Few things matter more to the future of freedom in America is keeping the Republican Reich from gaining control of the Senate. The following article was published by the blog run by Nate Silver, the only person to outdo my 2012 election predictions. We both predicted every Senate race accurately. He predicted every state in the Presidential election. I predicted all but one. I can’t say, however, whether moving the blog from the New York Times to ESPN will effect his accuracy.
Dan Sullivan won the Republican nomination for Senate in Alaska on Tuesday night, finalizing our cast of Democratic and Republican candidates for the most competitive Senate races in November. Republicans, despite some close calls, nominated candidates mostly in the mainstream of the GOP, avoiding the fringe candidates who have hurt the party’s electoral prospects in the past.
Republicans look likely to pick up seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia — putting the party within three seats of the majority.
The map right now is simple: Control of the Senate will be decided in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana and North Carolina. Republicans must win at least half of these races.
Yet, we still can’t say with much confidence who will win the Senate. These are tight races.
In our latest FiveThirtyEight forecast, we gave Republicans no higher than a 60 percent chance of winning any of these six seats and no lower than a 40 percent chance… [emphasis added]
Inserted from <FiveThirtyEight>
Click through for a more detailed analysis of each race.
I picked three of the Democratic and found recent campaign ads for you. Here they are:
Mark Pryor (D-AR)
Mark Udall (D-CO)
Kay Hagen (D-NC)
Personally I liked Udall’s the most and Hagen’s the least, but whatever works.