The Senate Grab Bag

 Posted by at 12:04 am  Politics
Aug 222014

Few things matter more to the future of freedom in America is keeping the Republican Reich from gaining control of the Senate.  The following article was published by the blog run by Nate Silver, the only person to outdo my 2012 election predictions.  We both predicted every Senate race accurately. He predicted every state in the Presidential election.  I predicted all but one.  I can’t say, however, whether moving the blog from the New York Times to ESPN will effect his accuracy.


Dan Sullivan won the Republican nomination for Senate in Alaska on Tuesday night, finalizing our cast of Democratic and Republican candidates for the most competitive Senate races in November. Republicans, despite some close calls, nominated candidates mostly in the mainstream of the GOP, avoiding the fringe candidates who have hurt the party’s electoral prospects in the past.

Republicans look likely to pick up seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia — putting the party within three seats of the majority.

The map right now is simple: Control of the Senate will be decided in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana and North Carolina. Republicans must win at least half of these races.

Yet, we still can’t say with much confidence who will win the Senate. These are tight races.

In our latest FiveThirtyEight forecast, we gave Republicans no higher than a 60 percent chance of winning any of these six seats and no lower than a 40 percent chance… [emphasis added]

Inserted from <FiveThirtyEight>

Click through for a more detailed analysis of each race.

I picked three of the Democratic and found recent campaign ads for you.  Here they are:

Mark Pryor (D-AR)

Mark Udall (D-CO)

Kay Hagen (D-NC)


Personally I liked Udall’s the most and Hagen’s the least, but whatever works.

Your thoughts?


  8 Responses to “The Senate Grab Bag”

  1. I agree with you about liking Udall's ad the best. and Hagen's the least.

    I think that as we get closer to the elections, the TeapublicanTs will insert their feet even further into their mouths and choke themselves.

    That's my hope at least.

  2. Oklahoma is another place that needs a change in the races!!! If we could do something to get rid of the TpublicanTs in OK, this state would begin to look like it finally caught up with the rest of the country!!!

  3. I tend to agree with you on the Udall and Hagan ads.  Hagan comes across as a DINO, lacking decisiveness, and actually believing that Republicanus/Teabaggers can be trusted, which they can't.  Many of the Fourteener ads are in my opinion useless because you can't tell what the people are saying . . . too much ambient noise. Pryor's was ok and certainly bolstered Obamacare, but is that an election issue?  Maybe in his area.  But it might also leave the feeling with voters "Is he fit enough to serve?"

    Whatever happens, Democrats have to step up to the plate and swing all homeruns.  I hope Lundergan Grimes makes turtle soup in Kentucky!

  4. If they get control of the Senate we are in big trouble.

  5. Sorry, I had time to read this this morning, but not to watch the ads or to comment.  JL is right about the GMO labeling initiative, and it also may help that the crazies are having their fourth try at "personhood."  Each time that has been on the ballot, the margin of defeat was larger than the previous one.  I suspect that may bring women especially out to vote "NO!", "not only no but hell no" not being on the ballot.  The GOP may even have figured that out, sence they have been running lying internet ads saying "Mark Udall's extremism hurts women."  Through Google advertiser.  (Every time I see one I report it as "inappropriate," my premise being that false advertising is always inappropriate.)

    It sounds like Nate isn't worried about Tom Udall?  I am perhaps even more worried about him than I am about Mark.

  6. Thanks all.  I'm shot.  Just here to post and run.

  7. RealClearPolitics is blithely handing Kentucky to Mitch McConnell. If you look at the polls, however, he's not the shoo-in the pollsters are calling. I think that seat is very much up in the air.

    I also don't see Louisiana going GOP on Mary Landrieu. In the open primary, Landrieu beat the crap out of Cassidy.

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