In 2008, I accurately predicted the winner in every state except Florida. In 2012, I accurately predicted the winner in every state. In 2016, I accurately predict that pigs will fly before I can do that well this year, in spite of several years experience as an opinion research professional at a market research firm.
There has never been an election like this before, so instead, I've painted what I consider to be a worst-case scenario. I put every state in Trump's column, unless I was confident of a Clinton win there. There are several such states in which I think Clinton will win, such as NV, and NC. The main reason I didn't give her Ohio is that Republican State governments there have a long history of counting more Republican votes in some districts than there are eligible voters.
The reason I did not strive for greater accuracy, is to show you that my worst case scenario is so close that complacency is not an option. Your vote is too important to waste. If I'm right about every state except FL and PA, the United States of America will die.
15 Responses to “Last Prediction for 2016 Presidential Election”
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This prediction sure doesn't make me sleep any better tonight or tomorrow night, TomCat. Media I trust (BBC, Dutch NRC) on this side of the Atlantic predict a loss for Clinton in Florida based on their averaging of the polls. So I'm hoping with all my heart that you're worse case predictions are wrong this time and Clinton wins in more states than you predict AND in Florida and Pennsylvania. Fingers crossed…
Well, there goes my lunch. I am concerned. Very concerned, and PRAY for a win for HRC!!
Pleeeeese!
I might point out too that this map really, really shows why many Republicans are making noises about sending delegates proportionate to the popular vote – but in blue states only. After the election is over, we can take a look at what that would have done to the electoral vote. Not now. But please, if you live in a blue state and republicans are suggesting this, resist it.
270 electoral votes are needed to win the election which means that if a candidate does not get the "270" number, the Twelfth Amendment requires the House of Representatives to immediately go into session to vote for president if no candidate for president receives a majority of the electoral votes (since 1964, 270 of the 538 electoral votes).
Two "maps" which show the differences between the blue vs. red states' electoral votes and are up in the air. TC's map in PP above is finished and shows a prediction per TC's "crystal ball".
MAP 1:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html
MAP 2:
http://www.270towin.com/
The Electoral College is an outdated way of counting and electing a President. It should be by popular vote totals.
I still contend and maintain that if there were a law requiring all citizens to vote, the GOP would become extinct.
Drumpf, courtesy of the GOP, has to be the worst candidate, in history, ever presented to the voters in USA.
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I agree\ and have been saying so for many years.
Hopefully, the Federal Bureau of Idiots Comey's letter to Congress that HE doesn't have anything else he can do to screw up the election will calm some nerves and pull out the Dems to vote for Hillary! I just read the letter and the tweet he sent out to try to save his job and freedumb! He will be lucky to get outta this without election tampering or something worse. Maybe he will be stuck changing Rump Dump Drumpf's diapers for next four years!
Vivian, I hereby nominate you for the presidency!
Perhaps the bigger question is …
Who did Comey's totally irresponsible letter damage more:
[1] Hillary
[2] The FBI
[3] The US
Went to dinner, last night, with another couple. His family is full of Trumpists! Despite my more rational "understanding" of what can motivate a person to tune out reality, and follow an exteremist blowhard, I am blown away by how soooo many can be caught up in the blatant frenzy of hores shit!
We mightn wind up becoming a more authoritarian country, just to keep a lid on the crazies that love his excuses for values!
I am very worried. Kentucky is not a swing state, but so many people that I know, who are otherwise sensible, are backing Trump. It amazes and saddens me. I shudder to think he mght win. Comey made matters worse with his big announcement eleven days before the election, I still hope he gets fired.
Have to say that I am worried too! Our news is filled with new information such as Drumpf Jr tweeting that Drumpf was the target of assassination in Nevada on the weekend. There was no gun and Drumpf was back at the bully pulpit within minutes. Me thinks Jr is trying to drum up support with a shot at Dems. I also heard part of a Drumpf stump speech where he railed against Clinton and the emails with his usual BS. That was after the 2nd Comey letter came out. With his penchant for lying, I am convinced that he knew that Comey stood with the first decision.
Canada is certainly anti Drumpf. Even the Conservatives (our version of Republicans only saner) have come out saying they do not support Drumpf.
TC, from your pen to God's ear!
Going to have to disagree with you on Nevada & North Carolina. I'm putting them in the Hillary column. (And it wouldn't surprise me if Nebraska's 2nd District went for her. Like Maine, they split by Districts.)
That gives her a solid 323, if my math is correct.
Actually I agree with you, but I put them in Trump's column, because I don;t feel certain about it.
Thanks all. Totally pooped hugs!