{"id":33960,"date":"2018-10-09T13:23:51","date_gmt":"2018-10-09T20:23:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/?p=33960"},"modified":"2018-10-09T13:23:51","modified_gmt":"2018-10-09T20:23:51","slug":"election-outlook-10-9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.politicsplus.org\/blog\/2018\/10\/09\/election-outlook-10-9\/","title":{"rendered":"Election Outlook 10\/9"},"content":{"rendered":"

We have four weeks left before the 2018 Midterms.  They are finally sufficiently close at hand that some of the research being done will be valid.  Therefore, I’d like to give you a broad overview of what we can expect in November.  The biggest unknowns are how big a backlash we can expect from the bogus confirmation of Pervert Kava-Nazi and how big a counter backlash Republicans can get from their lies about being the innocent victims.<\/font><\/p>\n

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\"1009SURFING-DONKEY\"<\/p>\n

The Washington Post, in partnership with the Schar School<\/a>, polled the 69 districts that were rated as \u201ctoss-ups,\u201d \u201clean Republican,\u201d or \u201clean Democrat\u201d by the Cook Political Report this past August \u2014 and found that voters in such areas prefer a Democratic Congress by a margin of 50 to 46 percent. By contrast, in 2016, these same districts collectively favored Republican candidates by a margin of 56 to 41 percent.<\/p>\n

The Democrats four-point lead in these battlegrounds might look perilously thin on first blush. But of the 69 districts polled, 63 are currently held by Republican incumbents; and to take the House, Democrats need to flip just 23<\/strong>. Which is to say: Pelosi\u2019s party can afford to lose far more than half of these contests, and still get her the Speaker\u2019s gavel. If Democrats win the popular vote across these battlegrounds by any margin at all, they will almost certainly win control of Congress\u2019s lower chamber.<\/p>\n

Should that happen, Democrats will owe college-educated women some thank-you cards. Demographically, the House battlegrounds are 7 percent more white than America as a whole; in previous elections, this dearth of African-American and Hispanic voters has rendered Democrats uncompetitive in most of these districts. But the battlegrounds are also 4 percent more college-educated than the country writ large \u2014 and in the Trump era, few things are more threatening to Republicans than a woman with a higher education: White, college-educated women in the battleground districts favor Democrats over Republicans by a whopping 62 to 35 percent margin<\/strong>, while white women without such diplomas back Republicans 49 to 45 percent… [emphasis added<\/em>]<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Inserted from <NY Magazine<\/a>><\/font><\/p>\n

Here is the Real Clear Politics Senate Outlook<\/a>:<\/font><\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n
\n
\n\n\n\n
\n

44<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Democrats *<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Toss Ups<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

7<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n
\n\n\n\n
\n

Republicans<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

49<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n

\n\n\n\n
\n

37 Safe or Not Up<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

7<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

2<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

46 Safe or Not Up<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n

51 Seats Needed For Majority <\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

You can see the difficulty we face.  I expect 49 – 50 seats.  I’d be thrilled with 51.  We are more likely to make gains in 2020.<\/font><\/p>\n

Here is the Real Clear Politics House Outlook<\/a>:<\/font><\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n
\n
\n\n\n\n
\n

205<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Democrats<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Toss Ups<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

32<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n
\n\n\n\n
\n

Republicans<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

198<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n

\n\n\n\n
\n

173<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

14<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

18<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

32<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

24<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

13<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

161<\/strong><\/font><\/font><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n

218 Seats Needed For Majority<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n

Our chances are much better here.  I expect 235 – 240 seats.<\/font><\/p>\n

If you really want to get down and dig in the weeds, Politico analyzed and projected every House, Senate and Governor race<\/a>.  Have fun!<\/font><\/p>\n

Finally, Lawrence O’Donnell<\/a> highlighted a couple Democratic stars.<\/font><\/p>\n