Oct 072012
 

It’s getting closer as we are now within one month of election day, so here are my latest projections of the Presidential Race, plus I am adding close Senate Races for the first time.  If a candidate is 5% or more ahead in the average polls, I called that state for that candidate.  Especially because the most recent polls reflect public reactions to neither the Presidential debate, nor the drop in the unemployment rate, these numbers are subject to change.

President:

7ElecProjPres

Even States

 

 

 

State

EV

Obama

Romney

FL

29

47

45

NC

15

48

48

VA

13

48

46

This represents an electoral vote count of 290 to 191 in favor of Barack Obama.

The Senate:

7ElecProjSen

Even Senate

 

 

AZ

Carmona – D

43

 

Flake – R

43

CT

Murphy -D

48

 

McMahon – R

45

IN

Donnelly -D

40

 

Mourdock – R

38

MT

Tester – D

45

 

Rehberg – R

45

ND

Heitkamp – D

47

 

Berg – R

46

NV

Berkley – D

46

 

Heller – R

47

TN

Clayton – D

48

 

Corker – R

51

VA

Kaine – D

47

 

Allen – R

44

The current tally is:

Democratic 48

Republican 42

Independent 2

Undecided 8

Map credit: 270 to Win

Stats credit: ElectoralVote.com

In the Senate the two leading Independents are Bernie Sanders (VT) and Angus King (ME).  Bernie will caucus with the Democrats, and although King’s views are very close to the Democrats, he has not yet committed to caucus with either party.

I used statistics with Rasmussen excluded.  Polls determine their mix of Democrats, Republicans and Independents based on self-identification.  Because of the Republican shift to the extreme right, some former Republicans now self-identify as Independents, and some former Independents now self-identify as Democrats, reflecting a shift in the electorate.  Most polls are including more Democrats and fewer Republicans proportional to that shift in self-identification, as they should.  It seems that Rasmussen weights their sample with more Republicans that the actual demographics support, reflecting their Republican bias and skewed results.

Once again, these numbers are subject to change at a moments notice, so this is no reason to relax our efforts to send the Republican party the way of the Whigs.

Whomever you vote for, the most important vote in this election is yours.

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  16 Responses to “Election Projection–10/7/2012”

  1. 7-11 says 60 Obama / 40 Romney. They've nailed the last 3 elections. Look for a new polling method.

  2. In the Senate the two leading Independents are Bernie Sanders (VT) and Angus King (ME).

    Being born in Vermont, Bernie Sanders is the best advocate for the working man… I lived in Maine too and voted for Angus King for Governor years back…. I hope for a bright light of common sense…?

  3. I look forward to seeing the next Election Projection and the influence of the 1st debate and the good jobs numbers report.
     
    But whatever the polls, the only one that counts is the one at the polling stations on 06/11/2012!
     
    Don't be complacent.  Get out the vote!!!!!
     
    The old football cheer goes "Roll 'em back! roll 'em back!  Way back!"  Well, roll the Republican/Teabaggers into the annals of history never to be spoken about or heard from again!
     
    Vote Democratic 2012!!!!          Vote Obama/Biden 2012!!!!!

  4. I know it's not going well for the RepubliCONs because that rat-bastard Rep. John Shimkus (R-IL) has signs out with dark Blue backgrounds & a single row of red & white stars! How stupid does he think we are? Hmm, I Know these people..oh, crap…:(

  5. May you be proven to be a great oracle, Tom.

  6. Most important now– VOTE!!

  7. I so hope you are right about the Presidential race. Polls today show Rmoney ahead.  Hopefully, our prez will "show up" at the next debate.  I wish Bernie Sanders could be my senator.