May 102016
 

It’s really too early in the election cycle to pay much attention to polls, and it will be until after the bump from the Democratic Convention levels off in mid=August.  However, I consider the poll-based election map by Cook Political worthy of note, because if the shift that took place when Rump Dump Trump became the presumptive Republican nominee.

0510Map

This has been an exceedingly unpredictable year. Although we remain convinced that Hillary Clinton is very vulnerable and would probably lose to most other Republicans, Donald Trump’s historic unpopularity with wide swaths of the electorate – women, millennials, independents and Latinos – make him the initial November underdog.

As a result, we are shifting 13 ratings on our Electoral Vote scorecard, almost all of them favoring Democrats. Our assessments are based on publicly available polling, data on demographic change and private discussions with a large number of pollsters in both parties. Much could change, but undecided voters begin more hostile to Trump than Clinton.

With these changes, 190 Electoral Votes are in the Solid Democratic column, 27 are in Likely Democratic and another 87 are in Lean Democratic – enough for a majority. Yet another 44 Electoral Votes are in Toss Up. Although Iowa, New Hampshire and Ohio could shift to Lean Democratic and Nevada could shift to Likely Democratic, we are holding off on changes in these states until we see more evidence… [emphasis added]

Inserted from <Cook Political>

Thank badness for Rump Dump.  If Hillary gets the nomination, we can’t just assume that she will be elected.  We’ll have to fight for it.  Rump Dump makes a win possible.  Any Republican in the White House would transform America into hell on earth.

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Apr 142016
 

Yesterday Lu came for the last time.  She was about four hours late, but getting the day right was an improvement.  So I’m a perfumed puddy tat.  My groceries came.  I put them away.  I also did the dreaded task! Eye rolling smile  Tomorrow I have an appointment with a Retinal Ophthalmologist to check out my choroidal nevi.  The appointment will take three hours, and I’ll be unable to use a computer afterwards until late tomorrow night.  So expect only a Personal Update, please.

Jig Zone Puzzle:

Today’s took me 2:51 (average 4:33).  To do it, click here.  How did you do?

Short Takes:

From Daily KosWhen Scott Walker came into office, he claimed that he had no interest in trying to get “Right to Work” laws passed. Unfortunately for the people of Wisconsin, Scott Walker is a liar and a terrible person. In fact, he and his fellow Republican legislators introduced an ALEC inspired written bill making Wisconsin a Right to Work state. Since the bill was signed into law, Wisconsin’s workforce has diminished by at least 10,000. Wisconsin is hemorrhaging jobs because Right to Work laws don’t have anything to do with generating living wage jobs, or much in the way of real work, at all. Three unions filed lawsuits against the bill, arguing that the law posed an unconstitutional seizure of union property, and on Friday they received some good news:

Dane County Circuit Judge William Foust agreed. He said the law amounts to the government taking union funds without compensation since under the law they must represent people who don’t pay dues. That presents an existential threat to unions, Foust wrote.

"While (union) losses today could be characterized by some as minor, they are not isolated and the impact of (the law) over time is threatening to the unions’ very economic viability," he wrote.

This judgement, [sic] calling the law unconstitutional on the grounds that it is an “existential threat,” could have some far-reaching ramifications in the many Republican-backed legislatures that really want to put the screws to the working folk of this country. The importance of this ruling also means that there will be further appeals.

This issue is far from settled, but any day the Koch-sucking Fartfuhrer of Fitzwalkerstan takes a loss at any level is a better day for America.

From Real Clear Politics:

Polling Data

Poll

Date

Sample

MoE

Cooper (D)

McCrory (R)

Spread

RCP Average

1/18 – 4/11

44.0

41.0

Cooper +3.0

WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA

4/8 – 4/11

701 LV

3.8

47

43

Cooper +4

Elon University

2/15 – 2/17

1530 LV

2.5

42

40

Cooper +2

PPP (D)

1/18 – 1/19

948 RV

3.2

43

40

Cooper +3

It looks like the Religious Reichsfuhrer of the Theocratic Republican Dictatorship of McCrorystan is also experiencing backlash from his hatred and bigoted policies.

From TPM: Donald Trump’s campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, will not be prosecuted in Florida for battery after he allegedly manhandled a reporter, Politico reported on Wednesday night, citing unnamed sources.

CNN also reported that Lewandowski will not be prosecuted early Thursday morning, citing unnamed sources.

What a travesty!  Don’t get me wrong!  I have no bias favoring his victim.  The reporter he assaulted worked for Breitfart, a source for which I have so little regard, that I refuse to embed links to it.

Cartoon:

0414Cartoon

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Feb 122016
 

It’s another busy day.  Jeannie (shower-aide), Arvilla (PT) and Tracey (OT) have come and gone.  This is my last day with all three of them.  I will miss them.  They have taught me a lot.  Starting on the 26th, I’ll go out for  PT/OT on the 2nd and 4th Friday of every month.

Jig Zone Puzzle:

Today’s took me 3:15 (average 5:20).  To do it, click here.  How did you do?

Patty Monster:

We have not seen our beloved Patty Monster for some time, so when the Squatch mentioned it yesterday, I sent Patty an email. Here is her reply.

Hi Tom.

So sorry i’ve been AWOL. I’ve just been busy around here and trying to limit my computer time.

I promise that I will show up again from time to time if for nothing else but the crossword puzzle.

Keep up the good fight. I still am!

My love and hugs to you all! Patty

Short Takes:

From Alternet: Soviet Jews: “The emigration of Jews from the Soviet Union is not an objective of American foreign policy. And if they put Jews into gas chambers in the Soviet Union, it is not an American concern. Maybe a humanitarian concern.” (link)

This is the first of ten Inhuman and typically Republican quotes from Henry Kissinger, whom Hillary praised last year, Click through for the other nine.

From Crooks and Liars: Oh, Ted. What have you done now? First you approved an attack ad against Donald Trump that creepily used children chanting "eminent domain" and for an encore, you’ve done, what?

BarF Bag Alert!!

 

The woman Uranus Inspector picked for the above commercial, Amy Lindsey, is a soft porn star. Perhaps he needs to turn his TRUS down a notch or three.  Bwahahahahaha!!

0212AmyLindsey

From The Guardian: Democrats Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders next square off in the Nevada caucuses. Who’s ahead there? Who knows – there’s not much polling. The Real Clear Politics average uses two polls in the last four months and shows Clinton up 20.

But hold the phone: a new poll by a TargetPoint, a Republican polling firm, conducted for the Washington Free Beacon finds – a tie! at 45-45.

That should be interesting!

Cartoon:

0212Cartoon

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Dec 162015
 

Here are the results of our “Terrorist Identification” poll.  Politics Plus Polls are not scientific, because those who respond are not balanced according to demographic categories.   Therefore, we do not accurately reflect the makeup of the US population.  Nevertheless, our polls are usually factually accurate, and more often than not, they reflect thinking or will of the national majority.

1216Poll

Since our polling site no longer enables us to copy and paste your poll comments, you may read them here.

I voted with the majority that attending a religious service is not a terrorist act.  Hate crimes are.

There is a new poll up.  Please vote.

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Dec 132015
 

I have a nurse coming this morning to help me set up services at home, so if this is late, that’s why.  Tomorrow I have to go to TriMet to have my wheelchair measured, so expect only a Personal Update, and that late.  Today is a holy day in the Church of the Ellipsoid Orb.  My Broncos service is with the Raiders, and I get to see it.  Wooo Hooo!!

Short Takes:

From Daily Kos (Classic 10/2014):It’s been in the news. Now it has been confirmed. As of this past weekend, Raymond Leo Burke, America’s highest-ranking cardinal at the Vatican, was officially removed from the Vatican’s Supreme Court, and demoted to chaplain of the Knights of Malta, where he will reign with much less responsibility. The ultra-Conservative and anti-gay cardinal, continuously challenges the jurisdiction of Pope Francis, and the Catholic Church’s new receptive stance on homosexuality.

How ironic it is to find the demoted cardinal is from the United States. What does that say about America – that even the Catholic Church and a pope are ahead of so many anti-LGBT lawmakers and extremists in this country.

Weeks after taking office in 2013, Pope Francis asked, ‘Who am I to judge?’ speaking of the LGBT community.

Although I disagree with Francis on many issues, he is more willing to coexist than any other Pope has been.

From NY Times: Senator Ted Cruz of Texas surged to a 10-point lead in a new poll released Saturday of likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa, signaling that his campaign is gathering momentum and suggesting that a long nominating fight is ahead.

Donald J. Trump, who continues to lead most national polls, was second in the Iowa poll, with 21 percent naming him as their first choice, compared with Mr. Cruz’s 31 percent.

Ben Carson, after leading an October survey by the same pollster, commissioned by The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics, tumbled to 13 percent, followed by Senator Marco Rubio of Florida at 10 percent.

If anyone could be worse than Hairball, it’s Uranus Inspector.

From Think Progress: In a literally world-changing deal that was almost unthinkable just a year ago, some two hundred leading nations unanimously embraced a plan that will leave most of the world’s fossil fuels unburned.

As part of a concerted effort to avoid catastrophic climate change, the world unanimously committed to an ongoing effort of increasingly deeper emissions reductions aimed at keeping total warming “to well below 2°C [3.6°F] above preindustrial levels.” The full text of this Paris Agreement goes even further, with the parties agreeing “to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.”

Already, global coal use appears to be plateauing, and global oil use will likely follow suit in the next decade as countries ratchet up their CO2 targets.

To get an idea of how challenging these negotiations have been, imagine trying to get a substantive agreement on any major topic in the U.S. Senate if the requirement for success were unanimity! Tragically, conservatives in Congress are doing everything that they can to undermine this deal, which is humanity’s best chance to avoid decades if not centuries of needless suffering for billions of people.

In my view, this plan does not go far enough, but I prefer it to nothing at all.

Cartoon:

1213Cartoon

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Dec 012015
 

Here are the results of our “Media Daesh” poll.  Politics Plus Polls are not scientific, because those who respond are not balanced according to demographic categories.   Therefore, we do not accurately reflect the makeup of the US population.  Nevertheless, our polls are usually factually accurate, and more often than not, they reflect thinking or will of the national majority.

1201Poll

Since our polling site no longer enables us to copy and paste your poll comments, you may read them here.

I voted with the majority that the media pay too much attention to the Daesh.  They also pay too much attention to the West’s pseudo-Christian counterpart of the Daesh:  the Republican Party.

The new poll is posted and is ready you your votes.  Please do.

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Nov 122015
 

Well it poured rain last night, pinging off the rain spout at a ferocious rate.  I was very glad to be inside!  The rain continues this morning but not hard like last night.  Thanks to Lona who sent me a fresh supply of cat naps.  I availed myself of two yesterday which was good for the cold/cough.  Today is scheduled to be a low key day with laundry a prime concern.  Can't have a "furless" sasquatch!

Puzzle — Today’s took me 3:51 (average 6:11). To do it, click here. How did you do? For those that don't know, we always do the 48 piece classic.

Short Takes

The New Yorker — To winnow the field of candidates who would hold the main stage in the second G.O.P. debate, in September, CNN had intended to use the average of national polls conducted over the summer. But after Carly Fiorina’s campaign complained that the method was unfair CNN changed its formula. The decision had very little to do with American democracy or social science. It had to do with the practice of American journalism. It would make better television if Fiorina was on the same stage as Trump, since he’d made comments about her appearance. (“Look at that face!” he said.)

“No one tells me what to say,” Trump had said in August. By September, on the defensive about Fiorina, he insisted—he knew—that he had the will of the people behind him. “If you look at the polls,” he said, “a lot of people like the way I talk.”

Donald Trump is a creature of the polls. He is his numbers. But he is only a sign of the times. Turning the press into pollsters has made American political culture Trumpian: frantic, volatile, shortsighted, sales-driven, and anti-democratic.

He kept his lead nearly till the end of October. “Do we love these polls?” he called out to a crowd in Iowa. “Somebody said, ‘You love polls.’ I said that’s only because I’ve been winning every single one of them. Right? Right? Every single poll.” Two days later, when he lost his lead in Iowa to Ben Carson, he’d grown doubtful: “I honestly think those polls are wrong.” By the week of the third G.O.P. debate, he’d fallen behind in a national CBS/NYT poll. “The thing with these polls, they’re all so different,” Trump said, mournfully. “It’s not very scientific.” 

This is a long but interesting article about polling and the reliance on and influence of polls in the electoral process. The uneducated mind may rely on polls too much as politicians may rely on them to inform their policy positions rather than listening to their constituents.  Click through for the rest of this article.

Think Progress — In August, New York-based Amalgamated Bank announced it would immediately raise its minimum pay to at least $15 an hour.

At the time, the bank noted that it was the first to make such an announcement. But it’s also committed to making sure more follow its lead.

The bank, which is owned by the union OPEIU, came to the $15 wage floor in the midst of contract negotiations with the union. The contract also specifies automatic 3 percent increases each year, ensuring annual raises for its workforce. “It’s a bold move,” said CEO Keith Mestrich. “We need to be bold like that.”

This is great news!  When I started as a teller, I was paid about $1.55 per hour.  That was 45 years ago.  But even then, I could not afford to share an apartment with rent of $250 per month.  Click through for the rest of the story.

Huffington Post — Republican presidential candidates debated once again on economic issues and offered some misleading takes on jobs, tax plans, immigrants and state budgets.

  • Florida Sen. Marco Rubio said that “welders make more money than philosophers.” Actually, those with undergraduate degrees in philosophy earn a higher median income than welders.
  • Businessman Donald Trump said that President Dwight D. Eisenhower had forced out 1.5 million immigrants who were in the country illegally. The federal government claimed it was 1.3 million, but historians say that’s exaggerated.
  • Texas Sen. Ted Cruz said the Tax Foundation calculated that his tax plan “costs less than virtually every other plan people have put up here, and yet it produces more growth.” But the foundation said Bobby Jindal’s and Rubio’s plans both would lead to higher gross domestic product growth over a decade.
  • Cruz also repeated the years-long falsehood that there’s a “congressional exemption” from Obamacare. Members of Congress and their staffs face additional requirements than other Americans, not fewer.
  • Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal said that his state has had “eight credit upgrades,” but two credit rating agencies moved the state to a “negative” outlook in February. And it faces a $117 million deficit in its most recent budget.
  • Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee said he had cut his state budget by 11 percent during the 2001-2003 recession. Over his entire tenure, however, spending went up by 50 percent.
  • Jindal claimed that there were “more people working in Louisiana than ever before.” That’s wrong. There were fewer Louisianans working in September than there were in December 2014.
  • Huckabee said that Syrians make up only 20 percent of the refugees arriving in Europe. The figure is actually 52 percent for 2015.

Click through for the analysis of these claims.  I was very surprised when I didn't see statements from Fiorini reported. But then I saw the following article.

Think Progress — “We need to pass the REINS Act so Congress is in charge of regulation,” Fiorina told the debate audience, referring to an obscure bill intended to hobble federal agency action. Though it is unlikely that many people in the audience know what the REINS Act is, this bill has long been one of the top priorities of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce — the primary lobbying group representing big business as a whole. Moreover, the bill has a fairly high chance of becoming law if Republicans gain control over both houses of Congress and the presidency. The bill passed the GOP-controlled House on multiple occasions.

The Congress is already known as the "do nothing Congress" and this would only make it worse.  This is an asinine suggestion from a business person who was a complete failure!  Click through for the remainder of the article about a bill that few know about.

My Universe — 

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Sep 012015
 

Here are the results of our “March 1 Leaders?” poll.  Politics Plus Polls are not scientific, because those who respond are not balanced according to demographic categories.   Therefore, we do not accurately reflect the makeup of the US population.  Nevertheless, our polls are usually factually accurate, and more often than not, they reflect thinking or will of the national majority.

0901Poll

Our Polling Host no longer allows us to copy and paste our comments made when taking the poll.  To read them, click here.

For the Clown Car, I was one of the 6 that picked other.  Republicans seen to follow a pattern where most of the losers have a day in the sun, before the nomination finally goes to the clown with the most donor/PAC money.  In this case, it’s Strike Three.  But God only knows which clown will lead at any point in time,

For the Democrats, I want it to be Bernie, but I voted Hillary.  She has the money, and her machine is already locking up super-delegates, that should not be allowed to exist, but that’s another article.

The new poll is up.  The idea comes from Jim Phillips.  Thank you Jim.  He left it in a comment yesterday.  I stole it and fleshed it out for the poll.  Enjoy and vote!

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Aug 162015
 

Here are the results of our “Why Hairball?” poll.  Politics Plus Polls are not scientific, because those who respond are not balanced according to demographic categories.   Therefore, we do not accurately reflect the makeup of the US population.  Nevertheless, our polls are usually factually accurate, and more often than not, they reflect thinking or will of the national majority.

0816Poll

Our Polling Host no longer allows us to copy and paste our comments made when taking the poll.  To read them, click here.

I voted fear, greed, hate sheeple and stupid.  It seemed self evident.

The new poll is up, and this one is more serious.  Please follow the instructions carefully, when you vote, and check two and only two boxes: one for each political party.  Thank you!

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Aug 012015
 

Here are the results of our “Republicns Blocking Peace” poll.  Politics Plus Polls are not scientific, because those who respond are not balanced according to demographic categories.   Therefore, we do not accurately reflect the makeup of the US population.  Nevertheless, our polls are usually factually accurate, and more often than not, they reflect thinking or will of the national majority.

0801Poll

Our Polling Host no longer allows us to copy and paste your comments made when taking the poll.  To read them, click here.

I voted no.  Although I strongly suspect that Congress will pass a bill to block the deal, Obama will veto it.  Republicans will not have enough votes to override the veto.

The new poll is up.  Please vote.

Editing error corrected.

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