Yesterday, after looking into and at the State of the Union address, it was impressed upon me that someone – some journalist – some newspaper or website – should each year find out and make public all the guests invited by the legislators (and anyone else who is allowed an invite.) Legislators speak through their guests, sometimes well and sometimes not so well. But I’d like the opportunity to hear what they are all saying. Just two examples – one legislator invited the first person born through IVF in the US. My Senator Bennet invited the head of Ukrainians of Colorado. CPR News has learned and published the identities of the guests (if any) of all members of the Colorado delegation except two who had not decided. And that’s helpful. But I’d like to see more. Also yesterday, I heard from Barry Burton that Carrie has broken her leg and is in the hospital – there’s a steel bar on her femor now and a cast and a full leg brace over it. And she is not getting anywhere near the care I was getting. If anyone would like to call her, shoot me an email and I’ll send you her cell number. It’s not terribly new, but it has changed since she moved to Alabama. And in any case, thoughts and prayers will be appreciated
If you remember the Biblical story of the widow’s mite – you will have no trouble recognizing the similarity. I hope, wherever he is, that TC can see it or otherwise learn about it. (Hanky alert)
This is a referral from Wonkette. It does explain why I was going to be grieving over the Cakifornia Senate primary no matter what. I did know – because an email from Katie informed me – that losers of the primary would not be able to return to Congress. So, yes, we have lost Katie and we have lost Barbara Lee also. Of course it’s not impossible for her to run again in two years. But as a single mom who never took a penny of rich people’s money, it might be prohibitively difficult for her.
Yes, this is a BFD. And just think where it might be able to go from here. I’m thinking college football, since those players are in just as much danger from concussion as the pros – if not more, since they are younger and more fragile.
Yesterday, arguments about whether DiFi should resign came to an end with her passing. Governor Newsom has said he will make an interim appointment. Even Chuck Grassley said nice things about her. Since I was born and grew up in California, in the San Francisco Bay Area, this feels like the end of an era to me. I have known of her, and of her achievements, for so long – it’s true that at my age when someone who has been a fixture of one’s life for so long, one doesn’t grieve just that person, but also one’s own lost youth. Also, The White House made available online a partial transcript of Joe Biden’s speech at the John McCain Library in Tempe, AZ. There’s also an opportunity at this link to sign up for pratial transcripts whenever anyone in the administration says something significant. Wow. The first plea deal in the Fulton COunty case was sealed. And last (and kind of least compared to the preceding) my Dark Brandon mug came. So I immediately made a cup of coffee. And it works as advertised (what with being carried in a postal vehicle in the sun all day and then stuffed into a hot mailbox, the eyes were actually red when I opened it. The directions advised putting it in the freezer for a few minutes – which worked like a charm.)
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The Daily Beast – Why Are Republicans Playing Politics With Ukraine?
Quote – Over the course of more than 30 interviews with members of Congress, The Daily Beast set out to trace exactly how and why providing aid to Ukraine became such a controversial endeavor among Republicans. To Democrats, the $24 billion package in front of Congress right now is the best money Washington could spend on national defense…. The issue, many Republicans in Congress agree, shouldn’t be partisan. But these Republicans are also keenly aware of the reality—that it is…. The story of how that happened is a case study in the workings of a congressional GOP loyal to Donald Trump, one in which the former president and a small handful of right-wing figures wield immense power to set the agenda of the party base, which in turn commands immense power to shape the actions of lawmakers eager to use uncompromising tactics to achieve their goals. Click through for full article. One thing that leaps out – if the poll cited is accurate, and 55% of Americans nationally do not support aiding Ukreaine, we need to ne doing a better job of messaging. 62% Democratic support isn’t enough.
Colorado Public Radio – What the impending government shutdown means for Coloradans
Quote – Perhaps the biggest impacts will be felt by the state’s approximately 38,000 federal employees and 12,000 active duty military service members, who will not get a paycheck during a government shutdown. Their first missed payday will be October 13, if the shutdown drags on that long…. Gov. Jared Polis is ordering the Colorado Department of Natural Resources to develop a plan to use state money to keep the parks and other federal land in the state open, although any plan will need a federal sign off…. The governors of Arizona and Utah have also said they’ll use state funds to keep some of their parks open…. States that opened their parks in 2013 were never reimbursed…. When it comes to airport travel, a shutdown could fuel passenger exasperation and worsen staffing challenges at Denver International Airport…. Click through. As promised, here’s the shutdown article. Not every state is going to step in on National Parks (or anything else), and it’s not certain that Colorado is this time. But – like everything else – red states are going to suffer the most. And there’s more. CPR really looked at everything they could. It’s very thorough.
Experts in autocracies have pointed out that it is, unfortunately, easy to slip into normalizing the tyrant, hence it is important to hang on to outrage. These incidents which seem to call for the efforts of the Greek Furies (Erinyes) to come and deal with them will, I hope, help with that. As a reminder, though no one really knows how many there were supposed to be, the three names we have are Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone. These roughly translate as “unceasing,” “grudging,” and “vengeful destruction.”
So today is – or was – depending on when you get here – the first hurricane to land on California in living memory – and when I say living memory, I mean the people who were alive in California at the time of the Spanish conquest. And probably much longer – but we don’t have records on that. As a native of California myself, I didn’t feel that I could ignore this. But it’s an issue much bigger than California – after all, New York didn’t get hurricanes either – until it did. Climate change is bringing tropical storms out of tropical areas nd into the temperate zone. I don’t think it’s wise to wait until the first hurricane hits Alaska to read up on, and discuss, the subject.
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Hurricane Hilary triggers Southern California’s first tropical storm warning ever, with heavy rain and flash flooding forecast
Hurricane Hilary was a powerful Category 4 storm as it headed for Baja California on Aug. 18, 2023. NOAA NESDIS
Hurricane Hilary headed for Mexico’s Baja peninsula on Saturday, Aug. 19, 2023, and was forecast to speed into Southern California at or near tropical storm strength on Sunday. For the first time ever, the National Hurricane Center issued a tropical storm warning for large parts of Southern California and warned of a “potentially historic amount of rainfall” and “dangerous to locally catastrophic flooding.”
Hurricane scientist Nick Grondin explains how the storm, with help from El Niño and a heat dome over much of the country, could bring flash flooding, wind damage and mudslides to the U.S. Southwest.
How rare are tropical storms in the Southwest?
California has only had one confirmed tropical storm landfall in the past. It was in September 1939 and called the Long Beach Tropical Storm. It caused about US$2 million dollars in damage in the Los Angeles area – that would be about $44 million today. A hurricane in 1858 came close but didn’t make landfall, though its winds did significant damage to San Diego.
What the Southwest does see fairly regularly are the remnants of tropical cyclones, storms that continue on after a tropical cyclone loses its surface circulation. These remnant storms are more common in the region than people might think.
Just last year, Hurricane Kay took a similar track to the one Hurricane Hilary is on and brought significant rainfall to Southern California and Arizona. Famously, Hurricane Nora in 1997 made landfall in Mexico’s Baja California and kept moving north, bringing tropical storm-force winds to California and widespread flooding that caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage, particularly to fruit trees and agriculture.
The National Hurricane Center’s three-day rainfall forecast issued Aug. 19, 2023, shows rainfall totals that are well above what some areas typically receive in a year. National Hurricane Center
A study led by atmospheric scientist Elizabeth Ritchie in 2011 found that, on average, about 3.1 remnant systems from tropical cyclones affected the U.S. Southwest each year from 1992 to 2005. That’s a short record, but it gives you an idea of the frequency.
Typically, the remnants of tropical cyclones don’t go beyond California, Nevada and Arizona, though it wouldn’t be unprecedented. In this case, forecasters expect the effects to extend far north. The National Hurricane Center on Aug. 18 projected at least a moderate risk of flooding across large parts of Southern California, southern Nevada and far-western Arizona, and a high risk of flooding for regions east of San Diego.
During El Niño, the tropical Pacific is warmer than normal, and both the eastern and central Pacific tend to be more active with storms, as we saw in 2015 and 1997. Generally, hurricanes need at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit (27 degrees Celsius) to maintain their intensity. Normally, the waters off Southern California are much cooler. But with the high initial intensity of Hurricane Hilary over warm water to the south, and the fact that the storm is moving fast, forecasters think it might be able to survive the cooler water.
The influence of the heat dome is interesting. Meteorology researcher Kimberly Wood published a fantastic thread on X, formerly known as Twitter, describing the large-scale pattern around similar storms that have affected the southwestern United States. A common thread with these storms is the presence of a ridge, or high-pressure system, in the central U.S. When you have a high-pressure system like the heat dome covering much of the country, air is pushed down and warms significantly. Air around this ridge is moving clockwise. Meanwhile, a low-pressure system is over the Pacific Ocean with winds rotating counterclockwise. The result is that these winds are likely to accelerate Hilary northward into California.
Despite the rarity of tropical cyclones reaching California, numerical weather prediction models since the storm’s formation have generally shown Hilary likely to accelerate along the west coast of Baja California and push into Southern California.
What are the risks?
The threat of tropical storm-force winds led the National Hurricane Center to its first-ever tropical storm watch for Southern California on Aug. 18. However, water is almost always the primary concern with tropical storms. In California, that can mean flash flooding from extreme rainfall enhanced by mountains.
When a tropical storm plows up on a mountain, that can lead to more lifting, more condensation aloft and more rainfall than might otherwise be expected. It happened with Hurricane Lane in Hawaii in 2018 and can also happen in other tropical cyclone-prone locations with significant orographic, or mountain, effects, such as the west coast of Mexico.
In dry areas, heavy downpours can also trigger flash flooding. Forecasts on Aug. 18 showed Death Valley likely to get about 4 inches of rain over a three-day period from the storm – that’s about twice its average for an entire year. Death Valley National Park warned of flash flooding Aug. 19-22 and closed its visitor centers and campgrounds.
As Hurricane Hilary heads toward landfall in Baja California, forecasters are expecting dangerous flooding, storm surge and wind damage in Mexico before the storm reaches Southern California.
Keep in mind this is still an evolving situation. Forecasts can change, and all it takes is one band of rain setting up in the right spot to cause significant flooding. Those in the path of Hilary should refer to their local weather offices for additional information. This would include local National Weather Service offices in the United States and Servicio Meteorológico Nacional in Mexico.
This article was updated Aug. 19, 2023, with the National Hurricane Center upgrading the tropical storm watch to a tropical storm warning.
============================================================== Alecto, Megaera, and Tisiphone, no matter how far one lives from a coast, it’s time to start thinking about what to do in the event of a hurricane. If you’re separated from the coast by a tall mountain range, you may have a little extra time – but I doubt whether California’s coastal range (which we always belittlingly referred to as “the foothills”) are going to stop a storm. And the Mississippi River would appear to give any hurricane a straight route northwards. Anyone outside the US, I’m not knowledgeable enough to address.
Beau of the Fifth Column, who lives in Florida, has made many a video advising people there, and through the south and even the northeast, how to prepare. They include about everything you would think of and some things that you wouldn’t. He just made his first one for California. It includes tips on how to read the weather maps – excellent advice for a newbie – but I didn’t hear him mention having a plan for your pets in case evacuation becomes necessary. Well, maybe from fires, Californians will be aware of that.
Yesterday, (OK, actually the day before but I didn’t get the email from Joyce Vance until after midnight) Trump** advised the court that he wanted his very own SCIF built at Mar-a-Lago. He claimed it would be cheaper than his (and his SS) travel expenses to and fro (it wouldn’t.) But the main reason, IMO, is that if there were a SCIF on his property, he would think that gave him the right to keep any and all classified documents tht he touched. (Building it would also delay the proceedings indefinitely.) For a guy who has no balls when it comes to courage, he has balls the size of church bells when it comes to arrogance. Also yesterday (really) I took in a grocery order which contained everythingI had ordered – but cost $25 less than predicted the previous night when I placed it. I’m still a little confused, but I’ll take it. The thing that made me the happiest was – let me backtrack a little – this spring they came out with a new flavor of unsweetened seltzer in their house brand which I really, really like. Apparently so did everyone else, since for about three months I haven’t been able to order it – it’s been labeled “pickup only.” Finally this week it was available for delivery, but with a noet, “low inventory.” I ordered 2 12-packs, hoping to get one anyway, and received both. It’s called “blackberry citrus,” and it really does taste like that, only not sweet. Yum.
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Here’s an “Oregon leads the way” story. AP News – Post-GOP walkout, Oregon elections chief says lawmakers with 10 or more absences can’t run next term
Quote – Oregon Secretary of State LaVonne Griffin-Valade made the announcement in a news release to clear up confusion over how reelection rules would affect those senators. Under Measure 113, which was approved by voters in 2022, lawmakers with more than 10 unexcused absences were supposed to be disqualified from being reelected for the following term. But some Republicans raised questions over the measure’s vague wording, sparking confusion over what the consequences of the walkout would be for boycotting senators. “My decision honors the voters’ intent by enforcing the measure the way it was commonly understood when Oregonians added it to our state constitution,” Griffin-Valade said. Click through for story. Now that’s the kind of Secretary of State I want (and at this point have, though that hasn’t always been so.) There are some very spunky SoSes out there, mostly women.
Colorado Public Radio – ‘Hank the Tank,’ the California bear behind 21 home invasions, has been moved to Colorado
Quote – Tweet from Governor Jared Polis: “Today, wildlife biologists for the @CaliforniaDFW captured a large female black bear, who will be transferred to @animalsanctuary upon a one-time permission from @COParksWildlife and @coagriculture1. We welcome “Hank the Tank” (turned out to be Henrietta the Tank) to Colorado!” Click through for more details. While in the service, I worked with a Master Sergeant named Henrietta, and she preferred to be called Hank, so I’m very comfortable with “Hank the Tank” being female. (P.S. I also love my governor.)
Yesterday, I started work on cartoons for the second 10 days of June (I did finish framing and watermarking the ones for the first ten days Thursday.) I also discovered Randy Rainbow has a couple of new videos up. Neither is a parody, though – they are from the first album he has released. So I will get them into Video Threads, but on slow days. There are things that need to come first (like Mrs. Betty Bowers).
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The Daily Beast – The Massive Screwup That Could Let COVID Bypass Our Vaccines
Quote – The leading Western vaccine manufacturers are focusing on developing boosters specifically for the recent Omicron variant. But by the time these boosters are ready in the fall, Omicron is likely to have been replaced by a new and more dangerous variant. Two years ago the world worked together to develop highly effective messenger-RNA vaccines, and fast. Today there’s less money and less urgency, meaning vaccine development is slowing at precisely the moment the virus is speeding up. Click through for discussion. Like so many things, it appears to come down to Republicans.
CPR News – Elijah McClain’s mother attends signing of executive order on police reform, but says Biden’s plan wouldn’t have helped her son
Quote – The order, which affects federal law enforcement only, will create a national database of police misconduct, bans chokeholds and tracks data on use of force incidents for all federal law enforcement. It also orders new guidance on the use of substances, like ketamine, outside of a hospital setting…. “It would not have kept my son alive. If this executive order would have been in place on the day he died, he still would have died,” she said, in a phone interview from a bench on the White House lawn. “There needs to be so much more done on the state level.” Click through for more. If I may correct the headline, it’s not the plan which is insufficient – it’s that an executive order can only apply to federal law enforcement, and the cops who killed ELijah were state and/or municipal. (I still take Elijah’s death personally, having been a violinist myself in a previous lifetime.) She does say the President did the best he could.
US News and World Report – California Senate Advances Newsom-Sponsored Gun Bill Modeled After Texas’ Abortion Law
Quote – Among the bills is one proposed by Newsom that takes a cue from Texas’ abortion law, replicating its unusual mechanism, which deputizes private citizens as its enforcers. Gun manufacturers have largely been shielded from lawsuits associated with their product under federal law. The California rule would allow private citizens to sue anyone who manufactures, distributes or sells so-called “assault weapons” or ghost guns or parts in the state. And, just as importantly, it would provide incentive to do so, with an end goal of removing such weapons from circulation. CLick through for story. This comes the same week that Speaker Pelosi publicly stated that she would refuse to accept communion from Archbishop Cordileone as long as he was in contempt of the Pope’s directive to refuse communion to no one. If more California Democrats are going to start trolling Republicans in real time, I can’t wait to hear from Ted Lieu.
Yesterday (techncally, although it seems like the day before), I went out a bit after midnight to look at th eclipse I wasn’t expecting much bcause the forecast had been for 86% cloud cover. However, I was able to get a pretty good view, straight overhead. Impressive. I stayed until it looked like the thumbnali (close to that color too – maybe a wee bit more orange) and then went in as the temperature was close to single digits. And then went to bed and to sleep. And eventually woke up. And came here and posted. And I reached out to the campaign for the NYT gift link, but had already writtrn my remarks, and I didn’t re-do everything. Hope it isn’t too confusing.
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Daily Kos (Walter Einenkel) – FBI raids homes of Colorado election clerk and former Boebert campaign manager
Quote – On the morning of Nov. 16, the FBI conducted federally-authorized law enforcement actions into potential criminal activity by employees of the Mesa County Clerk and Recorder’s Office and others associated with those employees. The activity occurred in both Mesa and Garfield Counties at four separate locations. Investigators with the 21st Judicial District Attorney’s Office (Mesa County, Colo.) and the Colorado Attorney General’s Office assisted in the operations. No arrests were made, and the operations are related to ongoing investigations. Per order of a federal court, all documents related to these operations are sealed. Click through for what details are not sealed. I can’t tell you how happy this makes me.
Mother Jones – Disinformation Isn’t Just a Tech Problem. It’s a Social One, Too.
Quote – The rise of disinformation is the product of long-standing social problems, including income inequality, racism, and corruption, which can be easily exploited to spread false information online. “Saying that the disinformation is the problem—rather than a way in which the underlying problem shows itself—misses the point entirely,” the report quotes Mike Masnick, founder of Techdirt, as saying. Click through for story – I suppose it’s arguable which comes forst, like the chicken and the egg, but wi need to be fighint on every front, and even then, we will not be able to eliminate the monstr. We may be able to make it controllable.
New York Times – San Francisco’s Top Prosecutor Will Face a Recall Election
Quote (from his email, because I was paywalled out of NYT) – San Francisco voters elected me because of the promises I made: I promised to end cash bail. We’ve done it. I promised to reduce youth incarceration. It’s down by 50%. I promised to release innocent people from prison. We launched an independent commission to ensure no innocent person is languishing behind bars. I promised to hold police accountable. We filed homicide charges against the officer who shot and killed Keita O’Neill — the first time in our city’s history that homicide charges were brought against an on-duty police officer. Click through for the NYT story with a gift link – which means you are not paywalled out even if you are not a subscriber. And spread the word. Turnout is even more critical in recalls than any other election! And don’t cut the link – all that stuff is needed to pass the paywall.
cover. However, I was able to get a pretty good view, straight overhead. Impressive. I stayed until it looked like the thumbnali (close to that color too – maybe a wee bit more orange) and then went in as the temperature was close to single digits. And then went to bed and to sleep. And eventually woke up. And came here and posted. And I reached out to the campaign for the NYT gift link, but had already writtrn my remarks, and I didn’t re-do everything. Hope it isn’t too confusing.
