a-true-conspiracy-it-comes-down-to-how-easily-the-story-falls-apart-146282\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>================================================================<br \/>\n<strong><span style=\"color: #800000;\">Alecto<\/span><\/strong>, <span style=\"color: #800000;\"><strong>Megaera<\/strong><\/span>, and <strong><span style=\"color: #800000;\">Tisiphone<\/span><\/strong>, the best science and technology in the world underperforms (to say the least) if people don&#8217;t believe it, don&#8217;t use it, won&#8217;t use it. Some conspiracies are real. More are not. I hope you can put a fire under all of us to use the technology and trust the results.<\/p>\n<p>The Furies and I will be back.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Experts in autocracies have pointed out that it is, unfortunately, easy to slip into normalizing the tyrant, hence it is important to hang on to outrage. These incidents which seem to call for the efforts of the Greek Furies (Erinyes) to come and deal with them will, I hope, help with that. As a reminder, <a href='https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/2020\/11\/28\/everyday-erinyes-242\/' class='excerpt-more'>[&#8230;]<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":40593,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[4201,3779,3729],"class_list":["post-42026","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","tag-ai","tag-conspiracy-theories","tag-furies","category-5-id","post-seq-1","post-parity-odd","meta-position-corners","fix"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42026","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42026"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42026\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40593"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42026"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42026"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42026"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}