Conventional wisdom, or phrased another way, media infoganda, would have us believe that Republicans will have a smooth sail to take over the Senate in less than three weeks Even though the following article does not quite challenge that notion, and it does point out some likely areas of contention, it’s really much closer than that.
The race for Senate control is very close and there’s a significant chance that Americans won’t know on election night which party controls the Senate.
It may even remain an open question until after the next Congress convenes on Jan. 3, 2015.
That uncertainty could spark chaos in the lame-duck session and hit pause on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) plans to redecorate the majority leader’s ornate suite.
Forecasters roundly give Republicans an edge to win the net six seats they need to claim the Senate majority. The New York Times sees a one-third chance that the race will end in a 50-50 tie or be decided by a one-seat margin.
Here are four plausible scenarios that could push the Senate fight into overtime.
1. Likely runoff in Louisiana
Bill Cassidy (R) holds a steady lead over Sen. Mary Laudrieu (D), but neither candidate is expected to cross the 50 percent threshold required by Louisiana’s "jungle primary" rules to claim victory on election night. Tea party candidate Rob Maness and two other candidates on the Nov. 4 ballot are collectively pulling 18 percent, according to the TPM PollTracker average.
If neither candidate wins an outright majority on the main ballot, a runoff election between the top two will take place on Dec. 6…
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This is just one race where a runoff is likely. Click through for three more and for a list of close races.
Rachel Maddow, on the other hand, thinks it’s a dead heat.
Rachel made two, key points. The first is that Republicans are bending over backward to try to steal this election. The second…